MLB · Run line pick
801 forecasts published · 801 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Model: mlb-prediction-2026.08-v1.
0.234Brier score (n 801), lower is better
0.661log loss, lower is better
59.9% → 62.9%average forecast → how often it happened
0.032calibration error (ECE)
504–297pick record: the pick we published
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 392 | 55.7% | 61.7% |
| 60–70% | 402 | 63.8% | 64.2% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 70.8% | 57.1% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 801. Download all 801 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 ATL @ LAD | ATL @ LAD | 59.3% · ATL +1.5 published 2026-10-04 23:20Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.166 |
| 2026-10-04 SD @ MIL | SD @ MIL | 55.8% · MIL +1.5 published 2026-10-04 19:44Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.195 |
| 2026-10-04 SD @ MIL | SD @ MIL | 59.3% · MIL +1.5 published 2026-10-03 23:58Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.166 |
| 2026-10-03 NYY @ TB | NYY @ TB | 66.5% · NYY +1.5 published 2026-10-03 22:15Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.112 |
| 2026-10-03 ATL @ LAD | ATL @ LAD | 54.7% · ATL +1.5 published 2026-10-03 19:19Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.299 |
| 2026-10-03 CWS @ CLE | CWS @ CLE | 67.2% · CWS +1.5 published 2026-10-03 15:11Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.108 |
| 2026-10-02 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 63.5% · PHI +1.5 published 2026-10-01 23:59Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.403 |
| 2026-10-01 CHC @ SD | CHC @ SD | 63.7% · CHC +1.5 published 2026-10-01 01:21Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.406 |
| 2026-10-01 BOS @ NYY | BOS @ NYY | 65.4% · BOS +1.5 published 2026-09-30 23:07Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.428 |
| 2026-09-30 CWS @ HOU | CWS @ HOU | 56.3% · CWS +1.5 published 2026-09-30 20:54Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.191 |
| 2026-09-30 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 63.5% · ATL +1.5 published 2026-09-30 16:51Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.133 |
| 2026-09-30 CHC @ SD | CHC @ SD | 62.2% · CHC +1.5 published 2026-09-30 01:22Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.387 |
| 2026-09-30 BOS @ NYY | BOS @ NYY | 67.4% · BOS +1.5 published 2026-09-29 23:49Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.454 |
| 2026-09-29 CWS @ HOU | CWS @ HOU | 60.9% · CWS +1.5 published 2026-09-29 20:56Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.153 |
| 2026-09-29 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 60.1% · PHI +1.5 published 2026-09-29 16:55Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.361 |
| 2026-09-27 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 56.6% · TEX +1.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.320 |
| 2026-09-27 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 58.7% · STL +1.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.345 |
| 2026-09-27 AZ @ SD | AZ @ SD | 71.0% · AZ +1.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.504 |
| 2026-09-27 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 56.1% · CLE +1.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.193 |
| 2026-09-27 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 65.3% · ATL +1.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.426 |
| 2026-09-27 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 62.8% · PIT +1.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.138 |
| 2026-09-27 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 67.1% · LAA +1.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.450 |
| 2026-09-27 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 50.7% · CWS +1.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.243 |
| 2026-09-27 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 64.0% · TOR +1.5 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.130 |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 51.5% · ATH +1.5 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.265 |
| 2026-09-27 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 59.9% · PHI +1.5 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.161 |
| 2026-09-27 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 54.4% · LAD -1.5 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line -1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.208 |
| 2026-09-27 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 59.2% · WSH +1.5 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.166 |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 60.1% · ATH +1.5 published 2026-09-27 00:43Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.361 |
| 2026-09-27 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 62.0% · SEA +1.5 published 2026-09-27 00:43Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.144 |
| 2026-09-27 AZ @ SD | AZ @ SD | 56.0% · SD +1.5 published 2026-09-26 23:44Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.194 |
| 2026-09-26 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 68.2% · TB +1.5 published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.101 |
| 2026-09-26 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 50.3% · CWS +1.5 published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.253 |
| 2026-09-26 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 57.3% · STL +1.5 published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.182 |
| 2026-09-26 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 61.9% · CLE +1.5 published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.145 |
| 2026-09-26 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 52.4% · TEX +1.5 published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.227 |
| 2026-09-26 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 59.8% · MIA +1.5 published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.358 |
| 2026-09-26 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 50.9% · LAD -1.5 published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | line -1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.259 |
| 2026-09-26 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 68.1% · CIN +1.5 published 2026-09-26 18:41Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.102 |
| 2026-09-26 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 65.4% · PIT +1.5 published 2026-09-26 15:00Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.120 |
| 2026-09-26 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 56.9% · WSH +1.5 published 2026-09-26 15:00Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.324 |
| 2026-09-26 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 62.9% · LAD -1.5 published 2026-09-26 01:52Z | line -1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.138 |
| 2026-09-26 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 66.8% · SEA +1.5 published 2026-09-26 01:52Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.446 |
| 2026-09-26 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 71.4% · HOU +1.5 published 2026-09-26 00:42Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.082 |
| 2026-09-26 AZ @ SD | AZ @ SD | 71.0% · AZ +1.5 published 2026-09-26 00:42Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.084 |
| 2026-09-26 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 64.2% · TEX +1.5 published 2026-09-26 00:00Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.412 |
| 2026-09-25 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 61.8% · CLE +1.5 published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.146 |
| 2026-09-25 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 55.7% · CWS +1.5 published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.196 |
| 2026-09-25 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 53.6% · STL +1.5 published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.287 |
| 2026-09-25 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 61.3% · MIA +1.5 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.150 |
| 2026-09-25 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 64.7% · TOR +1.5 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.125 |
| 2026-09-25 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 59.4% · WSH +1.5 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.165 |
| 2026-09-25 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 59.6% · DET +1.5 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.163 |
| 2026-09-25 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 67.0% · TB +1.5 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.109 |
| 2026-09-25 BAL @ NYY | BAL @ NYY | 63.7% · BAL +1.5 published 2026-09-25 20:04Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.132 |
| 2026-09-25 CHC @ BOS | CHC @ BOS | 59.4% · BOS +1.5 published 2026-09-25 15:51Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.165 |
| 2026-09-25 SD @ LAD | SD @ LAD | 53.7% · SD -1.5 published 2026-09-25 01:48Z | line -1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.214 |
| 2026-09-25 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 56.6% · ATH +1.5 published 2026-09-25 00:38Z | line 1.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.320 |
| 2026-09-25 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 63.2% · LAA +1.5 published 2026-09-25 00:38Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.135 |
| 2026-09-24 CIN @ ATL | CIN @ ATL | 58.4% · CIN +1.5 published 2026-09-24 22:34Z | line 1.5 | Happened | Brier 0.173 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.