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Bout 3 of 13

Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Pérez

Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM ET · Lightweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Rogers Place

Started · not saveable

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact

› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Pérez

Lightweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott. The model read both fighters' histories.

How much history is behind this. Cristian Pérez has no tracked UFC bouts in our corpus, so this read leans on Kyle Nelson's 11 tracked bouts and on league-average priors for Cristian Pérez. Treat it as weaker than a bout where both fighters have at least 2 tracked bouts.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Kyle Nelson17-7-1

Cristian Pérez15-2-0

Model pickCristian Pérez · 63.1%Decision · round 3 or later (51%)

17-7-1Record15-2-0

11Tracked bouts0

36.9%Win chance63.1%

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO37.5%

Submission17.0%

Decision45.5%

Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

R3+

Round 1

34.1%

Round 2

15%

Round 3 or later

50.9%

Goes the distance

45.5%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Kyle Nelson

17-7-1

Tracked record

3-2 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 2 of 5 wins came by finish (40%); 4 of 11 tracked fights reached the judges (36%).

Tendencies

· Most losses come inside the distance — 5 of 6 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)

Not established

? Neither a strength nor a weakness: 45% win rate across 11 tracked bouts (5-6)

Last 5 tracked

LTerrance McKinneyKO / TKO R1

WMatt FrevolaDecision R3

LSteve GarciaKO / TKO R1

WBill AlgeoKO / TKO R1

WFernando PadillaDecision R3

Cristian Pérez

15-2-0

Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931

Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255

Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d

corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

generated Oct 17, 10:02 AM ET

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

Simulation story

Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Pérez

Who the model expects to win

How it ends

How far it goes

What the corpus knows about each of them

Where these numbers come from

Other bouts on this card