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Home-run analytics, kept separate on purpose.
HR markets are far more variant than pitcher strikeouts or batter hits. The Power Board rates them on a power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not standard confidence tiers, so a HR call never reads as a confident lean.
high-variance watch · pending
High-variance HR watch
state · pending
Inputs planned
- season slugging + hard-hit + barrel rate (Baseball Savant)
- pitcher HR-allowed rate + handedness splits
- park factor + weather
- lineup position
Looking for today's home-run probabilities? They are on Homer Nukes — a different model from the one planned here, publishing the five most likely home runs each day. This page stays a placeholder until its own inputs land.
Today's home runs: Homer Nukes →Open MLB Model Board →No fabricated picks. No volatile leans until the inputs land.