NFL · Game winner
111 forecasts published · 104 measured · 5 not final · 2 void or not measurable. Models: nfl-preseason-public-beta-v1, nfl-regular-season-public-v1.
0.236Brier score (n 104), lower is better
0.664log loss, lower is better
51.9% → 52.9%average forecast → how often it happened
0.049calibration error (ECE)
61–43pick record: the team we gave the better win chance
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30% | 3 | 22.0% | 33.3% |
| 30–40% | 8 | 37.1% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 51 | 46.5% | 47.1% |
| 50–60% | 16 | 54.1% | 62.5% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.8% | 52.9% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 75.4% | 85.7% |
| 80–90% | 2 | 80.8% | 100.0% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 111. Download all 111 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 DET @ CAR | DET @ CAR | 38.2% published 2026-10-04 23:51Z | book 34.6% | Happened | Brier 0.382 |
| 2026-10-04 KC @ LV | KC @ LV | 38.8% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | book 33.5% | Did not happen | Brier 0.150 |
| 2026-10-04 LAC @ SEA | LAC @ SEA | 80.9% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | book 74.1% | Happened | Brier 0.036 |
| 2026-10-04 DEN @ SF | DEN @ SF | 54.7% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | book 59.4% | Happened | Brier 0.205 |
| 2026-10-04 MIA @ MIN | MIA @ MIN | 79.2% published 2026-10-04 19:24Z | book 81.6% | Happened | Brier 0.043 |
| 2026-10-04 NYJ @ CHI | NYJ @ CHI | 76.8% published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | book 63.2% | Happened | Brier 0.054 |
| 2026-10-04 LAR @ PHI | LAR @ PHI | 48.9% published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | book 37.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.239 |
| 2026-10-04 TEN @ BAL | TEN @ BAL | 80.7% published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | book 85.0% | Happened | Brier 0.037 |
| 2026-10-04 DAL @ HOU | DAL @ HOU | 64.3% published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | book 58.1% | Did not happen | Brier 0.414 |
| 2026-10-04 GB @ TB | GB @ TB | 47.7% published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | book 40.1% | Did not happen | Brier 0.228 |
| 2026-10-04 JAX @ CIN | JAX @ CIN | 46.6% published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | book 56.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.217 |
| 2026-10-04 ARI @ NYG | ARI @ NYG | 57.4% published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | book 44.2% | Happened | Brier 0.181 |
| 2026-10-04 NE @ BUF | NE @ BUF | 63.4% published 2026-10-04 15:02Z | book 73.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.402 |
| 2026-10-04 IND @ WSH | IND @ WSH | 48.3% published 2026-10-03 23:32Z | book 35.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.233 |
| 2026-10-02 PIT @ CLE | PIT @ CLE | 42.5% published 2026-10-01 22:30Z | book 42.6% | Happened | Brier 0.330 |
| 2026-09-29 PHI @ CHI | PHI @ CHI | 46.8% published 2026-09-28 22:24Z | book 36.1% | Happened | Brier 0.283 |
| 2026-09-28 LAR @ DEN | LAR @ DEN | 53.8% published 2026-09-28 00:17Z | book 48.9% | Happened | Brier 0.213 |
| 2026-09-27 LV @ NO | LV @ NO | 59.8% published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | book 62.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.358 |
| 2026-09-27 BAL @ DAL | BAL @ DAL | 38.3% published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | book 38.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.147 |
| 2026-09-27 ARI @ SF | ARI @ SF | 76.3% published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | book 76.1% | Happened | Brier 0.056 |
| 2026-09-27 MIN @ TB | MIN @ TB | 32.5% published 2026-09-27 18:57Z | book 48.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.106 |
| 2026-09-27 LAC @ BUF | LAC @ BUF | 77.0% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 74.1% | Happened | Brier 0.053 |
| 2026-09-27 TEN @ NYG | TEN @ NYG | 67.3% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 55.6% | Happened | Brier 0.107 |
| 2026-09-27 NE @ JAX | NE @ JAX | 50.5% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 58.3% | Happened | Brier 0.245 |
| 2026-09-27 KC @ MIA | KC @ MIA | 36.0% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 18.2% | Did not happen | Brier 0.129 |
| 2026-09-27 CAR @ CLE | CAR @ CLE | 50.3% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 45.3% | Happened | Brier 0.247 |
| 2026-09-27 NYJ @ DET | NYJ @ DET | 73.5% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 72.4% | Happened | Brier 0.070 |
| 2026-09-27 CIN @ PIT | CIN @ PIT | 49.6% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 38.1% | Happened | Brier 0.254 |
| 2026-09-27 SEA @ WSH | SEA @ WSH | 20.1% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 22.9% | Happened | Brier 0.638 |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ IND | HOU @ IND | 38.1% published 2026-09-27 14:42Z | book 46.8% | Happened | Brier 0.384 |
| 2026-09-25 ATL @ GB | ATL @ GB | 67.0% published 2026-09-24 23:46Z | book 68.2% | Did not happen | Brier 0.448 |
| 2026-09-22 NYG @ LAR | NYG @ LAR | 69.6% published 2026-09-21 23:50Z | book 71.7% | Happened | Brier 0.092 |
| 2026-09-21 IND @ KC | IND @ KC | 65.3% published 2026-09-20 23:00Z | book 70.6% | Happened | Brier 0.121 |
| 2026-09-20 MIA @ SF | MIA @ SF | 74.4% published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | book 87.8% | Happened | Brier 0.066 |
| 2026-09-20 WSH @ DAL | WSH @ DAL | 51.0% published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | book 65.1% | Happened | Brier 0.240 |
| 2026-09-20 SEA @ ARI | SEA @ ARI | 22.0% published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | book 34.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.049 |
| 2026-09-20 LV @ LAC | LV @ LAC | 66.9% published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | book 72.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.447 |
| 2026-09-20 JAX @ DEN | JAX @ DEN | 51.3% published 2026-09-20 18:09Z | book 57.2% | Happened | Brier 0.237 |
| 2026-09-20 PIT @ NE | PIT @ NE | 61.9% published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | book 67.8% | Happened | Brier 0.145 |
| 2026-09-20 CLE @ TB | CLE @ TB | 60.8% published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | book 77.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.370 |
| 2026-09-20 PHI @ TEN | PHI @ TEN | 23.8% published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | book 25.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.057 |
| 2026-09-20 MIN @ CHI | MIN @ CHI | 50.8% published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | book 65.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.258 |
| 2026-09-20 GB @ NYJ | GB @ NYJ | 38.3% published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | book 38.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.146 |
| 2026-09-20 NO @ BAL | NO @ BAL | 70.7% published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | book 77.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.499 |
| 2026-09-20 CAR @ ATL | CAR @ ATL | 60.2% published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | book 42.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.362 |
| 2026-09-20 CIN @ HOU | CIN @ HOU | 64.8% published 2026-09-20 13:34Z | book 57.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.420 |
| 2026-09-18 DET @ BUF | DET @ BUF | 62.4% published 2026-09-17 23:22Z | book 68.4% | Happened | Brier 0.141 |
| 2026-09-15 DEN @ KC | DEN @ KC | 37.0% published 2026-09-14 23:42Z | book 54.3% | Happened | Brier 0.397 |
| 2026-09-14 DAL @ NYG | DAL @ NYG | 47.0% published 2026-09-13 22:54Z | book 39.5% | Happened | Brier 0.281 |
| 2026-09-13 GB @ MIN | GB @ MIN | 57.3% published 2026-09-13 18:02Z | book 54.5% | Happened | Brier 0.182 |
| 2026-09-13 WSH @ PHI | WSH @ PHI | 65.7% published 2026-09-13 18:02Z | book 70.0% | Happened | Brier 0.118 |
| 2026-09-13 ARI @ LAC | ARI @ LAC | 68.2% published 2026-09-13 18:02Z | book 80.0% | Did not happen | Brier 0.465 |
| 2026-09-13 MIA @ LV | MIA @ LV | 46.5% published 2026-09-13 18:02Z | book 59.7% | Happened | Brier 0.287 |
| 2026-09-13 TB @ CIN | TB @ CIN | 53.3% published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | book 64.6% | Happened | Brier 0.218 |
| 2026-09-13 NO @ DET | NO @ DET | 67.0% published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | book 73.9% | Happened | Brier 0.109 |
| 2026-09-13 BAL @ IND | BAL @ IND | 50.1% published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | book 39.6% | Did not happen | Brier 0.251 |
| 2026-09-13 BUF @ HOU | BUF @ HOU | 54.0% published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | book 47.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.292 |
| 2026-09-13 CLE @ JAX | CLE @ JAX | 65.4% published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | book 78.4% | Happened | Brier 0.120 |
| 2026-09-13 ATL @ PIT | ATL @ PIT | 59.2% published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | book 72.5% | Happened | Brier 0.167 |
| 2026-09-13 NYJ @ TEN | NYJ @ TEN | 53.6% published 2026-09-13 13:48Z | book 51.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.287 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.