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MLB model board · 2026-10-05
2 MLB games · 75 model-vs-market reads
Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.
Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.
SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 5, 8:22 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
38
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
9
model vs market · context
Small gap
8
10 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
10
no projection emitted
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomaliesMunetaka MurakamiCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+19.3%
proj 2.45-159 · draftkings
Chandler SimpsonTB vs NYY
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+10.9%
proj 1.24-208 · draftkings
Braden MontgomeryCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+19.3%
proj 1.8-137 · draftkings
Kyle TeelCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+16.5%
proj 1.97-154 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+12.1%
proj 1.81-173 · draftkings
Sam AntonacciCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+12.8%
proj 1.13-165 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.TB vs NYY
Gap ≥ 5 ppHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+12.6%
proj 1.8-159 · draftkings
Steven KwanCLE vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 ppHitsOver 0.5+5.9%
proj 1.11-209 · draftkings
Filters · 75 of 75 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Progressive Field37 leansFinal · graded
CWS@CLE
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
first pitch5:00 PM ET
Progressive Field37 leansFinal · graded
CWS@CLE
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians
first pitch
5:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Strikeouts
Gavin Williams
CLEvsCWSPitcherStrikeouts
UNDER7.5
Projection7.15
Edge+5.2%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 7.8 K across 32 starts
+101 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+19.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 92 games
-137 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection2.45
Edge+19.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 127 games
-159 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+18.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 92 games
-115 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+16.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 39 games
-154 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+13.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 127 games
-116 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.13
Edge+12.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 139 games
-165 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+12.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
-115 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+11.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-160 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+10.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-142 · draftkings
Andrew Benintendi
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.66
Edge+10.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 141 games
+113 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+9.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 159 games
-146 · draftkings
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+7.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
+100 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+7.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
-103 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+6.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
-111 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+5.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-209 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+5.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
-174 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+5.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 39 games
-112 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.45
Edge+4.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
-167 · draftkings
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+4.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-180 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+3.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-129 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+3.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-137 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+2.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 153 games
+108 · draftkings
Tristan Peters
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.19
Edge+2.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.57 across 149 games
-155 · draftkings
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+23.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+130 · draftkings
Miguel VargasModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+23.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
- SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 159 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+136 · draftkings
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection2.6
Edge+22.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 154 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-178 · draftkings
Sam AntonacciModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.14
Edge+21.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 139 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+139 · draftkings
Andrew BenintendiModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.69
Edge+21.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.68 across 141 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-108 · draftkings
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+20.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
- SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 154 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-148 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+2.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-113 · draftkings
Tristan Peters
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.49
Edge+0.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 149 games
+100 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+0.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-216 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CWS @ CLEBatterHits
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CWS @ CLEBatterHits
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CWS @ CLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CWS @ CLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded
NYY@TB
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch8:00 PM ET
Tropicana Field38 leansFinal · graded
NYY@TB
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Strikeouts
Freddy Peralta
TBvsNYYPitcherStrikeouts
UNDER5.5
Projection4.76
Edge+4.2%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.7 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 4.9 K across 32 starts
-155 · draftkings
Cam Schlittler
NYYvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
UNDER6.5
Projection6.74
Edge−2.4%
- Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 6.3 strikeouts
- SeasonSeason average 7.2 K across 33 starts
+108 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Chandler Simpson
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+17.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
+116 · draftkings
Austin Wells
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.4
Edge+14.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 121 games
-134 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+14.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 42 games
-142 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
TBvsNYYBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+14%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
+112 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+13.7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
- SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
+106 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+12.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
-159 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+12.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
- SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 136 games
-137 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.81
Edge+12.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 136 games
-173 · draftkings
Ben Rice
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection2.25
Edge+11.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 154 games
-105 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
TBvsNYYBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+10.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
- SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-208 · draftkings
Ryan McMahon
NYYvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+10.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 115 games
+115 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.7
Edge+10.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
- SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
-165 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.65
Edge+9.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
- SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
-174 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsNYYBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+9.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-130 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.68
Edge+8.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 84 games
+122 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+8.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
- SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 132 games
+100 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
TBvsNYYBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+8.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-134 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
TBvsNYYBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+8.1%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
-105 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsNYYBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+7%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-141 · draftkings
Ben Rice
NYYvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge+5.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
- SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 154 games
-179 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
TBvsNYYBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+4.5%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-198 · draftkings
Austin Wells
NYYvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge+4.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
- SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 121 games
-103 · draftkings
Richie PalaciosModel anomaly
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.84
Edge+25.9%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 118 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-108 · draftkings
Ryan McMahonModel anomaly
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.57
Edge+22.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
- SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 115 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-105 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.Model anomaly
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection2.51
Edge+20.3%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
- SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 42 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-186 · draftkings
Taylor WallsModel anomaly
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+20%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
- SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
- Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-127 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
NYYvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−1.4%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
- SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 84 games
-149 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
NYYvsTBBatterHits
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+0.8%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
- SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 120 games
+107 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsTBBatterHits
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+0.6%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
- SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 132 games
-218 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
OVER0.5
Projection1.29
Edge+0.2%
- Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
- SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 120 games
-180 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
NYY @ TBBatterHits
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
NYY @ TBBatterHits
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
NYY @ TBBatterHits
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
NYY @ TBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
NYY @ TBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
NYY @ TBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
- Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Home runs live on the Power Board
Open the MLB Power Board →
HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.