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Co-main event · Title fight

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

Sat, Sep 19, 9:00 PM ET · Lightweight · 5 rounds · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · crypto.com Arena

Fight history: Arman Tsarukyan · Mauricio Ruffy

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

Lightweight, 5 rounds on UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 — a title fight. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Sep 17, 11:22 AM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Arman TsarukyanArman Tsarukyan23-3-0
vs
Mauricio RuffyMauricio Ruffy14-2-0
Model pickArman Tsarukyan · 56.5%Decision · round 3 or later (67%)
23-3-0Record14-2-0
12Tracked bouts6
56.5%Win chance43.5%

The model reads it 56% — nothing in either tracked record separates them cleanly, so the number rests on the model's wider inputs rather than a headline stat.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO44.5%
Submission10.8%
Decision44.8%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

18
R1
15
R2
67
R3+
Round 1
18.1%
Round 2
15.4%
Round 3 or later
66.5%
Goes the distance
44.8%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Arman Tsarukyan
23-3-0

5-0 in the last 5. 50% of wins come by finish; 58% of fights reach the judges.

+ 4 career knockouts in this corpus
+ 83% win rate across 12 tracked bouts
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
WDan HookerSubmission R2
WCharles OliveiraDecision R3
WBeneil DariushKO / TKO R1
WJoaquim SilvaKO / TKO R3
WDamir IsmagulovDecision R3
Mauricio Ruffy
14-2-0

4-1 in the last 5. 80% of wins come by finish; 17% of fights reach the judges.

+ Finishes fights — mostly by knockout
+ 4 career knockouts in this corpus
+ 83% win rate across 6 tracked bouts
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
WMichael ChandlerKO / TKO R1
WRafael FizievKO / TKO R2
LBenoit Saint DenisSubmission R2
WKing GreenKO / TKO R1
WJames LlontopDecision R3
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)
generated 2026-09-17T15:22:23Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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