Today · Oct 3 · 18 events Games under way Settled· Sep 30

Regular season · week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET

Dallas CowboysatHouston TexansEXPERIMENTAL

Reliant Stadium

Dallas CowboysHouston TexansSaved on this device

80°F · 10 mph wind from the N · 33% chance of rain · chance showers and thunderstorms — the schedule carries no roof for this stadium, so this is the open-air forecast — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

Skip to the report ↓

› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

DAL @ HOU

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

DAL 23 — 27 HOU

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

DAL 32.9% · HOU 64.1%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.0%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 33 and 67

HOU winning margin

a minus means DAL wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -13 and 21

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

DAL: 23 (33% pregame win chance)
HOU: 27 (64% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 3, 2:37 PM ET. It does not change during the game.

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

DAL 23 — 27 HOUwin chance DAL 32.9% · HOU 64.1%total 50 (33–67)margin +4

DAL

Likely TD scorers

Javonte Williams 56.6%

CeeDee Lamb 40.8%

George Pickens 30.2%

Passing

Dak Prescott 228 pass yds (128–370)

Rushing — withheld for DAL: the players' modelled shares add up to 129% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

CeeDee Lamb 5 rec · 60 yds

George Pickens 4 rec · 48 yds

Ryan Flournoy 3 rec · 27 yds

HOU

Likely TD scorers

David Montgomery 44.3%

Nico Collins 32.4%

Woody Marks 31.8%

Passing

C.J. Stroud 218 pass yds (122–356)

Rushing — withheld for HOU: the players' modelled shares add up to 104% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

Nico Collins 3 rec · 33 yds

Dalton Schultz 3 rec · 27 yds

Xavier Hutchinson 2 rec · 21 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (6)

Rushing DAL — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Rushing HOU — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
David Montgomery HOU — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Davis Mills HOU — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Woody Marks HOU — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Jaylin Noel HOU — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Dallas Cowboys	11	23	35
Houston Texans	15	27	39

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (DAL – HOU)	Chance
24–27	0.69%
27–24	0.58%
20–23	0.58%
17–20	0.55%
27–30	0.55%
23–20	0.52%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	9.6%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	6.6%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.7%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.6%	4.4%
Any of the four	26.4%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

DAL touchdowns

2.6

HOU touchdowns

2.8

DAL field goals

1.8

HOU field goals

1.9

Tied after regulation

3.6%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

64.1%

HOU to win

Sportsbook win chance

59.2%

HOU to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

+4.9 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

50 vs 48.5

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.

Prices captured 2026-10-03T18:08:15Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 22 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Javonte WilliamsMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -125Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks56.6%
David MontgomeryMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -140Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks44.3%
CeeDee LambMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +135Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks40.8%
Nico CollinsMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +150Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks32.4%
Woody MarksMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +195Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks31.8%
George PickensMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +170Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks30.2%
Jake FergusonMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +310Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks26.1%
Ryan FlournoyMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +340Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks23.7%
Tank DellMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks23.0%
Malik DavisMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks22.1%
Xavier HutchinsonMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +370Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks21.1%
Jayden HigginsMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks20.2%
Dalton SchultzMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +230Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.3%
Tyler GoodsonMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +950Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.1%
Foster MoreauMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +800Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks13.6%
Jared WayneMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +800Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks13.3%
Jaylin NoelMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +600Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks11.2%
Dak PrescottMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +700Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10.8%
Kayshon BoutteMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +380Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10.6%
Emari DemercadoMatchupDAL vs HOUStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1300Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10.1%
C.J. StroudMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +500Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks8.0%
Davis MillsMatchupHOU vs DALStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks6.3%

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (6)

Rushing DAL — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Rushing HOU — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
David Montgomery HOU — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Davis Mills HOU — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Woody Marks HOU — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Jaylin Noel HOU — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 22 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

56.6% Javonte Williams · DAL
44.3% David Montgomery · HOU
40.8% CeeDee Lamb · DAL
32.4% Nico Collins · HOU
31.8% Woody Marks · HOU
30.2% George Pickens · DAL

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: e0f466d05f976c5c
generated: 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z
kickoff: 2026-10-04T17:00Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.