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Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira

Sat, Sep 19, 5:30 PM ET · Middleweight · 3 rounds · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · crypto.com Arena

Fight history: Edmen Shahbazyan · Brunno Ferreira

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira

Middleweight, 3 rounds on UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Sep 17, 11:22 AM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Edmen ShahbazyanEdmen Shahbazyan16-6-0
vs
Brunno FerreiraBrunno Ferreira15-4-0
Model pickEdmen Shahbazyan · 67.2%KO / TKO · round 3 or later (44%)
16-6-0Record15-4-0
15Tracked bouts10
67.2%Win chance32.8%

Edmen Shahbazyan finishes 78% of wins, and Ferreira has been finished in 75% of losses — and the finish profile points to a knockout.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO43.9%
Submission19.5%
Decision36.6%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

36
R1
21
R2
44
R3+
Round 1
36%
Round 2
20.5%
Round 3 or later
43.5%
Goes the distance
36.6%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Edmen Shahbazyan
16-6-0

3-2 in the last 5. 78% of wins come by finish; 27% of fights reach the judges.

+ Finishes fights — mostly by knockout
+ 6 career knockouts in this corpus
− Losses tend to come by finish rather than decision
Last 5 tracked
LBrendan AllenDecision R3
WAndre MunizKO / TKO R1
WAndre PetroskiDecision R3
WDylan BudkaKO / TKO R1
LGerald MeerschaertSubmission R2
Brunno Ferreira
15-4-0

3-2 in the last 5. 83% of wins come by finish; 20% of fights reach the judges.

+ Finishes fights — mostly by knockout
+ 3 career knockouts in this corpus
− Losses tend to come by finish rather than decision
Last 5 tracked
LIkram AliskerovDecision R3
LGregory RodriguesKO / TKO R1
WMarvin VettoriDecision R3
WJackson McVeySubmission R1
WArmen PetrosyanSubmission R2
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)
generated 2026-09-17T15:22:23Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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