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Overview MLB· live NFL· week report NBA· Official Forecast record Parlays· pending snapshots

Results · one day

Monday, October 12

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 2–2 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 2 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.

LAD @ MIL
Final · LAD 4 – 7 MIL
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner LAD (away) Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7 Win
Run line (posted line) LAD -1.5 Loss
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 15–21 · 4 void →
CLE @ TB
Final · CLE 7 – 3 TB
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner CLE (away) Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6.5 Win
Run line (posted line) CLE +1.5 Win
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 24–17 · 2 void →

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	LAD (away)	Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 7	Win
Run line (posted line)	LAD -1.5	Loss

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	CLE (away)	Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 6.5	Win
Run line (posted line)	CLE +1.5	Win

NFL · 0–1 game winners

Full NFL record →

Model Performance:Winner →

BUF @ LAR

Final · BUF 37 – 34 LAR

Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official final score

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	LAR (home)	Loss

Player ranges · 25 of 30 finals landed inside the printed range

A coverage record, not wins and losses: a range is “inside” when the player's final landed within it as printed.

Player	Stat	Range	Final	Inside?
James Cook III · BUF	Receptions	0–4	1	Inside
James Cook III · BUF	Receiving yards	0–39	7	Inside
James Cook III · BUF	Rushing yards	29–133	111	Inside
Josh Allen · BUF	Rushing yards	4–56	121	Outside
Josh Allen · BUF	Passing yards	129–393	210	Inside
Kyren Williams · LAR	Receptions	1–7	6	Inside
Kyren Williams · LAR	Receiving yards	1–58	27	Inside
Kyren Williams · LAR	Rushing yards	23–116	49	Inside
Puka Nacua · LAR	Receptions	3–13	17	Outside
Puka Nacua · LAR	Receiving yards	18–122	138	Outside
Davante Adams · LAR	Receptions	2–9	5	Inside
Davante Adams · LAR	Receiving yards	9–106	51	Inside
Blake Corum · LAR	Rushing yards	6–70	19	Inside
Khalil Shakir · BUF	Receptions	1–9	3	Inside
Khalil Shakir · BUF	Receiving yards	9–89	80	Inside
Dalton Kincaid · BUF	Receptions	1–7	1	Inside
Dalton Kincaid · BUF	Receiving yards	4–87	7	Inside
Keon Coleman · BUF	Receptions	1–6	1	Inside
Keon Coleman · BUF	Receiving yards	2–83	7	Inside
Ty Johnson · BUF	Receptions	0–5	4	Inside
Ty Johnson · BUF	Receiving yards	0–53	72	Outside
Ty Johnson · BUF	Rushing yards	0–19	0	Inside
Tyler Higbee · LAR	Receptions	0–5	5	Inside
Tyler Higbee · LAR	Receiving yards	0–58	83	Outside
Konata Mumpfield · LAR	Receptions	0–4	—	Not graded
Konata Mumpfield · LAR	Receiving yards	0–42	—	Not graded
Colby Parkinson · LAR	Receptions	0–4	1	Inside
Colby Parkinson · LAR	Receiving yards	0–38	3	Inside
Dawson Knox · BUF	Receptions	0–3	1	Inside
Dawson Knox · BUF	Receiving yards	0–37	6	Inside
Ronnie Rivers · LAR	Rushing yards	0–27	—	Not graded
Matthew Stafford · LAR	Rushing yards	0–23	0	Inside
Matthew Stafford · LAR	Passing yards	143–404	383	Inside
Tyrell Shavers · BUF	Receiving yards	0–41	—	Not graded

Premier League · 0–1 match results

Full Premier League record →

Model Performance:Match result →

Coventry City v Newcastle United
Final · Result: home win (4-1)
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official result
Call Pick Outcome
Match result away win Loss

Call	Pick	Outcome
Match result	away win	Loss

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

Published Mon, Oct 12, 3:49 PM ET · first kickoff Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

1. James Cook III BUF v LARScored
Projection 68.2% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 2 games on our boards
Game receipt →
2. Josh Allen BUF v LARScored
Projection 63.3% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 3 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
3. Kyren Williams LAR v BUFScored
Projection 59.3% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 2 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
4. Puka Nacua LAR v BUFScored
Projection 39.6% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 2 games on our boards
Game receipt →
5. Davante Adams LAR v BUFScored
Projection 37.2% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →

