NFL · Passing yards
159 forecasts published · 120 measured · 0 not final · 39 void or not measurable. Models: not recorded by this forecast's record.
70.7average miss (n 120)
56.7median miss
90.7root-mean-square miss
-28.0bias (+ = we projected high)
81.7%inside our 80% range (n 120) — about 80% is the target, higher is not better
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 159. Download all 159 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Bryce Young · CAR | 232.9 (range 129.7–380.5) published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | line 244.5 | Actual 329 | missed by 96.1 · inside range |
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | Jared Goff · DET | 244.9 (range 139.5–393.8) published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | line 260.5 | Actual 412 | missed by 167.1 · outside range |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Sam Darnold · SEA | 172.0 (range 88.0–298.0) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | line 233.5 | Actual 168 | missed by 4.0 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Patrick Mahomes · KC | 238.6 (range 132.5–390.7) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | line 237.5 | Actual 225 | missed by 13.6 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | Justin Herbert · LAC | 213.7 (range 115.8–355.8) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | line 200.5 | Actual 189 | missed by 24.7 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Bo Nix · DEN | 206.5 (range 113.5–340.5) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | line 223.5 | Actual 214 | missed by 7.5 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | Kirk Cousins · LV | 213.4 (range 116.8–352.7) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | line 222.5 | Actual 365 | missed by 151.6 · outside range |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | Brock Purdy · SF | 251.3 (range 138.0–414.5) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | line 235.5 | Actual 218 | missed by 33.3 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 MIA @ MIN | Kyler Murray · MIN | 111.4 (range 51.9–205.3) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | line 204.5 | Actual 247 | missed by 135.6 · outside range |
| 2026-10-04 MIA @ MIN | Malik Willis · MIA | 217.7 (range 115.7–367.3) published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | line 169.5 | Actual 85 | missed by 132.7 · outside range |
| 2026-10-04 ARI @ NYG | Jameis Winston · NYG | 154.5 (range 78.1–269.9) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 206.5 | Actual 250 | missed by 95.5 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 TEN @ BAL | Lamar Jackson · BAL | 239.5 (range 126.5–406.0) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 216.5 | Actual 222 | missed by 17.5 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 LAR @ PHI | Matthew Stafford · LAR | 250.0 (range 139.9–407.0) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 250.5 | Actual 317 | missed by 67.0 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 LAR @ PHI | Jalen Hurts · PHI | 205.4 (range 111.1–342.4) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 187.5 | Actual 93 | missed by 112.4 · outside range |
| 2026-10-04 NE @ BUF | Drake Maye · NE | 211.1 (range 112.8–355.0) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 229.5 | Actual 269 | missed by 57.9 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 TEN @ BAL | Cam Ward · TEN | 178.4 (range 96.2–298.2) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 186.5 | Actual 222 | missed by 43.6 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 NYJ @ CHI | Geno Smith · NYJ | 229.0 (range 129.3–370.5) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 227.5 | Actual 119 | missed by 110.0 · outside range |
| 2026-10-04 DAL @ HOU | C.J. Stroud · HOU | 218.3 (range 121.8–355.9) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 244.5 | Actual 347 | missed by 128.7 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 NE @ BUF | Josh Allen · BUF | 237.0 (range 128.4–394.7) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 241.5 | Actual 253 | missed by 16.0 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 JAX @ CIN | Joe Burrow · CIN | 230.8 (range 131.3–371.3) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 272.5 | Actual 428 | missed by 197.2 · outside range |
| 2026-10-04 JAX @ CIN | Trevor Lawrence · JAX | 219.5 (range 118.9–365.6) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 257.5 | Actual 227 | missed by 7.5 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 NYJ @ CHI | Case Keenum · CHI | 229.6 (range 129.4–371.9) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-10-04 DAL @ HOU | Dak Prescott · DAL | 228.2 (range 128.5–369.8) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 267.5 | Actual 335 | missed by 106.8 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 ARI @ NYG | Jacoby Brissett · ARI | 206.5 (range 118.7–329.7) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 229.5 | Actual 166 | missed by 40.5 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 GB @ TB | Jordan Love · GB | 220.8 (range 120.8–365.2) published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | line 241.5 | Actual 197 | missed by 23.8 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 IND @ WSH | Daniel Jones · IND | 205.6 (range 113.4–338.4) published 2026-10-03 23:32Z | line 219.5 | Actual 143 | missed by 62.6 · inside range |
| 2026-10-04 IND @ WSH | Marcus Mariota · WSH | 150.9 (range 76.1–264.0) published 2026-10-03 23:32Z | line 207.5 | Actual 46 | missed by 104.9 · outside range |
