MLB · Total runs pick
796 forecasts published · 760 measured · 0 not final · 36 void or not measurable. Model: mlb-prediction-2026.08-v1.
0.266Brier score (n 760), lower is better
0.728log loss, lower is better
58.7% → 49.2%average forecast → how often it happened
0.095calibration error (ECE)
374–386–36pick record: the pick we published
Calibration
When we said a chance in each band, how often did it happen? A well-calibrated forecast lands close to its own number. Small bands are noisy.
| We said | Forecasts | Average forecast | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 91 | 47.4% | 47.3% |
| 50–60% | 368 | 54.5% | 50.5% |
| 60–70% | 217 | 64.5% | 47.5% |
| 70–80% | 73 | 73.1% | 47.9% |
| 80–90% | 11 | 82.8% | 63.6% |
Latest forecasts
The 60 most recent of 796. Download all 796 as CSV.
| Game | Forecast for | What we said | Market | What happened | Scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 ATL @ LAD | ATL @ LAD | 53.7% · OVER 7 published 2026-10-04 23:20Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.288 |
| 2026-10-04 SD @ MIL | SD @ MIL | 58.7% · OVER 7 published 2026-10-04 19:44Z | line 7 | Void — push | — |
| 2026-10-04 SD @ MIL | SD @ MIL | 62.4% · OVER 7 published 2026-10-03 23:58Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.389 |
| 2026-10-03 NYY @ TB | NYY @ TB | 46.0% · OVER 7 published 2026-10-03 22:15Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.212 |
| 2026-10-03 ATL @ LAD | ATL @ LAD | 56.0% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-10-03 19:19Z | line 8.5 | Happened | Brier 0.194 |
| 2026-10-03 CWS @ CLE | CWS @ CLE | 44.3% · OVER 7 published 2026-10-03 15:11Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.196 |
| 2026-10-02 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 57.0% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-10-01 23:59Z | line 7.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.325 |
| 2026-10-01 CHC @ SD | CHC @ SD | 62.5% · OVER 7 published 2026-10-01 01:21Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.391 |
| 2026-10-01 BOS @ NYY | BOS @ NYY | 50.9% · OVER 6.5 published 2026-09-30 23:07Z | line 6.5 | Happened | Brier 0.241 |
| 2026-09-30 CWS @ HOU | CWS @ HOU | 56.4% · OVER 7.5 published 2026-09-30 20:54Z | line 7.5 | Happened | Brier 0.190 |
| 2026-09-30 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 50.0% · UNDER 7 published 2026-09-30 16:51Z | line 7 | Void — push | — |
| 2026-09-30 CHC @ SD | CHC @ SD | 63.5% · OVER 7 published 2026-09-30 01:22Z | line 7 | Happened | Brier 0.133 |
| 2026-09-30 BOS @ NYY | BOS @ NYY | 60.3% · OVER 6.5 published 2026-09-29 23:49Z | line 6.5 | Happened | Brier 0.158 |
| 2026-09-29 CWS @ HOU | CWS @ HOU | 46.4% · OVER 8 published 2026-09-29 20:56Z | line 8 | Happened | Brier 0.287 |
| 2026-09-29 PHI @ ATL | PHI @ ATL | 54.4% · OVER 6.5 published 2026-09-29 16:55Z | line 6.5 | Happened | Brier 0.208 |
| 2026-09-27 AZ @ SD | AZ @ SD | 74.8% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 8 | Did not happen | Brier 0.560 |
| 2026-09-27 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 63.5% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 8.5 | Happened | Brier 0.133 |
| 2026-09-27 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 48.8% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 8 | Happened | Brier 0.262 |
| 2026-09-27 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 52.9% · UNDER 7 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.280 |
| 2026-09-27 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 69.0% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 8.5 | Happened | Brier 0.096 |
| 2026-09-27 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 73.6% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 8.5 | Happened | Brier 0.070 |
| 2026-09-27 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 48.9% · UNDER 7 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.239 |
| 2026-09-27 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 61.5% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-27 19:08Z | line 8 | Did not happen | Brier 0.378 |
| 2026-09-27 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 72.9% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 8.5 | Happened | Brier 0.073 |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 56.4% · UNDER 9.5 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 9.5 | Happened | Brier 0.190 |
| 2026-09-27 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 50.0% · UNDER 7 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.250 |
| 2026-09-27 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 57.6% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 8 | Happened | Brier 0.180 |
| 2026-09-27 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 57.4% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-27 15:41Z | line 8 | Did not happen | Brier 0.329 |
| 2026-09-27 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 55.7% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-09-27 00:43Z | line 8.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.310 |
| 2026-09-27 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 65.8% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-09-27 00:43Z | line 7.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.433 |
| 2026-09-27 AZ @ SD | AZ @ SD | 66.1% · OVER 7.5 published 2026-09-26 23:44Z | line 7.5 | Happened | Brier 0.115 |
| 2026-09-26 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 52.9% · UNDER 7 published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.280 |
| 2026-09-26 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 62.0% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | line 8.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.384 |
| 2026-09-26 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 61.8% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | line 7.5 | Happened | Brier 0.146 |
| 2026-09-26 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 55.0% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-26 23:00Z | line 8 | Did not happen | Brier 0.302 |
| 2026-09-26 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 61.2% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | line 8 | Void — push | — |
| 2026-09-26 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 62.6% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | line 8.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.392 |
| 2026-09-26 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 66.7% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-09-26 20:01Z | line 7.5 | Happened | Brier 0.111 |
| 2026-09-26 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 63.3% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-26 18:41Z | line 8 | Happened | Brier 0.135 |
| 2026-09-26 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 57.1% · OVER 8.5 published 2026-09-26 15:00Z | line 8.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.326 |
| 2026-09-26 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 53.6% · UNDER 8.5 published 2026-09-26 15:00Z | line 8.5 | Happened | Brier 0.215 |
| 2026-09-26 LAD @ SF | LAD @ SF | 51.8% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-09-26 01:52Z | line 7.5 | Happened | Brier 0.232 |
| 2026-09-26 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 65.4% · UNDER 7 published 2026-09-26 01:52Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.428 |
| 2026-09-26 TEX @ MIN | TEX @ MIN | 55.0% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-09-26 00:00Z | line 7.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.302 |
| 2026-09-25 STL @ MIL | STL @ MIL | 58.6% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | line 8 | Did not happen | Brier 0.343 |
| 2026-09-25 CLE @ KC | CLE @ KC | 57.4% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | line 7.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.329 |
| 2026-09-25 COL @ CWS | COL @ CWS | 60.3% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-25 23:22Z | line 8 | Happened | Brier 0.158 |
| 2026-09-25 ATL @ MIA | ATL @ MIA | 50.3% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 8 | Happened | Brier 0.247 |
| 2026-09-25 CIN @ TOR | CIN @ TOR | 67.5% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 7.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.456 |
| 2026-09-25 NYM @ WSH | NYM @ WSH | 46.2% · UNDER 8 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 8 | Did not happen | Brier 0.213 |
| 2026-09-25 TB @ PHI | TB @ PHI | 55.4% · OVER 6.5 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 6.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.307 |
| 2026-09-25 PIT @ DET | PIT @ DET | 51.9% · OVER 8 published 2026-09-25 22:34Z | line 8 | Happened | Brier 0.231 |
| 2026-09-25 BAL @ NYY | BAL @ NYY | 54.6% · OVER 6.5 published 2026-09-25 20:04Z | line 6.5 | Happened | Brier 0.206 |
| 2026-09-25 CHC @ BOS | CHC @ BOS | 62.3% · OVER 6.5 published 2026-09-25 15:51Z | line 6.5 | Happened | Brier 0.142 |
| 2026-09-25 SD @ LAD | SD @ LAD | 64.1% · OVER 8 published 2026-09-25 01:48Z | line 8 | Did not happen | Brier 0.411 |
| 2026-09-25 HOU @ ATH | HOU @ ATH | 71.8% · UNDER 10.5 published 2026-09-25 00:38Z | line 10.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.516 |
| 2026-09-25 LAA @ SEA | LAA @ SEA | 44.5% · UNDER 7 published 2026-09-25 00:38Z | line 7 | Did not happen | Brier 0.198 |
| 2026-09-24 CIN @ ATL | CIN @ ATL | 57.2% · UNDER 7.5 published 2026-09-24 22:34Z | line 7.5 | Did not happen | Brier 0.327 |
| 2026-09-24 TB @ NYY | TB @ NYY | 56.7% · OVER 6 published 2026-09-24 22:34Z | line 6 | Happened | Brier 0.187 |
| 2026-09-24 CLE @ BOS | CLE @ BOS | 45.0% · UNDER 7 published 2026-09-24 22:34Z | line 7 | Happened | Brier 0.302 |
Market numbers are the sportsbook’s, shown for context. They are not part of any score on this page.