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Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM ET · W Flyweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Rogers Place

Fight history: Erin Blanchfield · Jasmine Jasudavicius

Started · not saveable

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact

› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

W Flyweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott. The model read both fighters' histories.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Erin Blanchfield14-2-0

Jasmine Jasudavicius15-4-0

Model pickErin Blanchfield · 72.6%Decision · round 3 or later (81%)

14-2-0Record15-4-0

9Tracked bouts12

72.6%Win chance27.4%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Erin Blanchfield has won 8 of 9 tracked bouts (89%) to Jasudavicius's 9 of 12 (75%). The model's method read makes a decision more likely than not (71%).

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO9.3%

Submission19.4%

Decision71.3%

Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

R3+

Round 1

8.8%

Round 2

10.5%

Round 3 or later

80.7%

Goes the distance

71.3%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Erin Blanchfield

14-2-0

Tracked record

4-1 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 4 of 8 wins came by finish (50%); 5 of 9 tracked fights reached the judges (56%).

Strengths · weaknesses

+ 89% win rate across 9 tracked bouts (8-1)

Tendencies

· 4 submission wins across 9 tracked bouts

Not established

? Only 1 tracked loss — too few to say how fights are lost; absence of data, not absence of weakness

Last 5 tracked

WTracy CortezSubmission R2

WRose NamajunasDecision R5

LManon FiorotDecision R5

WTaila SantosDecision R3

WJessica AndradeSubmission R2

Jasmine Jasudavicius

15-4-0

Tracked record

4-1 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 3 of 9 wins came by finish (33%); 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges (67%).

Strengths · weaknesses

+ 75% win rate across 12 tracked bouts (9-3)

Tendencies

· Often goes the distance — 8 of 12 tracked fights reached the judges

· 3 submission wins across 12 tracked bouts

Last 5 tracked

WKarine SilvaDecision R3

LManon FiorotKO / TKO R1

WJessica AndradeSubmission R1

WMayra Bueno SilvaDecision R3

WAriane da SilvaSubmission R3

Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931

Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255

Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d

corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

generated Oct 17, 10:02 AM ET

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

Simulation story

Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

Who the model expects to win

How it ends

How far it goes

What the corpus knows about each of them

Where these numbers come from

Other bouts on this card