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NFL · DAL @ PHI · Simulation

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · 10,000 coherent game paths

Game Simulation · Simulation V2 · how to read this page

Each run is one internally consistent possible game: drives, plays, player stats and points all add up inside that run. The numbers below summarise all 10,000 simulated games.

This is a Game Simulation from a separate engine, not the Official Forecast. It is not independent of it: each team's scoring level is set so the simulated average total and margin match the Game Time Forecast's expected total and margin. It has not been shown to be more accurate than the Game Time Forecast: on held-out past games its win chances scored slightly worse. It is shown for exploration, takes no betting-market input, and feeds no pick or product. It was frozen before kickoff and is never re-run with live information.

Game outcome · Simulation V2

35.5%DAL win in the simulated games

64.2%PHI win in the simulated games

0.3%tie after overtime

3.3%game goes to overtime

DAL 21 – 27 PHImedian score · averages 21.98 – 27.02

48median total · 80% of games 32–67

PHI by 5median margin · 80% range: DAL by 12 to PHI by 23

45.0%one-score game (decided by 8 or fewer)

8.8% · 6.7%decided by exactly 3 · by exactly 7

Score distribution

Final margin: PHI points minus DAL points (below 0 means DAL won). Bars group 3 points; the solid bar holds the median (5). Range shown -51 to 54.

Final total points. Bars group 4 points; the solid bar holds the median (48). Range shown 8 to 100.

Each team's score

Team	Low (10th)	Median	High (90th)	Average
DAL	10	21	34	21.98
PHI	14	27	40	27.02

Quarters and halves

From the same simulated games, so the quarters add up to each game's final. Overtime is shown above.

Period	DAL median (80%)	PHI median (80%)	Both teams (80%)	DAL wins it	PHI wins it	Level
Q1	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–19)	35.5%	47.5%	17.1%
Q2	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	14 (6–24)	35.5%	52.2%	12.2%
Q3	3 (0–10)	7 (0–14)	10 (3–20)	34.7%	47.9%	17.4%
Q4	7 (0–14)	7 (0–14)	13 (3–22)	35.8%	49.0%	15.3%
1st half	10 (3–20)	14 (6–24)	24 (13–37)	36.4%	57.4%	6.2%
2nd half	10 (3–20)	13 (3–21)	23 (13–36)	36.9%	55.8%	7.3%

Team box · median (80% range)

Stat	DAL	PHI
Drives	11 (9–13)	11 (9–13)
Plays	62 (50–75)	63 (51–76)
Pass attempts	34 (25–44)	33 (24–43)
Completions	23 (16–31)	22 (16–29)
Passing yards	217 (130–315)	229 (143–327)
Passing TDs	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)
Interceptions	1 (0–2)	0 (0–2)
Sacks taken	2 (0–4)	2 (0–4)
Rush attempts	24 (17–33)	27 (19–36)
Rushing yards	113 (54–192)	129 (66–214)
Rushing TDs	1 (0–2)	1 (0–2)
Field goals made	1 (0–3)	2 (0–3)

Touchdowns per team

Touchdowns	0	1	2	3	4	5+
DAL	6.1%	21.2%	29.3%	24.6%	12.9%	5.8%
PHI	2.4%	12.0%	23.8%	28.1%	20.1%	13.5%

Players · median (80% range)

Player lines are slices of the same simulated games: in every run, receivers' catches and yards add up to their passer's, and carries add up to the team's. Volume a named player does not get goes to "Other", so nothing is forced onto a starter. Players ruled out before the simulation get no snaps.

