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Bout 12 of 13

Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden

Sat, Oct 17, 5:00 PM ET · W Bantamweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Rogers Place

Started · not saveable

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact

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Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden

W Bantamweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott. The model read both fighters' histories.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Chelsea Chandler7-4-0

Melissa Croden8-3-0

Model pickMelissa Croden · 56.3%Decision · round 3 or later (66%)

7-4-0Record8-3-0

6Tracked bouts3

43.7%Win chance56.3%

From the tracked records (a summary, not the model's reasoning): Melissa Croden has won 2 of 3 tracked bouts (67%) to Chandler's 3 of 6 (50%). The model's method read makes a decision more likely than not (57%).

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO25.4%

Submission17.6%

Decision57.0%

Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

R3+

Round 1

20.3%

Round 2

14%

Round 3 or later

65.7%

Goes the distance

57%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Chelsea Chandler

7-4-0

Tracked record

2-3 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 2 of 3 wins came by finish (67%); 3 of 6 tracked fights reached the judges (50%).

Tendencies

· Most wins come inside the distance — 2 of 3, by KO/TKO and submission alike (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission)

Not established

? Neither a strength nor a weakness: 50% win rate across 6 tracked bouts (3-3)

Last 5 tracked

WPriscila CachoeiraSubmission R1

LJoselyne EdwardsKO / TKO R1

LYana SantosDecision R3

WJosiane NunesDecision R3

LNorma DumontDecision R3

Melissa Croden

8-3-0

Tracked record

2-1 in the last 3 tracked bouts. 1 of 2 wins came by finish (50%); 2 of 3 tracked fights reached the judges (67%).

Not established

? Only 3 tracked bouts — too few to call a strength or weakness (needs 5)

? Only 1 tracked loss — too few to say how fights are lost; absence of data, not absence of weakness

Last 3 tracked

WDaria ZhelezniakovaDecision R3

LLuana SantosDecision R3

WTainara LisboaKO / TKO R3

Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931

Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255

Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d

corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

generated Oct 17, 10:02 AM ET

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

Simulation story

Chelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden

Who the model expects to win

How it ends

How far it goes

What the corpus knows about each of them

Where these numbers come from

Other bouts on this card