Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead
Welterweight, 3 rounds on UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang. The model read both fighters' histories.
Bout 11 of 14
Jacobe Smith vs Bruce Whitehead
Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET · Welterweight · 3 rounds · UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · Delta Center
Fight history: Jacobe Smith
Started · not saveable
Simulation story
6 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
How much history is behind this. One fighter has no UFC history in our corpus, so this read leans on the established fighter's record and league-average priors for the newcomer. Treat it as weaker than a bout where both sides are known.
Winner
Who the model expects to win
Probabilities over the two fighters, from the head that was evaluated on its own preregistered bar.
Jacobe Smith12-0-0vs
Bruce Whitehead8-2-0Model pickJacobe Smith · 72.8%Decision · round 3 or later (46%)
12-0-0Record8-2-0
3Tracked bouts0
72.8%Win chance27.2%
Method
How it ends
Read among fights that end with a winner — a draw or no-contest sits outside this sample, so the three add to 100%.
KO / TKO38.6%
Submission21.9%
Decision39.4%
Round
How far it goes
R3+ carries every fight that reaches the judges as well as every round-3-or-later finish.
35R1
18R2
46R3+
Round 1
35.4%
Round 2
18.1%
Round 3 or later
46.5%
Goes the distance
39.4%
“Goes the distance” is the method head’s decision probability, not a separate model — so it cannot disagree with the bar above it.
The fighters
What the corpus knows about each of them
Tracked bouts only — a fight outside the corpus is not counted, and a thin record says so.
Jacobe Smith
12-0-0
3-0 in the last 3. 100% of wins come by finish; 0% of fights reach the judges.
+ Finishes fights — mostly by knockout
− Too few tracked losses to name a pattern — absence of data, not absence of weakness
Last 3 tracked
WJosiah HarrellKO / TKO R1
WNiko PriceSubmission R2
WPreston ParsonsKO / TKO R1
Bruce Whitehead
8-2-0
Method
Where these numbers come from
Three separate heads — winner, method and round — each fitted on a corpus of tracked UFC fights and each published only on its own PASS verdict against a bar frozen before it was fitted. This is the one model on the site that beat its baseline on every head it was tested on.
Winner 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 50% · log loss 0.6615 against 0.6931
Method 52.7% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 46.7% · log loss 0.9692 against 1.0255
Round 60.6% accurate over 3,557 held-out fights · baseline 55.3% · log loss 0.9148 against 0.9549
model ufc-fight-model@e657fc40b64d
corpus 8,642 fights · 1994-03-11 to 2026-08-08 · scrape_ufc_stats (GPL-3.0)
generated 2026-10-03T15:05:53Z
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other bouts on this card
- Natalia Silva vs Wang CongW Flyweight · Natalia Silva 71.8%
- Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton TalbottBantamweight · Payton Talbott 76.3%
- King Green vs Esteban RibovicsLightweight · Esteban Ribovics 59.8%
- Roberto Soldić vs Khaos WilliamsWelterweight · Khaos Williams 67.1%
- Roman Kopylov vs Ateba GautierMiddleweight · Ateba Gautier 83.1%
- Alden Coria vs Imanol RodriguezFlyweight · Alden Coria 59.1%
- Andrey Pulyaev vs Damian PinasMiddleweight · Damian Pinas 77.1%
- Anthony Romero vs Marcus McGheeFeatherweight · Marcus McGhee 74.3%
- Anthony Wint vs Lucas ArmandHeavyweight · no model read
- Johnny Walker vs Mick ParkinHeavyweight · Mick Parkin 64.4%
- Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander HernandezLightweight · Alexander Hernandez 59.9%
- Marvin Vettori vs Ismail NaurdievMiddleweight · Ismail Naurdiev 50.1%
- Court McGee vs Eric NolanWelterweight · Court McGee 97.6%