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MLB model board · 2026-10-26
1 MLB games · 38 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 26, 5:30 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
18
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
6
model vs market · context
Small gap
12
2 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomaliesChandler SimpsonTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+5.9%
proj 1.24-264 · draftkings
Brice TurangMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+14.9%
proj 1.17-157 · draftkings
Taylor WallsTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+17.1%
proj 1.6-143 · draftkings
Jackson ChourioMIL vs TB
Small gapHitsOver 0.5+1.2%
proj 1.15-257 · draftkings
Junior CamineroTB vs MIL
Small gapHitsOver 0.5+0.8%
proj 0.97-235 · draftkings
Jonny DelucaTB vs MIL
Gap 2.5–5 ppHitsOver 0.5+4.8%
proj 0.95-189 · draftkings
Cooper PrattMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+6.1%
proj 0.94-174 · draftkings
William ContrerasMIL vs TB
Small gapHitsOver 0.5+1.8%
proj 0.97-198 · draftkings
Filters · 38 of 38 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded
MIL@TB
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch8:00 PM ET
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded
MIL@TB
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Strikeouts
Robert GasserModel anomaly
MILvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
OVER3.5
Projection5.14
Edge+35.3%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 21 starts
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+104 · draftkings
Freddy Peralta
TBvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
UNDER4.5
Projection4.76
Edge−2.6%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 32 starts
+112 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Taylor Walls
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+17.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
-143 · draftkings
Brice Turang
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+14.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-157 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.96
Edge+13.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
+122 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+12.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-125 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+11.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
-112 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+10.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
+110 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.7
Edge+10.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
+132 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+10.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
+120 · draftkings
William Contreras
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+10%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
-102 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+9.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
+120 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+8.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
-114 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+7.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-109 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.5
Edge+6.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
+132 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+6.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-174 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-146 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+5.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-264 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+5.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-153 · draftkings
David Hamilton
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+5.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 114 games
-159 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+4.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
-124 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+4.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-189 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+4.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
+106 · draftkings
Ryan Vilade
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+4.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 93 games
-161 · draftkings
David Hamilton
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+3.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 114 games
-126 · draftkings
Ben Williamson
TBvsMILBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+2.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 86 games
+124 · draftkings
Brice TurangModel anomaly
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+23.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+123 · draftkings
Ben Williamson
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.1
Edge−2.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.40 across 86 games
+130 · draftkings
Ryan Vilade
TBvsMILBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−2.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 93 games
-107 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge−2.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-174 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−2.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-170 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−1.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-156 · draftkings
William Contreras
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+1.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-198 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
MILvsTBBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+1.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+119 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+1.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-257 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+0.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-235 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsMILBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+0.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-187 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TBvsMILBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−0.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
+190 · draftkings
Home runs live on the Power Board
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.