DAL passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Dak Prescott QB	30 (22–40)	20 (14–28)	193 (112–286)	1.3	0.8

DAL rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Javonte Williams RB	14 (9–20)	59 (23–118)	0.5
Dak Prescott QB	3 (1–6)	14 (1–44)	0.1
Malik Davis RB	3 (1–6)	12 (0–42)	0.1
Tyler Goodson RB	2 (1–5)	7 (0–31)	0.1

DAL receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
CeeDee Lamb WR	9 (5–13)	6 (3–9)	53 (15–109)	0.4
George Pickens WR	7 (4–11)	4 (2–7)	42 (9–93)	0.3
Ryan Flournoy WR	5 (2–8)	3 (1–6)	24 (2–65)	0.2
Jake Ferguson TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	14 (0–49)	0.1
Javonte Williams RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	10 (0–42)	0.1
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE	1 (0–3)	1 (0–2)	3 (0–28)	0.1

PHI passing

Player	Attempts	Completions	Yards	TDs (avg)	INTs (avg)
Tanner McKee QB	33 (24–43)	22 (16–29)	229 (143–327)	1.9	0.6

PHI rushing

Player	Carries	Yards	Rush TDs (avg)
Dameon Pierce RB	12 (7–17)	46 (16–99)	0.5
Saquon Barkley RB	7 (4–11)	35 (9–81)	0.3
Tank Bigsby RB	4 (2–7)	17 (2–51)	0.2
Tanner McKee QB	2 (1–5)	10 (0–37)	0.1

PHI receiving

Player	Targets	Catches	Yards	Rec TDs (avg)
Dallas Goedert TE	7 (4–11)	5 (2–8)	45 (12–99)	0.4
Makai Lemon WR	6 (3–9)	4 (2–7)	34 (6–82)	0.3
Dameon Pierce RB	4 (2–7)	3 (1–5)	21 (0–61)	0.2
Darius Cooper WR	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	17 (0–59)	0.2
Zach Ertz TE	3 (1–6)	2 (0–4)	16 (0–54)	0.2
Saquon Barkley RB	3 (1–5)	2 (0–4)	12 (0–46)	0.2

Touchdown scorers

Share of simulated games in which the player scored; the first-TD scorer is the first touchdown of that same game.

Player	Team	Anytime TD	2+ TDs	First TD of the game
Dameon Pierce RB	PHI	53.8%	16.1%	14.2%
Javonte Williams RB	DAL	48.6%	13.0%	11.8%
Saquon Barkley RB	PHI	38.7%	7.9%	8.8%
Dallas Goedert TE	PHI	33.7%	5.7%	7.5%
CeeDee Lamb WR	DAL	33.1%	5.8%	7.8%
Makai Lemon WR	PHI	30.1%	4.2%	6.5%
George Pickens WR	DAL	27.2%	3.8%	5.9%
Tank Bigsby RB	PHI	22.9%	2.2%	4.9%
Ryan Flournoy WR	DAL	18.2%	1.6%	3.5%
Zach Ertz TE	PHI	17.2%	1.4%	3.6%
Darius Cooper WR	PHI	16.5%	1.2%	3.1%
Malik Davis RB	DAL	14.7%	0.9%	2.7%
Jake Ferguson TE	DAL	13.7%	0.9%	2.7%
Tyler Goodson RB	DAL	13.4%	0.7%	2.6%
Grant Calcaterra TE	PHI	9.8%	0.4%	2.2%
Johnny Mundt TE	PHI	8.4%	0.3%	1.6%

First touchdown by team: DAL 43.5% · PHI 56.4% · no offensive touchdown 0.1%. Defensive and special-teams touchdowns are not credited to a player.

Representative simulated games

Real runs from this batch, picked by a fixed rule and replayed exactly. Each is one possible game, not the forecast.