NFL · Receptions · top 5

1. Puka Nacua LAR v BUFOutside the range · 17
Projection 7 rec (3–13) · line 7.5
Last 2 games on our boards: 9 · 5 rec — above 7.5 in 1 of 2
Game receipt →
2. Davante Adams LAR v BUFInside the range · 5
Projection 5 rec (2–9) · line 4.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 4 · 7 · 8 rec — above 4.5 in 2 of 3
Game receipt →
3. Khalil Shakir BUF v LARInside the range · 3
Projection 4 rec (1–9) · line 4.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 7 · 1 · 3 rec — above 4.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →
4. Kyren Williams LAR v BUFInside the range · 6
Projection 3 rec (1–7) · line 2.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 10 · 6 · 2 rec — above 2.5 in 2 of 3
Game receipt →
5. Dalton Kincaid BUF v LARInside the range · 1
Projection 3 rec (1–7) · line 4.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 1 · 2 · 7 rec — above 4.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

1. Puka Nacua LAR v BUFOutside the range · 138
Projection 59 yds (18–122) · line 94.5
Last 2 games on our boards: 125 · 74 yds — above 94.5 in 1 of 2
Game receipt →
2. Davante Adams LAR v BUFInside the range · 51
Projection 46 yds (9–106) · line 63.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 32 · 137 · 195 yds — above 63.5 in 2 of 3
Game receipt →
3. Khalil Shakir BUF v LARInside the range · 80
Projection 40 yds (9–89) · line 44.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 82 · 6 · 38 yds — above 44.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →
4. Dalton Kincaid BUF v LARInside the range · 7
Projection 35 yds (4–87) · line 58.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 7 · 38 · 95 yds — above 58.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →
5. Keon Coleman BUF v LARInside the range · 7
Projection 31 yds (2–83) · line 38.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 116 · 37 · 63 yds — above 38.5 in 2 of 3
Game receipt →

Not eligible that day: Rushing yards (estimate only), Passing yards (estimate only).

MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

Bank Builder · lane A
Lost
Leg Official Grade
Tampa Bay Rays to win · Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays 7-3 Lost
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers 4-7 Won
Bank Builder · lane B
Lost
Leg Official Grade
Los Angeles Dodgers to win · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers 4-7 Lost
Over 6.5 · Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays 10 Won
Moonshot · lane A
Lost
Leg Official Grade
Over 7 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers 11 Won
Under 6.5 · Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays 10 Lost
Moonshot · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

Leg	Official	Grade
Tampa Bay Rays to win · Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	7-3	Lost
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	4-7	Won

Leg	Official	Grade
Los Angeles Dodgers to win · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	4-7	Lost
Over 6.5 · Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	10	Won

Leg	Official	Grade
Over 7 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers	11	Won
Under 6.5 · Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays	10	Lost

Suggested Parlays published this day

The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.

Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
High Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Longshot
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB

50.6%

39–38 on 77

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBBrice TurangOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+27.1pp edgeactual 6
MLBMookie BettsOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.9pp edgeactual 2
MLBAngel MartinezOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.5pp edgeactual 2
MLBWilliam ContrerasOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.1pp edgeactual 7
MLBJose RamirezOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.8pp edgeactual 6

Biggest misses

MLBFoster GriffinOver 3.5 Strikeouts+25.1pp edgeactual 3
MLBBrayan RocchioOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+25.0pp edgeactual 0
MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+18.2pp edgeactual 0
MLBWill SmithOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.0pp edgeactual 0
MLBAndy PagesOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+15.2pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

