DAL @ PHI
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, Mon, Oct 26. This game has been played — what follows is the forecast as it was frozen BEFORE kickoff, not a current read.
Regular season · week 7 · Monday, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · final
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Archived pregame read · published before kickoff. Everything below is the forecast revision the graded record names, read from its committed file and not regenerated. The final was DAL 38 – 21 PHI, from the Week 7 record.
What happened · official box score
Final: DAL 38 – 21 PHI
The played game's official lines, recorded Oct 27, 2026, the same lines the forecasts on this page were graded against. Under each actual is the Official Forecast published before kickoff, with its 80% range.
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| PHI | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
Dallas Cowboys · 38
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 212Forecast 239 (139–378) · in range | 8Forecast 3 (0–25) · in range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 9.6% |
| Javonte Williams | 0 | 155Forecast 50 (19–95) · outside range | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 12 (0–42) · in range | YesForecast 75.9% |
| CeeDee Lamb | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 6 (2–12) · in range | 74Forecast 62 (21–123) · in range | YesForecast 36.6% |
| Ryan Flournoy | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 70Forecast 27 (2–71) · in range | NoForecast 20.4% |
| George Pickens | 0 | 0 | 4Forecast 5 (2–9) · in range | 57Forecast 49 (12–107) · in range | YesForecast 26.0% |
| Tyler Goodson | 0 | 38Forecast 6 (0–27) · outside range | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 13.7% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | No |
| Hunter Luepke | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Jake Ferguson | 0 | 0 | 0Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 0Forecast 16 (0–48) · in range | NoForecast 18.9% |
| Malik DavisNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 10 (0–38) | — | — | —Forecast 24.8% |
| Player lines added up | 212 | 204 | 15 | 212 |
27 other Dallas Cowboys players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Philadelphia Eagles · 21
| Player | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner McKee | 211 | 1 | 0 | 0 | NoForecast 5.9% |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 62Forecast 27 (5–66) · in range | 2Forecast 1 (0–3) · in range | 9Forecast 4 (0–30) · in range | YesForecast 30.4% |
| Makai Lemon | 0 | 0 | 7Forecast 3 (1–7) · in range | 67Forecast 18 (0–50) · outside range | YesForecast 18.1% |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 0 | 5Forecast 4 (1–8) · in range | 48Forecast 25 (2–66) · in range | NoForecast 29.2% |
| Dameon Pierce | 0 | 47Forecast 33 (11–67) · in range | 1Forecast 2 (0–5) · in range | 1Forecast 10 (0–39) · in range | YesForecast 56.4% |
| Elijah Mitchell | 0 | 11 | 3 | 23 | No |
| Marquise Brown | 0 | 0 | 2 | 30 | NoForecast 5.0% |
| Darius Cooper | 0 | 0 | 1Forecast 1 (0–4) · in range | 17Forecast 8 (0–43) · in range | NoForecast 17.4% |
| Elijah Moore | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | No |
| Tank BigsbyNo line in the official box score | — | —Forecast 12 (0–39) | — | — | —Forecast 22.7% |
| Zach ErtzNo line in the official box score | — | — | —Forecast 2 (0–4) | —Forecast 7 (0–36) | —Forecast 12.8% |
| Player lines added up | 211 | 121 | 23 | 211 |
24 other Philadelphia Eagles players appear in the official box score with no passing, rushing or receiving line.
Shown: the passing, rushing and receiving lines and touchdowns GameTimePicks records; defensive and kicking statistics are not recorded here. “Player lines added up” sums the players' lines, so team passing yards are before sack yardage. TD means a rushing, receiving, return or recovery touchdown; a thrown one does not count. “—” means the player has no line in the official box score. Every graded forecast for Week 7 is on the NFL week report.
Regular season · week 7 · Monday, Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys36.2% to winPregame projection
21–28
the middle of the outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Philadelphia Eagles61.2% to winPhiladelphia Eagles were the projected winner, 61.2% to win.
About 3% chance of a tie after regulation is not assigned to either team.
