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MLB model board · 2026-10-27
1 MLB games · 19 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 27, 5:29 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
8
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
5
model vs market · context
Small gap
6
0 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomaliesBrice TurangMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+11.1%
proj 1.17-185 · draftkings
Cooper PrattMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+8.8%
proj 0.94-155 · draftkings
Brice TurangMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.5+20%
proj 2.54+105 · draftkings
William ContrerasMIL vs TB
Small gapHitsOver 0.5+1.7%
proj 0.97-199 · draftkings
Jackson ChourioMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.5+11.1%
proj 2.62-133 · draftkings
David HamiltonMIL vs TB
Gap 2.5–5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+4.1%
proj 1.24-168 · draftkings
Jake BauersMIL vs TB
Gap 2.5–5 ppHitsOver 0.5+2.8%
proj 0.84-167 · draftkings
Sal FrelickMIL vs TB
Small gapHits + Runs + RBIsUnder 1.5−1.2%
proj 1.06-165 · draftkings
Filters · 19 of 19 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Tropicana Field19 leansFinal · graded
MIL@TB
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch8:00 PM ET
Tropicana Field19 leansFinal · graded
MIL@TB
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Strikeouts
Griffin Jax
TBvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
OVER3.5
Projection3.92
Edge+0.4%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 34 starts
-125 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Brice Turang
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+20%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
+105 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+11.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
+131 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+11.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
- SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-133 · draftkings
Brice Turang
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+11.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-185 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.96
Edge+10.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
+109 · draftkings
William Contreras
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+10%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
-102 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+8.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-155 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+5.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
- SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
-101 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.5
Edge+4.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
+118 · draftkings
David Hamilton
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+4.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 114 games
-168 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
MILvsTBBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+3.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+129 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER1.5
Projection1.15
Edge+3.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
+196 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+2.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-167 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−3.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-166 · draftkings
William Contreras
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+1.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-199 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge−1.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-165 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
MILvsTBBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−0.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
+150 · draftkings
David Hamilton
MILvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+0.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 114 games
-141 · draftkings
Home runs live on the Power Board
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.