Skip to main content
EducationalNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks
Today· Sep 17Pregame slateSettled· Sep 16
← Fight card

Bout 6 of 12

Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain

Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET · Bantamweight · 3 rounds · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · crypto.com Arena

Fight history: Marlon Vera · Charles Jourdain

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain

Bantamweight, 3 rounds on UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Sep 17, 11:22 AM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Marlon VeraMarlon Vera23-12-1
vs
Charles JourdainCharles Jourdain18-8-1
Model pickMarlon Vera · 55.5%Decision · round 3 or later (68%)
23-12-1Record18-8-1
26Tracked bouts16
55.5%Win chance44.5%

Marlon Vera 73% of wins come by finish, 26 tracked bouts against 16 — and the matchup profiles as one that reaches the judges.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO23.4%
Submission15.9%
Decision60.6%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

17
R1
15
R2
68
R3+
Round 1
16.7%
Round 2
15.2%
Round 3 or later
68.1%
Goes the distance
60.6%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Marlon Vera
23-12-1

1-4 in the last 5. 73% of wins come by finish; 58% of fights reach the judges.

+ Finishes fights — mostly by knockout
+ 4 career submission wins in this corpus
+ 7 career knockouts in this corpus
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
LDavid MartinezDecision R3
LAiemann ZahabiDecision R3
LDeiveson FigueiredoDecision R3
LSean O'MalleyDecision R5
WPedro MunhozDecision R3
Charles Jourdain
18-8-1

3-2 in the last 5. 67% of wins come by finish; 50% of fights reach the judges.

+ Finishes fights — mostly by submission
+ 4 career submission wins in this corpus
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
WKyler PhillipsDecision R3
WDavey GrantSubmission R1
WVictor HenrySubmission R2
LJean SilvaKO / TKO R2
LSean WoodsonDecision R3
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)
generated 2026-09-17T15:22:23Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

Other bouts on this card