Expected margin
PHI +6
8 in 10 outcomes between -11 and +22
Expected total
49
8 in 10 outcomes between 32 and 66
Official Forecast · frozen before kickoff · graded after
The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result once the game is final, and results are published as games are graded. Player results grade the official player board's own pre-kickoff projections, each under the model and version that made it — the same projections the game pages and Weekly leaders show. The supporting simulations some game pages show are not graded in these results, so none of these results describe them.
Simulation story
5 chapters · the forecast as it stood before the start› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameDAL 21 — 28 PHIwin chance DAL 36.2% · PHI 61.2%total 49 (32–66)margin +6
DAL
Likely TD scorers
Javonte Williams 75.9%
CeeDee Lamb 36.6%
George Pickens 26.0%
Passing
Dak Prescott 239 pass yds (139–378)
Rushing leaders
Javonte Williams 50 rush yds (19–95)
Malik Davis 10 rush yds (0–38)
Receiving leaders
CeeDee Lamb 6 rec · 62 yds
George Pickens 5 rec · 49 yds
Ryan Flournoy 3 rec · 27 yds
PHI
Likely TD scorers
Dameon Pierce 56.4%
Saquon Barkley 30.4%
Dallas Goedert 29.2%
Rushing leaders
Dameon Pierce 33 rush yds (11–67)
Saquon Barkley 27 rush yds (5–66)
Receiving leaders
Dallas Goedert 4 rec · 25 yds
Makai Lemon 3 rec · 18 yds
Dameon Pierce 2 rec · 10 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
- Emari Demercado DAL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Tanner McKee PHI — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Jalen Hurts PHI — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- DeVonta Smith PHI — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Dontayvion Wicks PHI — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Will Shipley PHI — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Jaydon Blue PHI — Role not yet observed: no game for PHI yet this season — role at PHI not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for DAL, 0.2 rec · 0.8 rec yds · 25.7 rush yds per game.
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
No current sportsbook capture covers this game.
Player projections · 17 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by median receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 6 (2–12) | 62 (21–123) | 36.6% | |
| George Pickens | DAL | 5 (2–9) | 49 (12–107) | 26.0% | |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | 4 (1–8) | 25 (2–66) | 29.2% | |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL | 3 (1–7) | 27 (2–71) | 20.4% | |
| Makai Lemon | PHI | 3 (1–7) | 18 (0–50) | 18.1% | |
| Javonte Williams | DAL | 2 (0–5) | 12 (0–42) | 75.9% | |
| Dameon Pierce | PHI | 2 (0–5) | 10 (0–39) | 56.4% | |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL | 2 (0–5) | 16 (0–48) | 18.9% | |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | 2 (0–4) | 7 (0–36) | 12.8% | |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | 1 (0–3) | 4 (0–30) | 30.4% | |
| Darius Cooper | PHI | 1 (0–4) | 8 (0–43) | 17.4% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)
- Emari Demercado DAL — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Tanner McKee PHI — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Jalen Hurts PHI — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- DeVonta Smith PHI — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Dontayvion Wicks PHI — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Will Shipley PHI — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Jaydon Blue PHI — Role not yet observed: no game for PHI yet this season — role at PHI not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for DAL, 0.2 rec · 0.8 rec yds · 25.7 rush yds per game.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: research only, not published as a forecast
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 17 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 75.9% Javonte Williams · DAL
- 56.4% Dameon Pierce · PHI
- 36.6% CeeDee Lamb · DAL
- 30.4% Saquon Barkley · PHI
- 29.2% Dallas Goedert · PHI
- 26.0% George Pickens · DAL
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · separate from this Official Forecast
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- The model's chance for each side to win, from its team-strength rating — not a count of simulated wins. The simulated games show their own win share, and the difference, in Simulated game outcomes.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Official Forecast
- The authorized GameTimePicks output for a game or player, frozen before the start and never edited afterwards. Each one is graded against the official result; its record on games played after it was frozen is still accumulating.
Technical detailsModel version, input fingerprint, timestamps and the per-family evaluation basis.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 8c9253b4e86b496e
- generated
- kickoff
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (3 published)
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (27,134 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (947 graded player-games).
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is holding every bar (1248 graded player-games).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
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