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Overview MLB· live NFL· week report NBA· Official Forecast record Parlays· pending snapshots

Results · one day

Monday, October 5

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 2–2 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 2 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.

CWS @ CLE
Final · CWS 4 – 3 CLE
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner CLE (home) Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6.5 Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5) CWS +1.5 Win
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 19–15 →
NYY @ TB
Final · NYY 2 – 5 TB
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner TB (home) Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6.5 Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5) NYY +1.5 Loss
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 19–16 →

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	CLE (home)	Loss
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 6.5	Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5)	CWS +1.5	Win

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	TB (home)	Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	OVER 6.5	Win
Run line (simulated ±1.5)	NYY +1.5	Loss

NFL · 0–1 game winners

Full NFL record →

Model Performance:Winner →

ATL @ NO

Final · ATL 45 – 24 NO

Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official final score

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	NO (home)	Loss

Player ranges · 25 of 28 finals landed inside the printed range

A coverage record, not wins and losses: a range is “inside” when the player's final landed within it as printed.

Player	Stat	Range	Final	Inside?
Bijan Robinson · ATL	Receptions	1–8	1	Inside
Bijan Robinson · ATL	Receiving yards	10–88	2	Outside
Bijan Robinson · ATL	Rushing yards	25–182	145	Inside
Chris Olave · NO	Receptions	2–9	8	Inside
Chris Olave · NO	Receiving yards	21–129	116	Inside
Juwan Johnson · NO	Receptions	1–6	6	Inside
Juwan Johnson · NO	Receiving yards	3–76	59	Inside
Alvin Kamara · NO	Receptions	0–4	5	Outside
Alvin Kamara · NO	Receiving yards	0–43	35	Inside
Alvin Kamara · NO	Rushing yards	5–80	23	Inside
Drake London · ATL	Receptions	2–10	5	Inside
Drake London · ATL	Receiving yards	23–144	96	Inside
Devaughn Vele · NO	Receptions	1–6	6	Inside
Devaughn Vele · NO	Receiving yards	4–76	54	Inside
Brian Robinson · ATL	Rushing yards	4–83	62	Inside
Kendre Miller · NO	Rushing yards	2–63	9	Inside
Jahan Dotson · ATL	Receptions	0–5	2	Inside
Jahan Dotson · ATL	Receiving yards	0–58	54	Inside
Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL	Receptions	0–5	3	Inside
Kyle Pitts Sr. · ATL	Receiving yards	0–56	47	Inside
Tyler Shough · NO	Rushing yards	0–53	5	Inside
Tyler Shough · NO	Passing yards	138–379	286	Inside
Austin Hooper · ATL	Receptions	0–4	1	Inside
Austin Hooper · ATL	Receiving yards	0–48	9	Inside
Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL	Receptions	0–3	0	Inside
Olamide Zaccheaus · ATL	Receiving yards	0–40	0	Inside
Spencer Rattler · NO	Rushing yards	0–43	—	Not graded
Michael Penix Jr. · ATL	Rushing yards	0–22	-2	Outside
Michael Penix Jr. · ATL	Passing yards	116–367	223	Inside
Kevin Austin Jr. · NO	Receptions	0–3	—	Not graded
Kevin Austin Jr. · NO	Receiving yards	0–41	—	Not graded

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

Published Sun, Oct 4, 9:18 PM ET · first kickoff Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

1. Bijan Robinson ATL v NOScored
Projection 58.2% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 2 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
2. Chris Olave NO v ATLDid not score
Projection 40.6% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
3. Juwan Johnson NO v ATLDid not score
Projection 31.3% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 2 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
4. Alvin Kamara NO v ATLScored
Projection 30.9% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 2 games on our boards
Game receipt →
5. Drake London ATL v NODid not score
Projection 29.7% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →

NFL · Receptions · top 5

1. Chris Olave NO v ATLInside the range · 8
Projection 6 rec (2–10) · line 6.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 9 · 8 · 10 rec — above 6.5 in 3 of 3
Game receipt →
2. Drake London ATL v NOInside the range · 5
Projection 5 rec (2–10) · line 5.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 9 · 4 · 2 rec — above 5.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →
3. Bijan Robinson ATL v NOInside the range · 1
Projection 4 rec (2–8) · line 4.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 2 · 3 · 8 rec — above 4.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →
4. Devaughn Vele NO v ATLInside the range · 6
Projection 3 rec (1–6) · line 4.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 3 · 5 · 7 rec — above 4.5 in 2 of 3
Game receipt →
5. Juwan Johnson NO v ATLInside the range · 6
Projection 3 rec (1–6) · line 3.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 8 · 4 · 3 rec — above 3.5 in 2 of 3
Game receipt →

