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Overview MLB· live NFL· week report NBA· Official Forecast record Parlays· pending snapshots

Results · one day

Monday, October 26

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 1–1 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 1 call paused on the site or not shown before the game.

MIL @ TB
Final · MIL 10 – 1 TB
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner MIL (away) Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7 Win
Run line (posted line) TB +1.5 Loss
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 21–20 · 2 void →

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	MIL (away)	Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 7	Win
Run line (posted line)	TB +1.5	Loss

NFL · 0–1 game winners

Full NFL record →

Model Performance:Winner →

DAL @ PHI

Final · DAL 38 – 21 PHI

Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official final score

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	PHI (home)	Loss

Player ranges · 23 of 26 finals landed inside the printed range

A coverage record, not wins and losses: a range is “inside” when the player's final landed within it as printed.

Player	Stat	Range	Final	Inside?
Javonte Williams · DAL	Receptions	0–5	0	Inside
Javonte Williams · DAL	Receiving yards	0–42	0	Inside
Javonte Williams · DAL	Rushing yards	19–95	155	Outside
Dameon Pierce · PHI	Receptions	0–5	1	Inside
Dameon Pierce · PHI	Receiving yards	0–39	1	Inside
Dameon Pierce · PHI	Rushing yards	11–67	47	Inside
CeeDee Lamb · DAL	Receptions	2–12	5	Inside
CeeDee Lamb · DAL	Receiving yards	21–123	74	Inside
Saquon Barkley · PHI	Receptions	0–3	2	Inside
Saquon Barkley · PHI	Receiving yards	0–30	9	Inside
Saquon Barkley · PHI	Rushing yards	5–66	62	Inside
Dallas Goedert · PHI	Receptions	1–8	5	Inside
Dallas Goedert · PHI	Receiving yards	2–66	48	Inside
George Pickens · DAL	Receptions	2–9	4	Inside
George Pickens · DAL	Receiving yards	12–107	57	Inside
Malik Davis · DAL	Rushing yards	0–38	—	Not graded
Tank Bigsby · PHI	Rushing yards	0–39	—	Not graded
Ryan Flournoy · DAL	Receptions	1–7	4	Inside
Ryan Flournoy · DAL	Receiving yards	2–71	70	Inside
Jake Ferguson · DAL	Receptions	0–5	0	Inside
Jake Ferguson · DAL	Receiving yards	0–48	0	Inside
Makai Lemon · PHI	Receptions	1–7	7	Inside
Makai Lemon · PHI	Receiving yards	0–50	67	Outside
Darius Cooper · PHI	Receptions	0–4	1	Inside
Darius Cooper · PHI	Receiving yards	0–43	17	Inside
Tyler Goodson · DAL	Rushing yards	0–27	38	Outside
Zach Ertz · PHI	Receptions	0–4	—	Not graded
Zach Ertz · PHI	Receiving yards	0–36	—	Not graded
Dak Prescott · DAL	Rushing yards	0–25	8	Inside
Dak Prescott · DAL	Passing yards	139–378	212	Inside

NBA · Official Forecast vs final

Each game's official winner side as it was frozen before tip, against the official final. A game with no final yet is pending and a disputed final is held — neither is ever counted as a miss. The model's NBA single picks are graded in the model suggestions record.

Model Performance · season to date: the official side won 44 and lost 27 of 71 decided games · 10 pending.

Counts, not an accuracy claim: the preregistered minimum before any judgment of the winner side is 300 graded games, and this is 71. The Elo-derived estimate shown on the boards is not a validated probability, and no calibration is claimed.

Mon, Oct 26 · 9 games · side won 6, lost 3

Official winner side vs final, Mon, Oct 26
Game	Official side	Final	Result
WSH @ CHAtip 7:00 PM ET	CHAfrozen 11:26 AM ET	WSH 103 – 110 CHA	Side won
MIN @ CLEtip 7:00 PM ET	CLEfrozen 11:26 AM ET	MIN 125 – 127 CLE	Side won
CHI @ BOStip 7:30 PM ET	BOSfrozen 12:05 PM ET	CHI 99 – 134 BOS	Side won
DAL @ MIAtip 7:30 PM ET	MIAfrozen 12:05 PM ET	DAL 113 – 109 MIA	Side lost
IND @ MILtip 8:00 PM ET	MILfrozen 12:05 PM ET	IND 102 – 110 MIL	Side won
PHX @ OKCtip 8:00 PM ET	OKCfrozen 12:05 PM ET	PHX 114 – 125 OKC	Side won
ATL @ HOUtip 8:30 PM ET	HOUfrozen 12:05 PM ET	ATL 110 – 120 HOU	Side won
MEM @ UTAHtip 9:00 PM ET	UTAHfrozen 12:05 PM ET	MEM 110 – 105 UTAH	Side lost
GS @ DENtip 10:00 PM ET	DENfrozen 12:05 PM ET	GS 134 – 114 DEN	Side lost

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

Published Sun, Oct 25, 9:45 PM ET · first kickoff Mon, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

1. Javonte Williams DAL v PHIScored
Projection 75.9% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 3 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
2. Dameon Pierce PHI v DALScored
Projection 56.4% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 1 game on our boards
Game receipt →
3. CeeDee Lamb DAL v PHIScored
Projection 36.6% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
4. Dallas Goedert PHI v DALDid not score
Projection 29.2% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
5. George Pickens DAL v PHIScored
Projection 26% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →

NFL · Receptions · top 5

1. CeeDee Lamb DAL v PHIInside the range · 5
Projection 6 rec (2–12) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 9 · 2 · 17 rec
Game receipt →
2. George Pickens DAL v PHIInside the range · 4
Projection 5 rec (2–9) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 6 · 9 · 2 rec
Game receipt →
3. Dallas Goedert PHI v DALInside the range · 5
Projection 4 rec (1–8) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 6 · 6 · 1 rec
Game receipt →
4. Ryan Flournoy DAL v PHIInside the range · 4
Projection 3 rec (1–7) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 7 · 3 · 4 rec
Game receipt →
5. Makai Lemon PHI v DALInside the range · 7
Projection 3 rec (1–7) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 3 · 5 · 3 rec
Game receipt →

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

1. CeeDee Lamb DAL v PHIInside the range · 74
Projection 61 yds (20–120) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 70 · 9 · 189 yds
Game receipt →
2. George Pickens DAL v PHIInside the range · 57
Projection 49 yds (12–107) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 73 · 130 · 75 yds
Game receipt →
3. Ryan Flournoy DAL v PHIInside the range · 70
Projection 27 yds (3–68) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 40 · 90 · 37 yds
Game receipt →
4. Dallas Goedert PHI v DALInside the range · 48
Projection 25 yds (2–66) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 61 · 38 · 4 yds
Game receipt →
5. Makai Lemon PHI v DALOutside the range · 67
Projection 18 yds (0–51) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 19 · 43 · 27 yds
Game receipt →

Not eligible that day: Rushing yards (estimate only), Passing yards (estimate only).

MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

Bank Builder · lane A
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Bank Builder · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane A
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

Suggested Parlays published this day

The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.

Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
High Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Longshot
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB

51.2%

21–20 on 41

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBBrice TurangOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+23.9pp edgeactual 6
MLBBrice TurangOver 0.5 Hits+14.9pp edgeactual 3
MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+12.6pp edgeactual 7
MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Total Bases+11.0pp edgeactual 5
MLBChristian YelichOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+10.5pp edgeactual 4

Biggest misses

MLBRobert GasserOver 3.5 Strikeouts+35.3pp edgeactual 3
MLBTaylor WallsOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.1pp edgeactual 0
MLBChandler SimpsonOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+11.2pp edgeactual 0
MLBJonny DelucaOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+10.9pp edgeactual 0
MLBJunior CamineroOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+8.9pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

MIL @ TB

21–2041 dec2 void51.2%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Freddy Peralta	Strikeouts	Under 4.5	4.76	4	-2.6%	Low	Win
Robert Gasser	Strikeouts	Over 3.5	5.14	3	+35.3%	Low	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	0	+5.9%	High	Loss
Yandy Diaz	Hits	Under 0.5	0.93	2	-0.2%	Low	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.15	4	+1.2%	Low	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	0	+0.8%	Low	Loss
William Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	3	+1.8%	Low	Win
Jonny Deluca	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	0	+4.8%	Medium	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	+0.4%	Low	Loss
Cooper Pratt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	1	+6.0%	High	Win
Christian Yelich	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	2	-2.1%	Low	Win
Ben Williamson	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	0	+2.7%	Medium	Win
Sal Frelick	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	1	+1.5%	Low	Loss
Brice Turang	Hits	Over 0.5	1.17	3	+14.9%	High	Win
Garrett Mitchell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	1	-1.9%	Low	Win
Liam Hicks	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	—	+5.4%	High	Void
Jake Bauers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	0	+6.0%	High	Loss
David Hamilton	Hits	Over 0.5	0.71	1	+3.6%	Medium	Win
Ryan Vilade	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	0	-2.6%	Low	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	+7.2%	High	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.62	7	+12.6%	High	Win
Yandy Diaz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.06	3	+4.8%	Medium	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	0	+8.9%	High	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.04	0	+11.2%	High	Loss
William Contreras	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.12	5	+10.0%	High	Win
Jonathan Aranda	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.65	0	+4.6%	Medium	Loss
Jonny Deluca	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.89	0	+10.9%	High	Loss
Christian Yelich	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.79	4	+10.5%	High	Win
Cooper Pratt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.71	4	+9.1%	High	Win
Jake Bauers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.96	1	+13.4%	High	Loss
Brice Turang	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.54	6	+23.9%	Low	Win
Ben Williamson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.10	0	-2.6%	Low	Loss
Sal Frelick	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.06	3	-2.4%	Low	Loss
Garrett Mitchell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.50	3	+6.9%	High	Win
Liam Hicks	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.70	—	+10.8%	High	Void
Ryan Vilade	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.25	0	+4.5%	Medium	Loss
David Hamilton	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.24	3	+5.3%	High	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.60	0	+17.1%	High	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.85	5	+11.0%	High	Win
Junior Caminero	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.70	0	+8.9%	High	Loss
Yandy Diaz	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.29	3	+0.5%	Low	Win
William Contreras	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.50	3	+10.2%	High	Win
Chandler Simpson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.44	0	+8.8%	High	Loss

all settled dates

Game by game

MLB · 1–1 game calls

MIL @ TB

NFL · 0–1 game winners

DAL @ PHI

NBA · Official Forecast vs final

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

NFL · Receptions · top 5

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

Product cards settled this day

Bank Builder · lane A

Bank Builder · lane B

Moonshot · lane A

Moonshot · lane B

Suggested Parlays published this day

Low Risk

Medium Risk

High Risk

Longshot

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks