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Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski

Sat, Sep 19, 9:00 PM ET · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds · UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · crypto.com Arena

Fight history: Alonzo Menifield · Iwo Baraniewski

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact
Skip to the report ↓
› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski

Light Heavyweight, 3 rounds on UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2. The model read both fighters' histories.

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64dno run count recordedproduced Sep 17, 11:22 AM ET
Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Alonzo MenifieldAlonzo Menifield18-6-1
vs
Iwo BaraniewskiIwo Baraniewski9-0-0
Model pickIwo Baraniewski · 74.5%KO / TKO · round 3 or later (48%)
18-6-1Record9-0-0
17Tracked bouts3
25.6%Win chance74.5%

Iwo Baraniewski wins 100% of tracked bouts to Menifield's 65%, finishes 100% of wins, and Menifield has been finished in 67% of losses — and the finish profile points to a knockout.

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO46.9%
Submission13.9%
Decision39.2%
Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

33
R1
18
R2
48
R3+
Round 1
33.3%
Round 2
18.4%
Round 3 or later
48.4%
Goes the distance
39.2%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Alonzo Menifield
18-6-1

3-2 in the last 5. 64% of wins come by finish; 35% of fights reach the judges.

+ Finishes fights — mostly by knockout
+ 5 career knockouts in this corpus
− Losses tend to come by finish rather than decision
Last 5 tracked
WZhang MingyangKO / TKO R1
LVolkan OezdemirKO / TKO R1
WOumar SyDecision R3
WJulius WalkerDecision R3
LAzamat MurzakanovKO / TKO R2
Iwo Baraniewski
9-0-0

3-0 in the last 3. 100% of wins come by finish; 0% of fights reach the judges.

+ Finishes fights — mostly by knockout
+ 3 career knockouts in this corpus
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 3 tracked
WJunior TafaKO / TKO R1
WAusten LaneKO / TKO R1
WIbo AslanKO / TKO R1
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)
generated 2026-09-17T15:22:23Z

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

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