NFL · Rushing yards · top 5

1. Bijan Robinson ATL v NOInside the range · 145
Projection 75 yds (24–174) · line 86.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 194 · 72 · 83 yds — above 86.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →
2. Alvin Kamara NO v ATLInside the range · 23
Projection 26 yds (5–80) · line 37.5
Last 2 games on our boards: 36 · 15 yds — above 37.5 in 0 of 2
Game receipt →
3. Brian Robinson ATL v NOInside the range · 62
Projection 25 yds (4–79) · line 28.5
Last 2 games on our boards: 50 · 51 yds — above 28.5 in 2 of 2
Game receipt →
4. Kendre Miller NO v ATLInside the range · 9
Projection 17 yds (2–63) · line 25.5
Last 2 games on our boards: 14 · 30 yds — above 25.5 in 1 of 2
Game receipt →
5. Tyler Shough NO v ATLInside the range · 5
Projection 11 yds (0–53) · line 18.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 36 · 23 · 8 yds — above 18.5 in 2 of 3
Game receipt →

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

1. Drake London ATL v NOInside the range · 96
Projection 71 yds (22–143) · line 78.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 194 · 51 · 29 yds — above 78.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →
2. Chris Olave NO v ATLInside the range · 116
Projection 65 yds (21–130) · line 85.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 107 · 86 · 182 yds — above 85.5 in 3 of 3
Game receipt →
3. Bijan Robinson ATL v NOOutside the range · 2
Projection 40 yds (10–88) · line 39.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 19 · 9 · 90 yds — above 39.5 in 1 of 3
Game receipt →
4. Devaughn Vele NO v ATLInside the range · 54
Projection 30 yds (4–76) · line 45.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 39 · 64 · 69 yds — above 45.5 in 2 of 3
Game receipt →
5. Juwan Johnson NO v ATLInside the range · 59
Projection 29 yds (3–78) · line 40.5
Last 3 games on our boards: 53 · 66 · 54 yds — above 40.5 in 3 of 3
Game receipt →

Not eligible that day: Passing yards (estimate only).

MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

Bank Builder · lane A
Won
Leg Official Grade
Chicago White Sox +1.5 · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians 4-3 Won
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays 2-5 Won
Bank Builder · lane B
Lost
Leg Official Grade
Cleveland Guardians to win · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians 4-3 Lost
Over 6.5 · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays 7 Won
Moonshot · lane A
Lost
Leg Official Grade
Chicago White Sox to win · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians 4-3 Won
New York Yankees to win · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays 2-5 Lost
Moonshot · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

Leg	Official	Grade
Chicago White Sox +1.5 · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	4-3	Won
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays	2-5	Won

Leg	Official	Grade
Cleveland Guardians to win · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	4-3	Lost
Over 6.5 · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays	7	Won

Leg	Official	Grade
Chicago White Sox to win · Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians	4-3	Won
New York Yankees to win · New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays	2-5	Lost

Suggested Parlays published this day

The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.

Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
High Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
Longshot
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB

55.1%

38–31 on 69

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBRichie PalaciosOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+25.9pp edgeactual 3
MLBMiguel VargasOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+23.3pp edgeactual 2
MLBChase MeidrothOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.6pp edgeactual 3
MLBChase MeidrothOver 0.5 Hits+20.7pp edgeactual 2
MLBBraden MontgomeryOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+19.3pp edgeactual 4

Biggest misses

MLBBrayan RocchioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+23.5pp edgeactual 0
MLBSam AntonacciOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.9pp edgeactual 0
MLBAndrew BenintendiOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.4pp edgeactual 0
MLBGeorge Lombard Jr.Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.3pp edgeactual 0
MLBVictor Mesa Jr.Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+12.6pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

CWS @ CLE

19–1534 dec55.9%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Gavin Williams	Strikeouts	Under 7.5	7.15	11	+5.2%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	2	+0.1%	Low	Win
Steven Kwan	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+5.9%	High	Win
Jo Adell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	1	+4.7%	Medium	Win
Sam Antonacci	Hits	Over 0.5	1.13	0	+12.8%	High	Loss
Brayan Rocchio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+11.5%	High	Loss
Chase Meidroth	Hits	Over 0.5	1.26	2	+20.7%	Low	Win
Miguel Vargas	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	1	+9.2%	High	Win
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	+3.3%	Medium	Loss
Tristan Peters	Hits	Under 0.5	0.49	0	+0.4%	Low	Win
Travis Bazzana	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	+3.7%	Medium	Loss
Munetaka Murakami	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	1	+13.1%	High	Win
Braden Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	1	+18.7%	High	Win
Patrick Bailey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	0	+2.1%	Low	Loss
Kyle Teel	Hits	Over 0.5	0.67	1	+5.1%	High	Win
Colson Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	0.52	0	+2.9%	Medium	Loss
Andrew Benintendi	Hits	Over 0.5	0.66	0	+10.5%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	3	+6.5%	High	Win
Steven Kwan	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.83	2	+7.2%	High	Win
Jo Adell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.92	2	+7.6%	High	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.30	0	+23.5%	Low	Loss
Miguel Vargas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.39	2	+23.3%	Low	Win
Sam Antonacci	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.14	0	+21.9%	Low	Loss
Chase Meidroth	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.60	3	+22.6%	Low	Win
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.45	1	+5.8%	High	Win
Travis Bazzana	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.45	0	+4.9%	Medium	Loss
Munetaka Murakami	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.45	2	+19.3%	High	Win
Tristan Peters	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.19	0	+2.8%	Medium	Loss
Kyle Teel	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.97	2	+16.5%	High	Win
Patrick Bailey	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	0	+10.9%	High	Loss
Braden Montgomery	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.80	4	+19.3%	High	Win
Colson Montgomery	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	0	+12.6%	High	Loss
Andrew Benintendi	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.69	0	+21.4%	Low	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.70	2	+14.9%	High	Win

NYY @ TB

19–1635 dec54.3%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Cam Schlittler	Strikeouts	Under 6.5	6.74	2	-2.4%	Low	Win
Freddy Peralta	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	4.76	3	+4.2%	Medium	Win
Cody Bellinger	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	1	+0.6%	Low	Win
Chandler Simpson	Hits	Over 0.5	1.24	1	+10.9%	High	Win
Junior Caminero	Hits	Over 0.5	0.97	2	+4.5%	Medium	Win
Ben Rice	Hits	Over 0.5	0.99	2	+5.9%	High	Win
Spencer Jones	Hits	Over 0.5	0.68	0	-1.4%	Low	Loss
George Lombard Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	1.03	0	+14.7%	High	Loss
Trent Grisham	Hits	Under 0.5	0.52	0	+0.8%	Low	Win
Jonathan Aranda	Hits	Over 0.5	0.86	2	+7.0%	High	Win
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.95	0	+12.4%	High	Loss
Liam Hicks	Hits	Over 0.5	0.88	0	+8.6%	High	Loss
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	0	+9.1%	High	Loss
Taylor Walls	Hits	Over 0.5	0.70	0	+8.1%	High	Loss
Austin Wells	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	1	+4.4%	Medium	Win
Richie Palacios	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	1	+13.9%	High	Win
Ryan McMahon	Hits	Over 0.5	0.65	0	+10.5%	High	Loss
Ben Rice	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.25	6	+11.6%	High	Win
Cody Bellinger	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.95	1	+8.6%	High	Loss
Junior Caminero	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.15	3	+13.7%	High	Win
Chandler Simpson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.04	3	+17.8%	High	Win
Spencer Jones	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.68	0	+8.8%	High	Loss
George Lombard Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	2.51	0	+20.3%	Low	Loss
Trent Grisham	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.29	0	+0.2%	Low	Loss
Jonathan Aranda	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.65	3	+9.3%	High	Win
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.81	0	+12.1%	High	Loss
Liam Hicks	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.70	1	+10.1%	High	Win
Victor Mesa Jr.	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.80	0	+12.6%	High	Loss
Austin Wells	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.40	1	+14.9%	High	Win
Taylor Walls	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.60	0	+20.0%	Low	Loss
Richie Palacios	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.84	3	+25.9%	Low	Win
Ryan McMahon	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.57	0	+22.6%	Low	Loss
Ben Rice	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.14	8	+18.1%	High	Win
Cody Bellinger	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.56	1	+7.8%	High	Loss
Junior Caminero	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.70	3	+12.1%	High	Win

all settled dates

Game by game

MLB · 2–2 game calls

CWS @ CLE

NYY @ TB

NFL · 0–1 game winners

ATL @ NO

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

NFL · Receptions · top 5

NFL · Rushing yards · top 5

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

Product cards settled this day

Bank Builder · lane A

Bank Builder · lane B

Moonshot · lane A

Moonshot · lane B

Suggested Parlays published this day

Low Risk

Medium Risk

High Risk

Longshot

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks