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Bout 10 of 13

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller

Sat, Oct 17, 5:00 PM ET · W Flyweight · 3 rounds · UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Rogers Place

Started · not saveable

Simulation story

6 chapters · read from the published artifact

› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller

W Flyweight, 3 rounds on UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott. The model read both fighters' histories.

How much history is behind this. Mackenzie Stiller has no tracked UFC bouts in our corpus, so this read leans on Katlyn Cerminara's 17 tracked bouts and on league-average priors for Mackenzie Stiller. Treat it as weaker than a bout where both fighters have at least 2 tracked bouts.

Winner

Who the model expects to win

Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.

Katlyn Cerminara18-6-0

Mackenzie Stiller6-1-0

Model pickKatlyn Cerminara · 66.9%Decision · round 3 or later (84%)

18-6-0Record6-1-0

17Tracked bouts0

66.9%Win chance33.2%

Method

How it ends

Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.

KO / TKO12.8%

Submission8.1%

Decision79.2%

Round

How far it goes

R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.

R3+

Round 1

9.1%

Round 2

7.1%

Round 3 or later

83.8%

Goes the distance

79.2%

“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.

The fighters

What the corpus knows about each of them

Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.

Katlyn Cerminara

18-6-0

Tracked record

3-2 in the last 5 tracked bouts. 0 of 11 wins came by finish (0%); 15 of 17 tracked fights reached the judges (88%).

Tendencies

· Wins rarely come inside the distance — 0 of 11

· Often goes the distance — 15 of 17 tracked fights reached the judges

Not established

? Neither a strength nor a weakness: 65% win rate across 17 tracked bouts (11-6)

Last 5 tracked

LMaycee BarberDecision R3

LManon FiorotDecision R3

WAmanda RibasDecision R3

WJennifer MaiaDecision R3

WViviane AraujoDecision R3

Mackenzie Stiller

6-1-0

Method

Where these numbers come from

Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each tested on past fights it never trained on before it was published. This is an experimental model: winner forecasts are graded on every new card, method and round are not yet graded, and it has not been shown to have an edge over the market.

Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931

Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255

Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549

model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d

corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)

generated Oct 17, 10:02 AM ET

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.

Simulation story

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller

Who the model expects to win

How it ends

How far it goes

What the corpus knows about each of them

Where these numbers come from

Other bouts on this card