LAC @ SEA
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field.
Regular season · week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles Chargersat
Seattle SeahawksEXPERIMENTAL
Lumen Field
67°F · 3 mph wind from the N · 0% chance of rain · mostly sunny — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.
Simulation story
5 chapters · read from the published artifact› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.
Simulation
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
LAC 16 — 25 SEA
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
LAC 16.8% · SEA 80.7%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.5%
Total points (both teams)
41
8 in 10 simulations landed between 24 and 58
SEA winning margin
+8
a minus means LAC wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -8 and 25
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- LAC
- 16 (17% pregame win chance)
- SEA
- 25 (81% pregame win chance)
Forecast frozen at Oct 3, 2:37 PM ET. It does not change during the game.
Model details
From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated gameLAC 16 — 25 SEAwin chance LAC 16.8% · SEA 80.7%total 41 (24–58)margin +8
LAC
Likely TD scorers
Omarion Hampton 41.3%
Quentin Johnston 22.8%
Ladd McConkey 22.7% · questionable
Passing
Justin Herbert 214 pass yds (116–356)
Rushing — withheld for LAC: the players' modelled shares add up to 128% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled
Receiving leaders
Quentin Johnston 3 rec · 28 yds
Ladd McConkey 3 rec · 34 yds · questionable
Tre' Harris 3 rec · 29 yds
SEA
Likely TD scorers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 67.3%
Cooper Kupp 22.7%
Emanuel Wilson 22.5%
Passing
Sam Darnold 172 pass yds (88–298)
Rushing leaders
Emanuel Wilson 31 rush yds (7–89)
George Holani 10 rush yds (0–47)
Receiving leaders
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 7 rec · 87 yds
Cooper Kupp 2 rec · 21 yds
Rashid Shaheed 2 rec · 17 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (11)
- Rushing LAC — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
- Trey Lance LAC — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Omarion Hampton LAC — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- David Njoku LAC — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Charlie Kolar LAC — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Brenen Thompson LAC — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Theo Wease Jr. LAC — Role not yet observed: no game for LAC yet this season — role at LAC not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for MIA, 2.7 rec · 40.5 rec yds per game.
- George Holani SEA — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- Jadarian Price SEA — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Zach Charbonnet SEA — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Drew Lock SEA — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Range
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4 | 16 | 28 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 13 | 25 | 36 |
Exact score
The likeliest final scores
from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above
| Score (LAC – SEA) | Chance |
|---|---|
| 17–20 | 0.88% |
| 20–17 | 0.80% |
| 10–20 | 0.76% |
| 17–24 | 0.74% |
| 24–27 | 0.69% |
| 10–17 | 0.68% |
No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.
Key numbers
How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14
football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you
| Margin | This game | Last 3 regular seasons |
|---|---|---|
| Decided by exactly 3 | 10.0% | 14.2% |
| Decided by exactly 7 | 7.0% | 8.3% |
| Decided by exactly 10 | 5.5% | 4.2% |
| Decided by exactly 14 | 4.6% | 4.4% |
| Any of the four | 27.0% | 31.1% |
The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.
LAC touchdowns
1.9
SEA touchdowns
2.7
LAC field goals
1.3
SEA field goals
1.8
Tied after regulation
3.6%
Comparison
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
80.7%
SEA to win
Sportsbook win chance
74.6%
SEA to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
+6.1 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
41 vs 42.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured 2026-10-03T18:08:15Z — before kickoff.
Player projections · 18 modelled
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaMatchupSEA vs LACStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -120Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks67.3%
Omarion HamptonMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +110Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks41.3%
Quentin JohnstonMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +370Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks22.8%
Ladd McConkeyMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETquestionableMarketDraftKingsYes +300Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks22.7%
Cooper KuppMatchupSEA vs LACStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +340Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks22.7%
Emanuel WilsonMatchupSEA vs LACStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +130Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks22.5%
George HolaniMatchupSEA vs LACStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +140Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.3%
Keaton MitchellMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +450Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.3%
Rashid ShaheedMatchupSEA vs LACStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +340Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.2%
AJ BarnerMatchupSEA vs LACStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +265Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.2%
Tre' HarrisMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +425Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks17.8%
Trey LanceMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETquestionableMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks14.1%
Oronde GadsdenMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +380Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks13.8%
Kimani VidalMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1400Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks12.2%
Tory HortonMatchupSEA vs LACStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +750Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks11.6%
Justin HerbertMatchupLAC vs SEAStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +550Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks11.2%
Velus Jones Jr.MatchupSEA vs LACStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks8.3%
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (11)
- Rushing LAC — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
- Trey Lance LAC — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Omarion Hampton LAC — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- David Njoku LAC — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
- Charlie Kolar LAC — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Brenen Thompson LAC — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Theo Wease Jr. LAC — Role not yet observed: no game for LAC yet this season — role at LAC not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for MIA, 2.7 rec · 40.5 rec yds per game.
- George Holani SEA — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- Jadarian Price SEA — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Zach Charbonnet SEA — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Drew Lock SEA — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 17 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 67.3% Jaxon Smith-Njigba · SEA
- 41.3% Omarion Hampton · LAC
- 22.8% Quentin Johnston · LAC
- 22.7% Ladd McConkey · LAC · questionable
- 22.7% Cooper Kupp · SEA
- 22.5% Emanuel Wilson · SEA
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
Reading key
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Provenance
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- d16e512d2e239e81
- generated
- 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z
- kickoff
- 2026-10-04T20:25Z
- state
- UPCOMING
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
More
Other games with a simulation
- PIT @ CLEThursday, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
- IND @ WSHSunday, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
- NE @ BUFSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- NYJ @ CHISunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- JAX @ CINSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- ARI @ NYGSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- LAR @ PHISunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- GB @ TBSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ BALSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- DAL @ HOUSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- MIA @ MINSunday, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ LVSunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- DEN @ SFSunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- DET @ CARSunday, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
- ATL @ NOMonday, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET