MLB · Moneyline pick
801 forecasts published · 801 measured · 0 not final · 0 void or not measurable. Model: mlb-prediction-2026.08-v1.
0.253Brier score (n 801), lower is better
0.700log loss, lower is better
57.2% → 51.3%average forecast → how often it happened
0.059calibration error (ECE)
411–390pick record: the pick we published
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 577 | 54.3% | 49.7% |
| 60–70% | 200 | 63.7% | 53.5% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 72.5% | 70.8% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 801. Download all 801 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 ATL @ LAD | ATL @ LAD | 59.5% · LAD (home) published 2026-10-04 23:20Z | book 58.5% | Did not happen | Brier 0.354 |
| 2026-10-04 SD @ MIL | SD @ MIL | 56.4% · SD (away) published 2026-10-04 19:44Z | book 43.7% | Did not happen | Brier 0.318 |
| 2026-10-04 SD @ MIL | SD @ MIL | 52.4% · SD (away) published 2026-10-03 23:58Z | book 35.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.275 |
| 2026-10-03 NYY @ TB | NYY @ TB | 52.2% · TB (home) published 2026-10-03 22:15Z | book 55.2% | Happened | Brier 0.228 |
| 2026-10-03 ATL @ LAD | ATL @ LAD | 64.4% · LAD (home) published 2026-10-03 19:19Z | book 65.0% | Happened | Brier 0.127 |
| 2026-10-03 CWS @ CLE | CWS @ CLE | 51.0% · CLE (home) published 2026-10-03 15:11Z | book 58.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.260 |
| 2026-10-02 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 55.7% · ATL (home) published 2026-10-01 23:59Z | book 48.3% | Happened | Brier 0.196 |
| 2026-10-01 CHC @ SD | CHC @ SD | 52.8% · SD (home) published 2026-10-01 01:21Z | book 56.6% | Happened | Brier 0.223 |
| 2026-10-01 BOS @ NYY | BOS @ NYY | 54.6% · NYY (home) published 2026-09-30 23:07Z | book 56.1% | Happened | Brier 0.206 |
| 2026-09-30 CWS @ HOU | CWS @ HOU | 61.9% · HOU (home) published 2026-09-30 20:54Z | book 56.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.383 |
| 2026-09-30 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 51.2% · PHI (away) published 2026-09-30 16:51Z | book 50.9% | Happened | Brier 0.238 |
| 2026-09-30 CHC @ SD | CHC @ SD | 55.2% · SD (home) published 2026-09-30 01:22Z | book 54.0% | Happened | Brier 0.201 |
| 2026-09-30 BOS @ NYY | BOS @ NYY | 51.4% · NYY (home) published 2026-09-29 23:49Z | book 56.6% | Happened | Brier 0.236 |
| 2026-09-29 CWS @ HOU | CWS @ HOU | 57.6% · HOU (home) published 2026-09-29 20:56Z | book 53.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.332 |
| 2026-09-29 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 59.6% · ATL (home) published 2026-09-29 16:55Z | book 64.3% | Happened | Brier 0.163 |
| 2026-09-27 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 63.7% · COL (away) published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | book 35.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.406 |
| 2026-09-27 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 64.6% · KC (home) published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | book 42.5% | Happened | Brier 0.125 |
| 2026-09-27 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 55.8% · MIA (home) published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | book 50.0% | Happened | Brier 0.195 |
| 2026-09-27 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 64.0% · MIN (home) published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | book 46.7% | Happened | Brier 0.130 |
| 2026-09-27 AZ @ SD | AZ @ SD | 50.4% · SD (home) published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | book 45.1% | Happened | Brier 0.246 |
| 2026-09-27 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 62.9% · MIL (home) published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | book 68.2% | Happened | Brier 0.138 |
| 2026-09-27 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 55.5% · DET (home) published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | book 45.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.308 |
| 2026-09-27 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 52.6% · SEA (home) published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | book 61.9% | Happened | Brier 0.225 |
| 2026-09-27 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 51.8% · CIN (away) published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | book 38.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.268 |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 60.7% · HOU (away) published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | book 61.0% | Happened | Brier 0.154 |
| 2026-09-27 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 69.5% · LAD (away) published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | book 69.1% | Happened | Brier 0.093 |
| 2026-09-27 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 54.9% · TB (away) published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | book 42.7% | Did not happen | Brier 0.301 |
| 2026-09-27 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 55.2% · NYM (away) published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | book 50.0% | Did not happen | Brier 0.305 |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 53.2% · HOU (away) published 2026-09-27 00:43Z | book 56.3% | Happened | Brier 0.219 |
| 2026-09-27 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 53.5% · LAA (away) published 2026-09-27 00:43Z | book 36.7% | Did not happen | Brier 0.286 |
| 2026-09-27 AZ @ SD | AZ @ SD | 55.7% · AZ (away) published 2026-09-26 23:44Z | book 46.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.310 |
| 2026-09-26 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 51.0% · PHI (home) published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | book 49.0% | Did not happen | Brier 0.260 |
| 2026-09-26 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 56.8% · KC (home) published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | book 45.8% | Did not happen | Brier 0.323 |
| 2026-09-26 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 62.8% · MIL (home) published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | book 62.8% | Happened | Brier 0.138 |
| 2026-09-26 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 64.2% · COL (away) published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | book 32.7% | Happened | Brier 0.128 |
| 2026-09-26 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 68.1% · MIN (home) published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | book 45.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.464 |
| 2026-09-26 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 53.8% · ATL (away) published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | book 54.2% | Happened | Brier 0.213 |
| 2026-09-26 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 66.9% · LAD (away) published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | book 73.7% | Happened | Brier 0.110 |
| 2026-09-26 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 51.9% · TOR (home) published 2026-09-26 18:41Z | book 59.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.269 |
| 2026-09-26 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 51.3% · DET (home) published 2026-09-26 15:00Z | book 51.1% | Happened | Brier 0.237 |
| 2026-09-26 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 56.0% · NYM (away) published 2026-09-26 15:00Z | book 54.9% | Happened | Brier 0.194 |
| 2026-09-26 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 76.3% · LAD (away) published 2026-09-26 01:52Z | book 76.0% | Happened | Brier 0.056 |
| 2026-09-26 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 50.3% · LAA (away) published 2026-09-26 01:52Z | book 45.1% | Happened | Brier 0.247 |
| 2026-09-26 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 50.1% · ATH (home) published 2026-09-26 00:42Z | — | Happened | Brier 0.249 |
| 2026-09-26 AZ @ SD | AZ @ SD | 50.4% · SD (home) published 2026-09-26 00:42Z | — | Did not happen | Brier 0.254 |
| 2026-09-26 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 55.5% · MIN (home) published 2026-09-26 00:00Z | book 49.6% | Happened | Brier 0.198 |
| 2026-09-25 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 57.1% · KC (home) published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | book 43.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.326 |
| 2026-09-25 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 59.3% · COL (away) published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | book 33.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.352 |
| 2026-09-25 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 66.1% · MIL (home) published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | book 61.9% | Happened | Brier 0.115 |
| 2026-09-25 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 52.4% · ATL (away) published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | book 53.1% | Did not happen | Brier 0.275 |
| 2026-09-25 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 51.1% · CIN (away) published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | book 44.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.261 |
| 2026-09-25 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 53.9% · NYM (away) published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | book 55.1% | Did not happen | Brier 0.291 |
| 2026-09-25 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 52.7% · PIT (away) published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | book 49.9% | Did not happen | Brier 0.278 |
| 2026-09-25 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 52.0% · PHI (home) published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | book 60.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.270 |
| 2026-09-25 BAL @ NYY | BAL @ NYY | 56.0% · NYY (home) published 2026-09-25 20:04Z | book 56.3% | Did not happen | Brier 0.314 |
| 2026-09-25 CHC @ BOS | CHC @ BOS | 53.9% · CHC (away) published 2026-09-25 15:51Z | book 52.1% | Did not happen | Brier 0.291 |
| 2026-09-25 SD @ LAD | SD @ LAD | 64.7% · SD (away) published 2026-09-25 01:48Z | book 39.2% | Happened | Brier 0.125 |
| 2026-09-25 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 56.0% · SEA (home) published 2026-09-25 00:38Z | book 65.4% | Did not happen | Brier 0.314 |
| 2026-09-25 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 56.9% · HOU (away) published 2026-09-25 00:38Z | book 59.8% | Happened | Brier 0.186 |
| 2026-09-24 CIN @ ATL | CIN @ ATL | 62.2% · ATL (home) published 2026-09-24 22:34Z | book 66.2% | Did not happen | Brier 0.387 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.