Wednesday, October 28
Game by game
Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.
MLB · 0–2 game calls
Full MLB record →Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →
Not in this record, but still graded below: 1 call paused on the site or not shown before the game.
MIL @ TB
Final · MIL 4 – 1 TBOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 20–20 →Call Pick Outcome Winner TB (home) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6.5 Loss Run line (posted line) TB +1.5 Loss
NBA · Official Forecast vs final
Each game's official winner side as it was frozen before tip, against the official final. A game with no final yet is pending and a disputed final is held — neither is ever counted as a miss. The model's NBA single picks are graded in the model suggestions record.
Model Performance · season to date: the official side won 44 and lost 27 of 71 decided games · 10 pending.
Counts, not an accuracy claim: the preregistered minimum before any judgment of the winner side is 300 graded games, and this is 71. The Elo-derived estimate shown on the boards is not a validated probability, and no calibration is claimed.
Wed, Oct 28 · 12 games · side won 8, lost 4
| Game | Official side | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA @ ATLtip 7:00 PM ET | ATLfrozen 11:23 AM ET | MIA 129 – 117 ATL | Side lost |
| WSH @ CLEtip 7:00 PM ET | CLEfrozen 11:23 AM ET | WSH 111 – 121 CLE | Side won |
| CHA @ DETtip 7:00 PM ET | DETfrozen 11:23 AM ET | CHA 89 – 97 DET | Side won |
| PHI @ INDtip 7:00 PM ET | PHIfrozen 11:23 AM ET | PHI 114 – 109 IND | Side won |
| ORL @ TORtip 7:30 PM ET | TORfrozen 11:57 AM ET | ORL 99 – 129 TOR | Side won |
| NY @ CHItip 8:00 PM ET | NYfrozen 11:57 AM ET | NY 133 – 127 CHI | Side won |
| HOU @ MILtip 8:00 PM ET | HOUfrozen 11:57 AM ET | HOU 132 – 100 MIL | Side won |
| GS @ MINtip 8:00 PM ET | MINfrozen 11:57 AM ET | GS 119 – 114 MIN | Side lost |
| DEN @ NOtip 8:00 PM ET | DENfrozen 11:57 AM ET | DEN 104 – 91 NO | Side won |
| SA @ UTAHtip 9:00 PM ET | SAfrozen 11:57 AM ET | SA 117 – 111 UTAH | Side won |
| OKC @ DALtip 9:30 PM ET | OKCfrozen 11:57 AM ET | OKC 96 – 120 DAL | Side lost |
| LAL @ LACtip 10:30 PM ET | LACfrozen 11:57 AM ET | LAL 103 – 87 LAC | Side lost |
Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff
Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.
No qualifying board was frozen for Wednesday, October 28.
- MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
- Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
- UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.
Product cards settled this day
Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.
Bank Builder · lane A
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Bank Builder · lane B
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane A
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane B
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Suggested Parlays published this day
The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.
Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
High Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Longshot
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks
Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.
- MLBChandler SimpsonOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.1pp edgeactual 3
- MLBBrice TurangOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.2pp edgeactual 3
- MLBChandler SimpsonOver 0.5 Hits+14.8pp edgeactual 2
- MLBBrice TurangOver 0.5 Hits+10.7pp edgeactual 2
- MLBLiam HicksOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+9.0pp edgeactual 2
- MLBRichie PalaciosOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.6pp edgeactual 0
- MLBJacob MisiorowskiOver 5.5 Strikeouts+19.2pp edgeactual 2
- MLBJonny DelucaOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+14.6pp edgeactual 0
- MLBVictor Mesa Jr.Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+14.3pp edgeactual 0
- MLBJake BauersOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+13.4pp edgeactual 0
MIL @ TB20–2040 dec50.0%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 | 6.71 | 2 | +19.2% | High | Loss |
| Yandy Diaz | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.93 | 0 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.15 | 1 | +1.9% | Low | Win |
| William Contreras | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 1 | -2.2% | Low | Win |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 2 | +4.2% | Medium | Win |
| Brice Turang | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 2 | +10.7% | High | Win |
| Junior Caminero | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 1 | +5.8% | High | Win |
| Sal Frelick | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.56 | 0 | +5.5% | High | Win |
| Jonny Deluca | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | +6.2% | High | Loss |
| Christian Yelich | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 0 | -2.9% | Low | Loss |
| Chandler Simpson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.24 | 2 | +14.8% | High | Win |
| Jake Bauers | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.84 | 0 | +6.2% | High | Loss |
| Jonathan Aranda | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.86 | 0 | +6.7% | High | Loss |
| Liam Hicks | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.88 | 1 | +7.9% | High | Win |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 1 | +2.4% | Low | Win |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 0 | +9.9% | High | Loss |
| David Hamilton | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.71 | 1 | +4.0% | Medium | Win |
| Richie Palacios | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 0 | +10.6% | High | Loss |
| Taylor Walls | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.70 | 0 | +12.3% | High | Loss |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 1 | +12.8% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.12 | 3 | +5.6% | High | Win |
| Yandy Diaz | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.06 | 0 | +7.3% | High | Loss |
| Brice Turang | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 3 | +20.2% | Low | Win |
| Junior Caminero | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.15 | 1 | +14.1% | High | Loss |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 5 | +6.7% | High | Win |
| Christian Yelich | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.79 | 1 | +9.2% | High | Loss |
| Sal Frelick | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.06 | 0 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Jake Bauers | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.96 | 0 | +13.4% | High | Loss |
| Jonny Deluca | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.89 | 0 | +14.6% | High | Loss |
| Chandler Simpson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.04 | 3 | +21.1% | Low | Win |
| Jonathan Aranda | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.65 | 0 | +8.3% | High | Loss |
| Liam Hicks | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.70 | 2 | +9.0% | High | Win |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.50 | 1 | +6.7% | High | Win |
| David Hamilton | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.24 | 2 | +6.4% | High | Win |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.80 | 0 | +14.3% | High | Loss |
| Richie Palacios | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.84 | 0 | +22.6% | Low | Loss |
| Taylor Walls | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.60 | 0 | +22.9% | Low | Loss |
| Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 1 | +10.6% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 2 | +5.0% | Medium | Win |
| Yandy Diaz | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.29 | 0 | +1.5% | Low | Loss |