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Main event · Title fight

Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van

Sat, Sep 19, 9:00 PM ET · Flyweight · 5 rounds · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · crypto.com Arena

Fight history: Alexandre Pantoja · Joshua Van

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van

Flyweight, 5 rounds on UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 — a title fight. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Sep 17, 11:22 AM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Alexandre PantojaAlexandre Pantoja30-6-0
vs
Joshua VanJoshua Van17-2-0
Model pickJoshua Van · 73.7%Decision · round 3 or later (74%)
30-6-0Record17-2-0
18Tracked bouts11
26.3%Win chance73.7%

Joshua Van wins 91% of tracked bouts to Pantoja's 78% — and the matchup profiles as one that reaches the judges.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO27.7%
Submission17.3%
Decision55.0%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

13
R1
14
R2
74
R3+
Round 1
12.5%
Round 2
13.8%
Round 3 or later
73.7%
Goes the distance
55.1%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Alexandre Pantoja
30-6-0

4-1 in the last 5. 57% of wins come by finish; 50% of fights reach the judges.

+ 6 career submission wins in this corpus
+ 78% win rate across 18 tracked bouts
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
LJoshua VanKO / TKO R1
WKai Kara-FranceSubmission R3
WKai AsakuraSubmission R2
WSteve ErcegDecision R5
WBrandon RoyvalDecision R5
Joshua Van
17-2-0

5-0 in the last 5. 40% of wins come by finish; 55% of fights reach the judges.

+ 4 career knockouts in this corpus
+ 91% win rate across 11 tracked bouts
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 5 tracked
WTatsuro TairaKO / TKO R5
WAlexandre PantojaKO / TKO R1
WBrandon RoyvalDecision R3
WBruno SilvaKO / TKO R3
WRei TsuruyaDecision R3
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)
generated 2026-09-17T15:22:23Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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