| 2026-10-02 PIT @ CLE | Aaron Rodgers · PIT | 204.0 (range 113.0–334.5) published 2026-10-01 22:30Z | — | Actual 299 | missed by 95.0 · inside range |
| 2026-10-02 PIT @ CLE | Deshaun Watson · CLE | 203.3 (range 110.5–337.9) published 2026-10-01 22:30Z | — | Actual 268 | missed by 64.7 · inside range |
| 2026-09-29 PHI @ CHI | Jalen Hurts · PHI | 215.4 (range 117.7–356.8) published 2026-09-28 22:24Z | line 217.5 | Actual 153 | missed by 62.4 · inside range |
| 2026-09-29 PHI @ CHI | Tanner McKee · PHI | 73.6 (range 28.8–150.6) published 2026-09-28 22:24Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-28 LAR @ DEN | Bo Nix · DEN | 214.3 (range 118.8–351.3) published 2026-09-28 00:17Z | line 211.5 | Actual 186 | missed by 28.3 · inside range |
| 2026-09-28 LAR @ DEN | Jarrett Stidham · DEN | 87.2 (range 37.5–168.8) published 2026-09-28 00:17Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-28 LAR @ DEN | Matthew Stafford · LAR | 241.9 (range 133.0–398.8) published 2026-09-28 00:17Z | line 239.5 | Actual 390 | missed by 148.1 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 LV @ NO | Spencer Rattler · NO | 154.7 (range 81.6–262.3) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-27 BAL @ DAL | Dak Prescott · DAL | 225.1 (range 126.1–366.2) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | line 266.5 | Actual 276 | missed by 50.9 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 BAL @ DAL | Lamar Jackson · BAL | 242.8 (range 129.3–409.3) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | line 240.5 | Actual 186 | missed by 56.8 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 LV @ NO | Kirk Cousins · LV | 209.0 (range 114.2–346.1) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | line 212.5 | Actual 248 | missed by 39.0 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 BAL @ DAL | Tyler Huntley · BAL | 120.5 (range 57.7–217.9) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-27 LV @ NO | Tyler Shough · NO | 241.4 (range 138.5–386.2) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | line 253.5 | Actual 255 | missed by 13.6 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 MIN @ TB | Baker Mayfield · TB | 207.1 (range 114.6–339.9) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | line 214.5 | Actual 217 | missed by 9.9 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 MIN @ TB | Max Brosmer · MIN | 83.5 (range 35.7–162.5) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-27 ARI @ SF | Brock Purdy · SF | 240.7 (range 134.2–393.0) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | line 236.5 | Actual 297 | missed by 56.3 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 MIN @ TB | J.J. McCarthy · MIN | 173.8 (range 88.6–301.8) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-27 MIN @ TB | Carson Wentz · MIN | 183.0 (range 94.5–314.9) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-27 ARI @ SF | Jacoby Brissett · ARI | 203.6 (range 114.1–331.2) published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | line 228.5 | Actual 280 | missed by 76.4 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 CIN @ PIT | Aaron Rodgers · PIT | 188.5 (range 104.7–308.6) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 218.5 | Actual 292 | missed by 103.5 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 CAR @ CLE | Deshaun Watson · CLE | 229.0 (range 126.7–375.8) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 194.5 | Actual 144 | missed by 85.0 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ IND | Daniel Jones · IND | 202.7 (range 110.9–335.4) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 213.5 | Actual 235 | missed by 32.3 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 CAR @ CLE | Shedeur Sanders · CLE | 193.6 (range 102.7–327.1) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Actual 0 | missed by 193.6 · outside range |
| 2026-09-27 LAC @ BUF | Justin Herbert · LAC | 215.6 (range 116.8–359.0) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 226.5 | Actual 226 | missed by 10.4 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 SEA @ WSH | Drew Lock · SEA | 161.1 (range 80.8–282.8) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-27 LAC @ BUF | Josh Allen · BUF | 240.9 (range 131.6–398.9) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 239.5 | Actual 204 | missed by 36.9 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ IND | Riley Leonard · IND | 84.0 (range 35.0–165.8) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-27 NYJ @ DET | Jared Goff · DET | 240.5 (range 136.5–387.6) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 260.5 | Actual 269 | missed by 28.5 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 NE @ JAX | Trevor Lawrence · JAX | 227.8 (range 123.7–378.9) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 228.5 | Actual 182 | missed by 45.8 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ IND | Davis Mills · HOU | 142.5 (range 72.9–246.9) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | — | Not measurable — no official line | — |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ IND | C.J. Stroud · HOU | 223.7 (range 125.8–362.8) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 238.5 | Actual 167 | missed by 56.7 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 TEN @ NYG | Jameis Winston · NYG | 141.5 (range 69.0–253.1) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 203.5 | Actual 118 | missed by 23.5 · inside range |
| 2026-09-27 SEA @ WSH | Marcus Mariota · WSH | 126.3 (range 59.9–230.1) published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | line 169.5 | Actual 183 | missed by 56.7 · inside range |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.