Representative simulation — not the forecast median like: DAL 21 – 26 PHI

By quarter: DAL 7 / 7 / 7 / 0 · PHI 13 / 7 / 6 / 0

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DAL–PHI)
1	PHI	78	td	6	78	0–7
1	DAL	72	punt	3	16	0–7
1	PHI	86	punt	3	0	0–7
1	DAL	61	turnover	3	49	0–7
1	PHI	89	td	8	89	0–13
1	DAL	71	td	5	71	7–13
1	PHI	71	punt	8	8	7–13
2	DAL	95	punt	4	-1	7–13
2	PHI	41	td	8	41	7–20
2	DAL	65	td	8	65	14–20
2	DAL	77	td	1	77	21–20
3	PHI	90	fg	12	58	21–23
3	DAL	76	punt	3	8	21–23
3	PHI	63	fg	12	44	21–26
3	DAL	65	downs	13	54	21–26
4	PHI	90	turnover	11	53	21–26
4	DAL	72	end half	6	-1	21–26

Representative simulation — not the forecast high scoring: DAL 31 – 36 PHI

By quarter: DAL 3 / 7 / 14 / 7 · PHI 3 / 10 / 17 / 6

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DAL–PHI)
1	DAL	74	fg	3	73	3–0
1	PHI	44	fg	9	39	3–3
1	DAL	75	turnover	5	5	3–3
1	PHI	56	punt	3	2	3–3
1	DAL	87	turnover	8	58	3–3
2	PHI	71	td	7	71	3–10
2	DAL	68	punt	3	5	3–10
2	PHI	94	fg	12	56	3–13
2	DAL	64	td	6	64	10–13
2	PHI	75	fg	7	62	10–16
3	DAL	63	td	7	63	17–16
3	PHI	65	td	10	65	17–23
3	DAL	64	td	4	64	24–23
3	PHI	72	td	7	72	24–30
3	DAL	65	td	7	65	31–30
4	PHI	71	punt	3	10	31–30
4	DAL	70	downs	6	30	31–30
4	PHI	55	td	5	55	31–36
4	DAL	74	punt	3	12	31–36
4	PHI	84	end half	1	42	31–36

Representative simulation — not the forecast low scoring: DAL 13 – 19 PHI

By quarter: DAL 3 / 0 / 7 / 3 · PHI 7 / 7 / 3 / 2

Qtr	Offense	Start (yds to goal)	Result	Plays	Yards	Score after (DAL–PHI)
1	PHI	70	punt	3	2	0–0
1	DAL	71	fg	7	63	3–0
1	PHI	63	punt	3	6	3–0
1	DAL	92	punt	3	12	3–0
1	PHI	67	td	12	67	3–7
1	DAL	78	punt	13	16	3–7
2	PHI	69	punt	3	-11	3–7
2	DAL	71	punt	5	14	3–7
2	PHI	58	td	8	58	3–14
2	DAL	65	downs	9	11	3–14
2	PHI	46	end half	11	-1	3–14
2	DAL	65	td	5	65	10–14
3	PHI	65	fg	5	28	10–17
3	DAL	65	fg miss	8	36	10–17
3	PHI	96	punt	4	19	10–17
3	DAL	75	fg	14	46	13–17
4	PHI	71	punt	3	23	13–17
4	DAL	99	safety	6	-1	13–19
4	PHI	57	end half	1	-1	13–19

Technical detailsEngine version, run checks, timestamps, seed and receipt id.

Provenance

Engine	nfl-drive-sim-v2 2.0.0-shadow
Status	Game Simulation · not promoted · not the Official Forecast · feeds no pick or product
Runs	10,000 · incoherent runs 0 of 10,000
Generated	Oct 26, 8:05 PM ET · before kickoff Oct 26, 8:15 PM ET
Seed	8de2b7de · per-run mulberry32 seeded by splitmix(baseSeed, runIndex); baseSeed = fnv1a64(engine\|eventId\|inputHash)
Team strength	forecast receipt total.median 49 / margin.median 5 (nfl-regular-season-public-v1@v2) · calibrated means PHI 27.02 / DAL 22.05
Availability	injuries as of Oct 26, 7:31 PM ET · rosters as of Oct 26, 7:31 PM ET
Market	Not used as an input
Receipt	nfl-sim-v2:401873009:af43232b3b920434

Not modelled: downs and distance, penalties, timeouts, weather, kickers as players, defensive player stats, and exact final-score frequencies. Those are absent here rather than estimated. Educational and paper-only; not betting advice.