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Results · one day

Thursday, October 15

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 2–2 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 2 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.

TB @ CLE
Final · TB 2 – 3 CLE
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner TB (away) Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6.5 Loss
Run line (posted line) TB +1.5 Win
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 21–23 →
MIL @ LAD
Final · MIL 6 – 4 LAD
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner LAD (home) Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7.5 Win
Run line (posted line) MIL +1.5 Win
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 21–19 →

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	TB (away)	Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 6.5	Loss
Run line (posted line)	TB +1.5	Win

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	LAD (home)	Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 7.5	Win
Run line (posted line)	MIL +1.5	Win

NFL · 1–0 game winners

Full NFL record →

Model Performance:Winner →

SEA @ DEN

Final · SEA 14 – 17 DEN

Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official final score

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	DEN (home)	Win

Player ranges · 32 of 33 finals landed inside the printed range

A coverage record, not wins and losses: a range is “inside” when the player's final landed within it as printed.

Player	Stat	Range	Final	Inside?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA	Receptions	2–14	12	Inside
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA	Receiving yards	31–159	134	Inside
Emanuel Wilson · SEA	Receptions	0–4	0	Inside
Emanuel Wilson · SEA	Receiving yards	0–39	0	Inside
Emanuel Wilson · SEA	Rushing yards	8–64	52	Inside
J.K. Dobbins · DEN	Rushing yards	15–86	41	Inside
RJ Harvey · DEN	Receptions	1–8	3	Inside
RJ Harvey · DEN	Receiving yards	2–57	31	Inside
RJ Harvey · DEN	Rushing yards	1–41	25	Inside
Jaylen Waddle · DEN	Receptions	1–8	4	Inside
Jaylen Waddle · DEN	Receiving yards	4–74	24	Inside
Courtland Sutton · DEN	Receptions	1–6	2	Inside
Courtland Sutton · DEN	Receiving yards	0–59	19	Inside
Jonah Coleman · DEN	Receptions	0–3	—	Not graded
Jonah Coleman · DEN	Rushing yards	0–38	—	Not graded
George Holani · SEA	Receptions	0–4	0	Inside
George Holani · SEA	Receiving yards	0–40	0	Inside
George Holani · SEA	Rushing yards	0–28	20	Inside
AJ Barner · SEA	Receptions	0–6	3	Inside
AJ Barner · SEA	Receiving yards	0–59	16	Inside
Rashid Shaheed · SEA	Receptions	0–5	5	Inside
Rashid Shaheed · SEA	Receiving yards	0–57	66	Outside
Cooper Kupp · SEA	Receptions	0–5	5	Inside
Cooper Kupp · SEA	Receiving yards	0–57	50	Inside
Evan Engram · DEN	Receptions	0–5	2	Inside
Evan Engram · DEN	Receiving yards	0–52	13	Inside
Bo Nix · DEN	Rushing yards	0–32	2	Inside
Bo Nix · DEN	Passing yards	106–318	107	Inside
Marvin Mims Jr. · DEN	Receptions	0–4	2	Inside
Marvin Mims Jr. · DEN	Receiving yards	0–36	13	Inside
Tyler Badie · DEN	Receptions	0–3	0	Inside
Lil'Jordan Humphrey · DEN	Receptions	0–3	—	Not graded
Lil'Jordan Humphrey · DEN	Receiving yards	0–34	—	Not graded
Troy Franklin · DEN	Receptions	0–3	1	Inside
Troy Franklin · DEN	Receiving yards	0–40	2	Inside
Sam Darnold · SEA	Passing yards	99–326	278	Inside
Tory Horton · SEA	Receiving yards	0–42	13	Inside

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

Published Wed, Oct 14, 8:54 PM ET · first kickoff Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA v DENDid not score
Projection 61.7% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 2 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
2. Emanuel Wilson SEA v DENDid not score
Projection 46.2% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 2 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
3. J.K. Dobbins DEN v SEAScored
Projection 34% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
4. RJ Harvey DEN v SEAScored
Projection 29.6% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
5. Jaylen Waddle DEN v SEADid not score
Projection 26.7% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →

NFL · Receptions · top 5

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA v DENInside the range · 12
Projection 7 rec (2–14) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 5 · 5 · 10 rec
Game receipt →
2. Jaylen Waddle DEN v SEAInside the range · 4
Projection 4 rec (1–8) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 2 · 5 · 2 rec
Game receipt →
3. RJ Harvey DEN v SEAInside the range · 3
Projection 3 rec (1–8) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 0 · 10 · 6 rec
Game receipt →
4. Courtland Sutton DEN v SEAInside the range · 2
Projection 3 rec (1–6) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 2 · 1 · 3 rec
Game receipt →
5. AJ Barner SEA v DENInside the range · 3
Projection 2 rec (0–6) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 3 · 1 · 5 rec
Game receipt →

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA v DENInside the range · 134
Projection 84 yds (30–160) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 102 · 76 · 128 yds
Game receipt →
2. Jaylen Waddle DEN v SEAInside the range · 24
Projection 31 yds (4–76) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 19 · 35 · 10 yds
Game receipt →
3. RJ Harvey DEN v SEAInside the range · 31
Projection 22 yds (2–59) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 0 · 68 · 41 yds
Game receipt →
4. Courtland Sutton DEN v SEAInside the range · 19
Projection 21 yds (0–60) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 18 · 4 · 46 yds
Game receipt →
5. AJ Barner SEA v DENInside the range · 16
Projection 21 yds (0–61) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 20 · 12 · 69 yds
Game receipt →

Not eligible that day: Rushing yards (estimate only), Passing yards (estimate only).

MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

Bank Builder · lane A
Won
Leg Official Grade
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 · Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians 2-3 Won
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 Won
Bank Builder · lane B
Lost
Leg Official Grade
Los Angeles Dodgers to win · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 Lost
Over 6.5 · Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians 5 Lost
Moonshot · lane A
Won
Leg Official Grade
Cleveland Guardians to win · Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians 2-3 Won
Milwaukee Brewers to win · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers 6-4 Won
Moonshot · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

Leg	Official	Grade
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 · Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians	2-3	Won
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	6-4	Won

Leg	Official	Grade
Los Angeles Dodgers to win · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	6-4	Lost
Over 6.5 · Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians	5	Lost

Leg	Official	Grade
Cleveland Guardians to win · Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians	2-3	Won
Milwaukee Brewers to win · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers	6-4	Won

Suggested Parlays published this day

The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.

Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
High Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
Longshot
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB

50.0%

42–42 on 84

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBTyler GlasnowOver 5.5 Strikeouts+30.0pp edgeactual 6
MLBBrayan RocchioOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+25.9pp edgeactual 1
MLBRichie PalaciosOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.4pp edgeactual 1
MLBBrayan RocchioOver 0.5 Hits+19.8pp edgeactual 1
MLBAndy PagesOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.4pp edgeactual 4

Biggest misses

MLBMookie BettsOver 1.5 Total Bases+21.1pp edgeactual 0
MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.3pp edgeactual 0
MLBJonny DelucaOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+15.9pp edgeactual 0
MLBMookie BettsOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+13.9pp edgeactual 0
MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Total Bases+13.9pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

TB @ CLE

21–2344 dec47.7%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Gavin Williams	Strikeouts	Over 6.5	7.15	9	+8.1%	High	Win
Griffin Jax	Strikeouts	Under 3.5	3.92	2	-2.7%	Low	Win
Chandler Simpson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	1	+7.1%	High	Win
Yandy Diaz	Hits	Under 0.5	0.93	1	-3.3%	Low	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	0	+0.3%	Low	Loss
Jose Ramirez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.05	2	+6.3%	High	Win
Steven Kwan	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	0	+6.2%	High	Loss
Jo Adell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	0	+2.6%	Medium	Loss
Junior Caminero	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	0	+5.5%	High	Loss
Jonny Deluca	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	0	+9.7%	High	Loss
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	1	+1.0%	Low	Win
Travis Bazzana	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	+0.2%	Low	Loss
Liam Hicks	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	0	+6.5%	High	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	+7.5%	High	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	0	+8.3%	High	Loss
Patrick Bailey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	1	-2.1%	Low	Win
Petey Halpin	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	1	+4.8%	Medium	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	1	+19.8%	High	Win
Richie Palacios	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	1	+8.5%	High	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	+9.6%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	0	+7.1%	High	Loss
Jose Ramirez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	2	+11.6%	High	Win
Jo Adell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.92	1	+6.3%	High	Loss
Chandler Simpson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.04	3	+13.1%	High	Win
Yandy Diaz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.06	2	+9.7%	High	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	0	+13.7%	High	Loss
Steven Kwan	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.83	0	+10.1%	High	Loss
Travis Bazzana	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.45	0	+5.6%	High	Loss
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.45	2	+6.2%	High	Win
Jonny Deluca	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.89	0	+15.9%	High	Loss
Liam Hicks	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.70	0	+7.6%	High	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.65	0	+9.1%	High	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.80	1	+11.5%	High	Win
Patrick Bailey	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	2	+8.6%	High	Win
Petey Halpin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.42	4	+12.4%	High	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.30	1	+25.9%	Low	Win
Richie Palacios	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.84	1	+20.4%	Low	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.60	0	+20.8%	Low	Loss
Jo Adell	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.46	0	+7.0%	High	Loss
Junior Caminero	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.70	0	+11.8%	High	Loss
Jose Ramirez	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.60	2	+10.8%	High	Win
Chase DeLauter	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.70	0	+13.0%	High	Loss
Yandy Diaz	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.29	2	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Chandler Simpson	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.44	3	+8.7%	High	Win

MIL @ LAD

21–1940 dec52.5%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Mookie Betts	Hits	Over 0.5	1.25	0	+6.8%	High	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.15	0	+5.2%	High	Loss
Freddie Freeman	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	0	+0.3%	Low	Loss
Teoscar Hernandez	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	1	+8.6%	High	Win
William Contreras	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	1	+3.0%	Medium	Win
Will Smith	Hits	Over 0.5	1.07	1	+9.6%	High	Win
Shohei Ohtani	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	1	+1.4%	Low	Win
Brice Turang	Hits	Over 0.5	1.17	0	+12.9%	High	Loss
Andy Pages	Hits	Over 0.5	1.08	2	+10.4%	High	Win
Sal Frelick	Hits	Under 0.5	0.56	0	+2.1%	Low	Win
Christian Yelich	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	+0.9%	Low	Loss
Max Muncy	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	1	+5.3%	High	Win
Kyle Tucker	Hits	Over 0.5	1.01	2	+12.2%	High	Win
Cooper Pratt	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	0	+11.1%	High	Loss
Jake Bauers	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	1	+8.1%	High	Win
Garrett Mitchell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.72	1	+3.5%	Medium	Win
Enrique Hernandez	Hits	Over 0.5	0.68	0	+6.7%	High	Loss
David Hamilton	Hits	Over 0.5	0.71	2	+10.1%	High	Win
Mookie Betts	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.57	0	+13.9%	High	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.62	0	+16.3%	High	Loss
Freddie Freeman	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.72	0	+3.3%	Medium	Loss
Shohei Ohtani	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.71	5	+2.5%	Low	Win
Teoscar Hernandez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	2	+8.9%	High	Win
Will Smith	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.09	1	+13.3%	High	Loss
William Contreras	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.12	2	+12.2%	High	Win
Andy Pages	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.33	4	+17.4%	High	Win
Brice Turang	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.54	1	+22.0%	Low	Loss
Max Muncy	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.85	1	+9.9%	High	Loss
Kyle Tucker	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.08	3	+16.4%	High	Win
Sal Frelick	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.06	1	-1.6%	Low	Win
Christian Yelich	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.79	0	+12.9%	High	Loss
Jake Bauers	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.96	4	+15.3%	High	Win
Cooper Pratt	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.71	0	+10.2%	High	Loss
Garrett Mitchell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.50	3	+5.6%	High	Win
Enrique Hernandez	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.51	0	+13.5%	High	Loss
David Hamilton	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.24	6	+12.2%	High	Win
Mookie Betts	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.33	0	+21.1%	Low	Loss
Jackson Chourio	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.85	0	+13.9%	High	Loss
Freddie Freeman	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.21	0	+2.3%	Low	Loss
Tyler Glasnow	Strikeouts	Over 5.5	8.53	6	+30.0%	Low	Win

all settled dates

Game by game

MLB · 2–2 game calls

TB @ CLE

MIL @ LAD

NFL · 1–0 game winners

SEA @ DEN

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

NFL · Receptions · top 5

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

Product cards settled this day

Bank Builder · lane A

Bank Builder · lane B

Moonshot · lane A

Moonshot · lane B

Suggested Parlays published this day

Low Risk

Medium Risk

High Risk

Longshot

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks