Today · Oct 3 · 18 events Games under way Settled· Sep 30

Regular season · week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee TitansatBaltimore RavensEXPERIMENTAL

M&T Bank Stadium

Tennessee TitansBaltimore RavensSaved on this device

65°F · 7 mph wind from the E · 75% chance of rain · rain showers — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

TEN @ BAL

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

TEN 17 — 28 BAL

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

TEN 17.2% · BAL 80.6%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.2%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 28 and 62

BAL winning margin

+11

a minus means TEN wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -6 and 28

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

TEN: 17 (17% pregame win chance)
BAL: 28 (81% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 3, 2:37 PM ET. It does not change during the game.

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

TEN 17 — 28 BALwin chance TEN 17.2% · BAL 80.6%total 45 (28–62)margin +11

TEN

Likely TD scorers

Tony Pollard 35.2%

Carnell Tate 24.4%

Wan'Dale Robinson 22.7%

Passing

Cam Ward 178 pass yds (96–298)

Rushing — withheld for TEN: the players' modelled shares add up to 109% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

Carnell Tate 5 rec · 46 yds

Wan'Dale Robinson 4 rec · 36 yds

Tyjae Spears 2 rec · 15 yds · questionable

BAL

Likely TD scorers

Derrick Henry 78.9%

Zay Flowers 39.1% · questionable

Mark Andrews 26.6%

Passing

Lamar Jackson 240 pass yds (126–406)

Rushing — withheld for BAL: the players' modelled shares add up to 108% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

Zay Flowers 5 rec · 72 yds · questionable

Mark Andrews 4 rec · 38 yds

Rashod Bateman 2 rec · 27 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (8)

Rushing TEN — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Daniel Bellinger TEN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Chimere Dike TEN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Michael Carter TEN — Role not yet observed: no game for TEN yet this season — role at TEN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 16 games for ARI, 2.4 rec · 17.5 rec yds · 25.6 rush yds per game.
Rushing BAL — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Derrick Henry BAL — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Tyler Huntley BAL — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Devontez Walker BAL — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Tennessee Titans	5	17	29
Baltimore Ravens	16	28	40

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (TEN – BAL)	Chance
17–20	0.80%
24–27	0.71%
17–27	0.71%
10–27	0.57%
17–24	0.56%
17–30	0.55%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	8.5%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	5.6%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.3%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.7%	4.4%
Any of the four	24.1%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

TEN touchdowns

2.0

BAL touchdowns

3.0

TEN field goals

1.4

BAL field goals

2.1

Tied after regulation

3.0%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

80.6%

BAL to win

Sportsbook win chance

83.8%

BAL to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-3.2 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

45 vs 42.5

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.

Prices captured 2026-10-03T18:08:15Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 22 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Derrick HenryMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -215Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks78.9%
Zay FlowersMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETquestionableMarketDraftKingsYes +135Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks39.1%
Tony PollardMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +225Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks35.2%
Mark AndrewsMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +150Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks26.6%
Carnell TateMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +350Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks24.4%
Wan'Dale RobinsonMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +500Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks22.7%
Rashod BatemanMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +255Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks22.2%
Tyjae SpearsMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETquestionableMarketDraftKingsYes +600Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks21.8%
Lamar JacksonMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +230Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks21.2%
Justice HillMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +450Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks18.2%
Elic AyomanorMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +750Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks17.6%
Ja'Kobi LaneMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks16.7%
Tyler HuntleyMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks14.5%
Cam WardMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +600Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks14.2%
Gunnar HelmMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +550Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks14.0%
Chris MooreMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETquestionableMarketDraftKingsYes +800Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks12.6%
Nicholas SingletonMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +700Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks9.7%
Matthew HibnerMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +850Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks8.8%
Calvin RidleyMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1200Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks8.4%
Devontez WalkerMatchupBAL vs TENStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +750Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks7.8%
Chimere DikeMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1700Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks7.7%
Daniel BellingerMatchupTEN vs BALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1500Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks6.6%

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (8)

Rushing TEN — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Daniel Bellinger TEN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Chimere Dike TEN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Michael Carter TEN — Role not yet observed: no game for TEN yet this season — role at TEN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 16 games for ARI, 2.4 rec · 17.5 rec yds · 25.6 rush yds per game.
Rushing BAL — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Derrick Henry BAL — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Tyler Huntley BAL — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Devontez Walker BAL — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 22 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

78.9% Derrick Henry · BAL
39.1% Zay Flowers · BAL · questionable
35.2% Tony Pollard · TEN
26.6% Mark Andrews · BAL
24.4% Carnell Tate · TEN
22.7% Wan'Dale Robinson · TEN

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: f968b7a4f985cc60
generated: 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z
kickoff: 2026-10-04T17:00Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.