Skip to main content
EducationalNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Today· Sep 17Pregame slateSettled· Sep 16
← Fight card

Bout 12 of 12

Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito

Sat, Sep 19, 5:30 PM ET · Featherweight · 3 rounds · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · crypto.com Arena

Fight history: Giga Chikadze · Joanderson Brito

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito

Featherweight, 3 rounds on UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Sep 17, 11:22 AM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Giga ChikadzeGiga Chikadze15-6-0
vs
Joanderson BritoJoanderson Brito19-5-1
Model pickJoanderson Brito · 65.8%Decision · round 3 or later (69%)
15-6-0Record19-5-1
12Tracked bouts10
34.2%Win chance65.8%

Joanderson Brito 86% of wins come by finish — and the matchup profiles as one that reaches the judges.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO26.9%
Submission12.8%
Decision60.3%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

16
R1
15
R2
69
R3+
Round 1
16.4%
Round 2
14.5%
Round 3 or later
69.1%
Goes the distance
60.3%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Giga Chikadze
15-6-0

1-4 in the last 5. 38% of wins come by finish; 67% of fights reach the judges.

+ 3 career knockouts in this corpus
+ Durable — most tracked fights reach the judges
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
LKevin VallejosKO / TKO R2
LDavid OnamaDecision R3
LArnold AllenDecision R3
WAlex CaceresDecision R3
LCalvin KattarDecision R5
Joanderson Brito
19-5-1

3-2 in the last 5. 86% of wins come by finish; 40% of fights reach the judges.

+ Finishes fights — mostly by submission
+ 3 career submission wins in this corpus
+ 3 career knockouts in this corpus
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
WJordan LeavittSubmission R1
WIsaac ThomsonDecision R3
LPat SabatiniDecision R3
LWilliam GomisDecision R3
WJack ShoreKO / TKO R2
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)
generated 2026-09-17T15:22:23Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

Other bouts on this card