LAD @ MIL

15–2136 dec4 void41.7%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	6.78	1	-0.7%	Low	Loss
Logan Henderson	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	5.87	2	+4.3%	Medium	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.15	0	+4.1%	Medium	Loss
Mookie Betts	Hits	Over 0.5	1.25	1	+7.7%	High	Win
Freddie Freeman	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	0	+3.8%	Medium	Loss
William Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	3	+4.5%	Medium	Win
Christian Yelich	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	2	-2.0%	Low	Win
Will Smith	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	0	+11.9%	High	Loss
Shohei Ohtani	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	0	+4.0%	Medium	Loss
Cooper Pratt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	2	+8.3%	High	Win
Teoscar Hernandez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	0	+14.0%	High	Loss
Brice Turang	Hits	Over 0.5	1.17	2	+16.1%	High	Win
Andy Pages	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	0	+14.6%	High	Loss
Sal Frelick	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	0	-1.8%	Low	Win
Kyle Tucker	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	1	+13.8%	High	Win
Max Muncy	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	+8.2%	High	Loss
Enrique Hernandez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.68	—	+1.7%	Low	Void
Jake Bauers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	1	+9.0%	High	Win
Joey Ortiz	Hits	Over 0.5	1.02	—	+18.2%	High	Void
Garrett Mitchell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	0	+6.2%	High	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.62	0	+18.2%	High	Loss
Mookie Betts	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.57	2	+17.9%	High	Win
Shohei Ohtani	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.71	0	+5.6%	High	Loss
Freddie Freeman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.72	1	+6.9%	High	Loss
Will Smith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.09	0	+17.0%	High	Loss
Teoscar Hernandez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	1	+14.9%	High	Loss
William Contreras	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.12	7	+17.1%	High	Win
Christian Yelich	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.79	4	+12.7%	High	Win
Brice Turang	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.54	6	+27.1%	Low	Win
Cooper Pratt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.71	2	+8.9%	High	Win
Andy Pages	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.33	0	+15.2%	High	Loss
Kyle Tucker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.08	2	+14.9%	High	Win
Jake Bauers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.96	2	+11.9%	High	Win
Sal Frelick	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.06	0	+1.3%	Low	Loss
Max Muncy	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.85	0	+10.1%	High	Loss
Enrique Hernandez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.51	—	+10.9%	High	Void
Joey Ortiz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.97	—	+21.2%	Low	Void
Garrett Mitchell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.50	0	+10.7%	High	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.85	0	+14.6%	High	Loss
Mookie Betts	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.33	1	+22.9%	Low	Loss

CLE @ TB

24–1741 dec2 void58.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Drew Rasmussen	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	5.91	7	-0.9%	Low	Win
Foster Griffin	Strikeouts	Over 3.5	5.23	3	+25.1%	Low	Loss
Yandy Diaz	Hits	Under 1.5	0.93	2	-2.1%	Low	Loss
Steven Kwan	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+3.6%	Medium	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	1	+1.9%	Low	Win
Jonathan Aranda	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	-3.1%	Low	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	1	-1.7%	Low	Win
Chase DeLauter	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	3	+1.8%	Low	Win
Jose Ramirez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	3	+8.5%	High	Win
Liam Hicks	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	0	+1.1%	Low	Loss
Jonny Deluca	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	2	+7.3%	High	Win
Jo Adell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	1	+6.8%	High	Win
Ryan Vilade	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	0	+2.4%	Low	Win
Richie Palacios	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	—	+2.6%	Medium	Void
Taylor Walls	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	+1.0%	Low	Loss
Angel Martinez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.06	1	+14.2%	High	Win
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	2	+3.9%	Medium	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+17.9%	High	Loss
Travis Bazzana	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	1	+5.3%	High	Win
Patrick Bailey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	2	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Yandy Diaz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.06	3	+0.7%	Low	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	3	+8.9%	High	Win
Jonathan Aranda	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.65	0	+1.2%	Low	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.80	1	+4.9%	Medium	Loss
Steven Kwan	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.83	1	+8.9%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	7	+12.3%	High	Win
Jose Ramirez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	6	+16.8%	High	Win
Liam Hicks	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.70	0	+7.9%	High	Loss
Ryan Vilade	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.25	0	-0.8%	Low	Loss
Jo Adell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.92	3	+12.7%	High	Win
Jonny Deluca	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.89	3	+13.8%	High	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.60	0	+12.5%	High	Loss
Richie Palacios	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.84	—	+15.0%	High	Void
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.45	4	+7.8%	High	Win
Angel Martinez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.33	2	+17.5%	High	Win
Travis Bazzana	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.45	1	+7.9%	High	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.30	0	+25.0%	Low	Loss
Patrick Bailey	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	4	+14.6%	High	Win
Yandy Diaz	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.29	3	-0.3%	Low	Win
Junior Caminero	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.70	1	+10.1%	High	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.46	0	+7.0%	High	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.50	1	+9.2%	High	Loss
Steven Kwan	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.33	1	+6.8%	High	Loss

all settled dates

Game by game

MLB · 2–2 game calls

LAD @ MIL

CLE @ TB

NFL · 0–1 game winners

BUF @ LAR

Premier League · 0–1 match results

Coventry City v Newcastle United

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

NFL · Receptions · top 5

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

Product cards settled this day

Bank Builder · lane A

Bank Builder · lane B

Moonshot · lane A

Moonshot · lane B

Suggested Parlays published this day

Low Risk

Medium Risk

High Risk

Longshot

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks