ATL @ NO
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome.
Regular season · week 4 · Monday, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Atlanta Falconsat
New Orleans SaintsEXPERIMENTAL
Caesars Superdome
Indoors — roofed stadium, no weather to report — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.
Simulation story
5 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
ATL 21 — 23 NO
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
ATL 45.8% · NO 51.2%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.0%
Total points (both teams)
44
8 in 10 simulations landed between 27 and 61
NO winning margin
+1
a minus means ATL wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -16 and 17
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- ATL
- 21 (46% pregame win chance)
- NO
- 23 (51% pregame win chance)
Forecast frozen at Oct 3, 2:37 PM ET. It does not change during the game.
Model details
From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameATL 21 — 23 NOwin chance ATL 45.8% · NO 51.2%total 44 (27–61)margin +1
ATL
Likely TD scorers
Bijan Robinson 58.2%
Drake London 29.6%
Brian Robinson 25.6%
Passing
Michael Penix Jr. 218 pass yds (116–367)
Rushing — withheld for ATL: the players' modelled shares add up to 105% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled
Receiving leaders
Drake London 5 rec · 71 yds
Bijan Robinson 4 rec · 41 yds
Jahan Dotson 2 rec · 20 yds
NO
Likely TD scorers
Chris Olave 40.6%
Juwan Johnson 31.3%
Alvin Kamara 30.9%
Passing
Tyler Shough 238 pass yds (138–379)
Rushing leaders
Alvin Kamara 26 rush yds (5–80)
Kendre Miller 17 rush yds (2–63)
Receiving leaders
Chris Olave 5 rec · 64 yds
Juwan Johnson 3 rec · 30 yds
Devaughn Vele 3 rec · 30 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (9)
- Rushing ATL — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
- Jack Strand ATL — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Zachariah Branch ATL — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- Tua Tagovailoa ATL — Role not yet observed: no game for ATL yet this season — role at ATL not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 16 games for MIA, 2.7 rush yds · 171 pass yds per game.
- Cooper Rush ATL — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Spencer Rattler NO — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Bryce Lance NO — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- Travis Etienne Jr. NO — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Cedric Tillman NO — Role not yet observed: no game for NO yet this season — role at NO not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 13 games for CLE, 1.7 rec · 22.2 rec yds per game.
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Falcons | 10 | 21 | 34 |
| New Orleans Saints | 10 | 23 | 34 |
Exact score
The likeliest final scores
from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above
| Score (ATL – NO) | Chance |
|---|---|
| 17–20 | 0.78% |
| 20–23 | 0.73% |
| 27–24 | 0.66% |
| 20–17 | 0.66% |
| 24–27 | 0.65% |
| 23–20 | 0.63% |
No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.
Key numbers
How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14
football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you
| Margin | This game | Last 3 regular seasons |
|---|---|---|
| Decided by exactly 3 | 10.6% | 14.2% |
| Decided by exactly 7 | 7.2% | 8.3% |
| Decided by exactly 10 | 5.8% | 4.2% |
| Decided by exactly 14 | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| Any of the four | 28.2% | 31.1% |
The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.
ATL touchdowns
2.5
NO touchdowns
2.5
ATL field goals
1.7
NO field goals
1.7
Tied after regulation
4.0%
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
51.2%
NO to win
Sportsbook win chance
54.7%
NO to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
-3.5 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
44 vs 48
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured 2026-10-03T16:52:00Z — before kickoff.
Player projections · 21 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Bijan RobinsonMatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -225Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks58.2%
Chris OlaveMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +125Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks40.6%
Juwan JohnsonMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +230Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks31.3%
Alvin KamaraMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +135Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks30.9%
Drake LondonMatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +125Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks29.6%
Devaughn VeleMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +220Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks25.7%
Brian RobinsonMatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +300Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks25.6%
Kendre MillerMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +260Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks23.4%
Noah FantMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETquestionableMarketDraftKingsYes +450Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.3%
Jahan DotsonMatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +500Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks15.1%
Kyle Pitts Sr.MatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +425Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks14.7%
Tyler ShoughMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +295Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks14.5%
Austin HooperMatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +750Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks11.2%
Mason TiptonMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks10.1%
Olamide ZaccheausMatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +700Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10.0%
Spencer RattlerMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks10.0%
Bryce LanceMatchupNO vs ATLStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +450Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks9.8%
Zachariah BranchMatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1100Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks7.0%
Michael Penix Jr.MatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +900Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks5.7%
Jack StrandMatchupATL vs NOStartMon 8:15 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks5.6%
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (9)
- Rushing ATL — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
- Jack Strand ATL — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Zachariah Branch ATL — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- Tua Tagovailoa ATL — Role not yet observed: no game for ATL yet this season — role at ATL not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 16 games for MIA, 2.7 rush yds · 171 pass yds per game.
- Cooper Rush ATL — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Spencer Rattler NO — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Bryce Lance NO — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- Travis Etienne Jr. NO — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Cedric Tillman NO — Role not yet observed: no game for NO yet this season — role at NO not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 13 games for CLE, 1.7 rec · 22.2 rec yds per game.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 20 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 58.2% Bijan Robinson · ATL
- 40.6% Chris Olave · NO
- 31.3% Juwan Johnson · NO
- 30.9% Alvin Kamara · NO
- 29.6% Drake London · ATL
- 25.7% Devaughn Vele · NO
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- c6bd867ab344ec21
- generated
- 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z
- kickoff
- 2026-10-06T00:15Z
- state
- UPCOMING
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- PIT @ CLEThursday, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
- IND @ WSHSunday, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
- NE @ BUFSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- NYJ @ CHISunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- JAX @ CINSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- ARI @ NYGSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- LAR @ PHISunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- GB @ TBSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ BALSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- DAL @ HOUSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- MIA @ MINSunday, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ LVSunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- DEN @ SFSunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- LAC @ SEASunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- DET @ CARSunday, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET