Today · Oct 3 · 18 events Games under way Settled· Sep 30

Regular season · week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET

Miami DolphinsatMinnesota VikingsEXPERIMENTAL

U.S. Bank Stadium

Miami DolphinsMinnesota VikingsSaved on this device

Research matchup

Indoors — roofed stadium, no weather to report — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

MIA @ MIN

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

MIA 15 — 24 MIN

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

MIA 18.4% · MIN 79.2%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.4%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 22 and 56

MIN winning margin

a minus means MIA wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -8 and 24

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

MIA: 15 (18% pregame win chance)
MIN: 24 (79% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 3, 2:37 PM ET. It does not change during the game.

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

MIA 15 — 24 MINwin chance MIA 18.4% · MIN 79.2%total 39 (22–56)margin +9

MIA

Likely TD scorers

Malik Washington 24.1%

Ollie Gordon II 21.2%

Malik Willis 19.5%

Passing

Malik Willis 218 pass yds (116–367)

Rushing leaders

Malik Willis 19 rush yds (2–75)

Ollie Gordon II 12 rush yds (1–49)

Receiving leaders

Malik Washington 4 rec · 41 yds

Greg Dulcich 3 rec · 28 yds

Chris Bell 2 rec · 19 yds

MIN

Likely TD scorers

Aaron Jones Sr. 42.8%

Jordan Mason 31.1%

Jordan Addison 28.7%

Passing

Kyler Murray 111 pass yds (52–205)

Rushing — withheld for MIN: the players' modelled shares add up to 128% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

Jordan Addison 3 rec · 40 yds

T.J. Hockenson 3 rec · 30 yds

Aaron Jones Sr. 2 rec · 17 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (10)

De'Von Achane MIA — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Caleb Douglas MIA — Not playing: Listed Out.
Brady Cook MIA — Role not yet observed: no game for MIA yet this season — role at MIA not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 8 games for NYJ, 7.1 rush yds · 121.8 pass yds per game.
Rushing MIN — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Carson Wentz MIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Jauan Jennings MIN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Justin Jefferson MIN — Not playing: Listed Out.
Josh Oliver MIN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Devin Neal MIN — Role not yet observed: no game for MIN yet this season — role at MIN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 10 games for NO, 1.9 rec · 11.4 rec yds · 22.6 rush yds per game.
Max Brosmer MIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Miami Dolphins	3	15	27
Minnesota Vikings	12	24	35

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (MIA – MIN)	Chance
17–20	1.01%
10–24	0.77%
10–13	0.74%
20–17	0.71%
10–20	0.69%
10–27	0.68%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	9.8%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	6.9%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.8%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	5.0%	4.4%
Any of the four	27.5%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

MIA touchdowns

1.7

MIN touchdowns

2.6

MIA field goals

1.2

MIN field goals

1.8

Tied after regulation

3.8%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

79.2%

MIN to win

Sportsbook win chance

82.3%

MIN to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-3.2 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

39 vs 38.5

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.

Prices captured 2026-10-03T18:08:15Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 17 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Aaron Jones Sr.MatchupMIN vs MIAStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -160Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks42.8%
Jordan MasonMatchupMIN vs MIAStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks31.1%
Jordan AddisonMatchupMIN vs MIAStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +115Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks28.7%
Malik WashingtonMatchupMIA vs MINStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +400Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks24.1%
T.J. HockensonMatchupMIN vs MIAStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +155Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks23.9%
Ollie Gordon IIMatchupMIA vs MINStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +290Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks21.2%
Malik WillisMatchupMIA vs MINStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +475Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.5%
Greg DulcichMatchupMIA vs MINStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +650Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks15.1%
Chris BellMatchupMIA vs MINStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +750Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks12.2%
Jaylen WrightMatchupMIA vs MINStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +340Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks11.4%
Jauan JenningsMatchupMIN vs MIAStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +390Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks9.5%
Ryan MillerMatchupMIA vs MINStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +2000Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks9.4%
Demond ClaiborneMatchupMIN vs MIAStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1100Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks8.6%
Carson WentzMatchupMIN vs MIAStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks8.3%
Kevin Coleman Jr.MatchupMIA vs MINStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1100Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks7.6%
Kyler MurrayMatchupMIN vs MIAStartSun 4:05 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +330Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks5.9%

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (10)

De'Von Achane MIA — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Caleb Douglas MIA — Not playing: Listed Out.
Brady Cook MIA — Role not yet observed: no game for MIA yet this season — role at MIA not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 8 games for NYJ, 7.1 rush yds · 121.8 pass yds per game.
Rushing MIN — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Carson Wentz MIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Jauan Jennings MIN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Justin Jefferson MIN — Not playing: Listed Out.
Josh Oliver MIN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Devin Neal MIN — Role not yet observed: no game for MIN yet this season — role at MIN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 10 games for NO, 1.9 rec · 11.4 rec yds · 22.6 rush yds per game.
Max Brosmer MIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 16 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

42.8% Aaron Jones Sr. · MIN
31.1% Jordan Mason · MIN
28.7% Jordan Addison · MIN
24.1% Malik Washington · MIA
23.9% T.J. Hockenson · MIN
21.2% Ollie Gordon II · MIA

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 50ffb0cf6782afa1
generated: 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z
kickoff: 2026-10-04T20:05Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.