Today· Sep 17Pregame slateSettled· Sep 16

Bout 9 of 12

Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan Gandra

Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET · Middleweight · 3 rounds · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · crypto.com Arena

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact

› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan Gandra

Middleweight, 3 rounds on UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2. The model read both fighters' histories.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Ozzy Diaz10-4-0

Ryan Gandra10-1-0

Model pickRyan Gandra · 75.8%KO / TKO · round 3 or later (45%)

10-4-0Record10-1-0

3Tracked bouts2

24.2%Win chance75.8%

Ryan Gandra wins 100% of tracked bouts to Diaz's 33%, finishes 100% of wins, and Diaz has been finished in 100% of losses — and the finish profile points to a knockout.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO44.5%

Submission17.5%

Decision37.9%

Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

R3+

Round 1

36.3%

Round 2

18.7%

Round 3 or later

45%

Goes the distance

37.9%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Ozzy Diaz

10-4-0

1-2 in the last 3. 0% of wins come by finish; 33% of fights reach the judges.

+ 3 tracked bouts — too few clear tendencies to call out

− Losses tend to come by finish rather than decision

Last 3 tracked

LAteba GautierKO / TKO R2

WDjorden SantosDecision R3

LZhang MingyangKO / TKO R1

Ryan Gandra

10-1-0

2-0 in the last 2. 100% of wins come by finish; 0% of fights reach the judges.

+ 2 tracked bouts — too few clear tendencies to call out

− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness

Last 2 tracked

WZach ReeseKO / TKO R1

WJose Daniel MedinaKO / TKO R1

Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931

Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255

Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d

corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

generated 2026-09-17T15:22:23Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

Simulation story

Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan Gandra

Who the model expects to win

How it ends

How far it goes

What the corpus knows about each of them

Where these numbers come from

Other bouts on this card