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GameTime Picks
Settled · graded against final box scores
42–42 on 84 decisive picks · 50.0%2026-10-15
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MLB model board · 2026-10-15

2 MLB games · 75 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 15, 5:27 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
53
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
5
model vs market · context
Small gap
12
5 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Strikeouts1 gap ≥ 5 pp·3 totalHits23 gap ≥ 5 pp·36 totalHits + Runs + RBIs29 gap ≥ 5 pp·36 total
Filters · 75 of 75 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Progressive Field38 leansFinal · graded

TB@CLE

Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians

first pitch
1:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Griffin Jax
probable · awayGriffin Jax
TB
Gavin Williams
probable · homeGavin Williams
CLE
Strikeouts
Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
CLEvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection7.15
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.8 K across 32 starts
-104 · draftkings
Griffin Jax
Griffin Jax
TBvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER3.5
Projection3.92
Edge−2.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.4 K across 34 starts
+114 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+19.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-114 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.89
Edge+15.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
+135 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+13.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
+106 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+13.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
-104 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.42
Edge+12.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.15 across 67 games
-141 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 124 games
-107 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+11.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
-167 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
+109 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-153 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
-102 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+9.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
+101 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.65
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
-175 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+8.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-156 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+8.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-111 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-134 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.7
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
-184 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-139 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
-108 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-249 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+6.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-146 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+6.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
-105 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
Jose Ramirez
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+6.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 124 games
-208 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-206 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
+134 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
+130 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+5.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-190 · draftkings
Petey Halpin
Petey Halpin
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.60 across 67 games
-120 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-197 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+25.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-138 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor WallsModel anomaly
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+20.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-123 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie PalaciosModel anomaly
TBvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.84
Edge+20.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 118 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-135 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
+166 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-134 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-151 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-214 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-149 · draftkings
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium37 leansFinal · graded

MIL@LAD

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
probable · awayTBD
MIL
Tyler Glasnow
probable · homeTyler Glasnow
LAD
Strikeouts
Tyler Glasnow
Tyler GlasnowModel anomaly
LADvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER5.5
Projection8.53
Edge+30%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 9.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.5 K across 13 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-162 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+17.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 133 games
+114 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.08
Edge+16.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 153 games
+123 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+16.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-108 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.96
Edge+15.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
+132 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.57
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 123 games
-116 · draftkings
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.51
Edge+13.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.22 across 36 games
-135 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.09
Edge+13.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 73 games
+102 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+12.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-171 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+12.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
+132 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
+107 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 153 games
-144 · draftkings
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 114 games
-120 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+11.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-141 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+10.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 133 games
-168 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+10.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
-179 · draftkings
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 114 games
+103 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.85
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 148 games
+116 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+9.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-186 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.99
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 125 games
-101 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
Teoscar Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+8.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.94 across 125 games
-190 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-134 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+6.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 123 games
-223 · draftkings
Enrique Hernandez
Enrique Hernandez
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge+6.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.56 across 36 games
-107 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.5
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
-170 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 148 games
-150 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+5.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-213 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+3.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-125 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 153 games
-106 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-188 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangModel anomaly
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+22%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+114 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.33 across 135 games
-105 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+122 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge−1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-168 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+1.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 135 games
-180 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-150 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+0.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 153 games
-212 · draftkings
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