Skip to main content
Educational analyticsNot betting advice · research use only.
GameTime Picks

Bout 8 of 13

Julien LeBlanc vs Nick Galanti

Sat, Oct 17, 5:00 PM ET · Middleweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Rogers Place

No simulation story for this event: Neither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.

No model read for this bout. Neither fighter has enough UFC history in our corpus to build a read from.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Julien LeBlancJulien LeBlanc10-3-0
vs
Nick GalantiNick Galanti8-1-0
10-3-0Record8-1-0
1Tracked bouts0
The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Julien LeBlanc
10-3-0
Tracked record

0-1 in the last 1 tracked bout. No tracked wins; 0 of 1 tracked fight reached the judges (0%).

Not established
? Only 1 tracked bout — too few to name a strength, weakness or tendency
Last 1 tracked
LRobert ValentinSubmission R1
Nick Galanti
8-1-0
Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)
generated

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

More

Other bouts on this card