Tuesday, October 27
Game by game
Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.
MLB · 0–2 game calls
Full MLB record →Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →
Not in this record, but still graded below: 1 call paused on the site or not shown before the game.
MIL @ TB
Final · MIL 3 – 4 TBOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 9–12 →Call Pick Outcome Winner MIL (away) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 7 Push Run line (posted line) MIL -1.5 Loss
NBA · Official Forecast vs final
Each game's official winner side as it was frozen before tip, against the official final. A game with no final yet is pending and a disputed final is held — neither is ever counted as a miss. The model's NBA single picks are graded in the model suggestions record.
Model Performance · season to date: the official side won 44 and lost 27 of 71 decided games · 10 pending.
Counts, not an accuracy claim: the preregistered minimum before any judgment of the winner side is 300 graded games, and this is 71. The Elo-derived estimate shown on the boards is not a validated probability, and no calibration is claimed.
Tue, Oct 27 · 4 games · side won 3, lost 1
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKN @ BOStip 7:30 PM ET | BOSfrozen 11:18 AM ET | BKN 124 – 125 BOS | Side won |
| DET @ NYtip 8:00 PM ET | NYfrozen 11:18 AM ET | DET 97 – 111 NY | Side won |
| SAC @ SAtip 8:00 PM ET | SAfrozen 11:18 AM ET | SAC 103 – 130 SA | Side won |
| POR @ LALtip 11:00 PM ET | LALfrozen 11:18 AM ET | POR 136 – 129 LAL | Side lost |
Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff
Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.
No qualifying board was frozen for Tuesday, October 27.
- MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
- Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
- UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.
Product cards settled this day
Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.
Bank Builder · lane A
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Bank Builder · lane B
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane A
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane B
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Suggested Parlays published this day
The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.
Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
High Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Longshot
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks
Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.
- MLBCooper PrattOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+11.2pp edgeactual 7
- MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+11.1pp edgeactual 2
- MLBCooper PrattOver 0.5 Hits+8.8pp edgeactual 4
- MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Total Bases+8.4pp edgeactual 3
- MLBDavid HamiltonOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+4.0pp edgeactual 3
- MLBBrice TurangOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+19.9pp edgeactual 0
- MLBBrice TurangOver 0.5 Hits+11.1pp edgeactual 0
- MLBJake BauersOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+10.6pp edgeactual 0
- MLBWilliam ContrerasOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+10.0pp edgeactual 0
- MLBChristian YelichOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+5.7pp edgeactual 0
MIL @ TB9–1221 dec42.9%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | Strikeouts | Over 3.5 | 3.92 | 6 | +0.4% | Low | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits | Over 1.5 | 1.15 | 2 | +3.2% | Medium | Win |
| Christian Yelich | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.74 | 0 | -0.9% | Low | Win |
| William Contreras | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 0 | +1.7% | Low | Loss |
| Brice Turang | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 0 | +11.1% | High | Loss |
| Sal Frelick | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.56 | 1 | +3.5% | Medium | Loss |
| Jake Bauers | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.84 | 0 | +2.8% | Medium | Loss |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 0 | -3.3% | Low | Loss |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 4 | +8.8% | High | Win |
| David Hamilton | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.71 | 1 | +0.8% | Low | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 2 | +11.1% | High | Win |
| William Contreras | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.12 | 0 | +10.0% | High | Loss |
| Christian Yelich | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.79 | 0 | +5.7% | High | Loss |
| Brice Turang | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 0 | +19.9% | High | Loss |
| Jake Bauers | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.96 | 0 | +10.6% | High | Loss |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 0 | +4.1% | Medium | Loss |
| Sal Frelick | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.06 | 2 | -1.2% | Low | Loss |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 7 | +11.2% | High | Win |
| David Hamilton | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.24 | 3 | +4.0% | Medium | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 3 | +8.4% | High | Win |
| Christian Yelich | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.16 | 0 | +0.9% | Low | Loss |