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Settled · graded against final box scores
39–38 on 77 decisive picks · 50.6%2026-10-12
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MLB model board · 2026-10-12

2 MLB games · 76 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 12, 5:27 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
45
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
10
model vs market · context
Small gap
17
4 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Strikeouts0 gap ≥ 5 pp·4 totalHits17 gap ≥ 5 pp·36 totalHits + Runs + RBIs28 gap ≥ 5 pp·36 total
Filters · 76 of 76 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
American Family Field38 leansFinal · graded

LAD@MIL

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

first pitch
5:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
probable · awayYoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD
Logan Henderson
probable · homeLogan Henderson
MIL
Strikeouts
Logan Henderson
Logan Henderson
MILvsLADPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER5.5
Projection5.87
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.1 K across 18 starts
-117 · draftkings
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LADvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER6.5
Projection6.78
Edge−0.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.5 K across 28 starts
-126 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+18.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
+100 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+18.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 119 games
-119 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.57
Edge+17.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 123 games
+101 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+17.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
+130 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.09
Edge+17%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 73 games
+118 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+16.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-149 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.33
Edge+15.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 133 games
-175 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.08
Edge+15%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 153 games
-172 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.99
Edge+14.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 125 games
+126 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+14.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 133 games
-141 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+14%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 125 games
-151 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 153 games
-135 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+12.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
+131 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.96
Edge+12%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
-171 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-168 · draftkings
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.51
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.22 across 36 games
-150 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.5
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
-137 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.85
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 148 games
-167 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-129 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
-189 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-158 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 148 games
-133 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+7.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 123 games
-214 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+6.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 153 games
+109 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-112 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.33 across 135 games
+108 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+4.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-176 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+4.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-224 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 135 games
-161 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 153 games
-181 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangModel anomaly
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+27.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+140 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey OrtizModel anomaly
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+21.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 119 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-145 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-169 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+104 · draftkings
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 36 games
-131 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-168 · draftkings
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded

CLE@TB

Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Foster Griffin
probable · awayFoster Griffin
CLE
Drew Rasmussen
probable · homeDrew Rasmussen
TB
Strikeouts
Foster Griffin
Foster GriffinModel anomaly
CLEvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER3.5
Projection5.23
Edge+25.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 31 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-112 · draftkings
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
TBvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
OVER5.5
Projection5.91
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.8 K across 30 starts
-132 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+17.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-123 · draftkings
Angel Martinez
Angel Martinez
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.33
Edge+17.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 107 games
-155 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+16.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 124 games
+115 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.84
Edge+15%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 118 games
-169 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+14.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-122 · draftkings
Angel Martinez
Angel Martinez
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge+14.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.93 across 107 games
-137 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
+124 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+12.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
+123 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+12.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
-174 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+12.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
+114 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
-114 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
+104 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+8.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 124 games
-189 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
-147 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.7
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
+117 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+7.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
-160 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+7.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-169 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+6.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-164 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-121 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
-104 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-104 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-134 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+3.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-232 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-141 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+25%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-143 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge−3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-219 · draftkings
Ryan Vilade
Ryan Vilade
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+2.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 93 games
+114 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection0.93
Edge−2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
-265 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+1.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-223 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-200 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge−1.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-206 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+1.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
-108 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-184 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-140 · draftkings
Ryan Vilade
Ryan Vilade
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.25
Edge−0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 93 games
+121 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+0.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
-147 · draftkings
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