Today · Oct 3 · 18 events Games under way Settled· Sep 30

Regular season · week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET

Denver BroncosatSan Francisco 49ersEXPERIMENTAL

Levi's Stadium

Denver BroncosSan Francisco 49ersSaved on this device

89°F · 1 mph wind from the NW · 0% chance of rain · mostly cloudy — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

DEN @ SF

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

DEN 22 — 24 SF

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

DEN 42.3% · SF 54.7%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.0%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 29 and 63

SF winning margin

a minus means DEN wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -15 and 18

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

DEN: 22 (42% pregame win chance)
SF: 24 (55% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 3, 2:37 PM ET. It does not change during the game.

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

DEN 22 — 24 SFwin chance DEN 42.3% · SF 54.7%total 46 (29–63)margin +2

DEN

Likely TD scorers

RJ Harvey 35.0%

J.K. Dobbins 30.7%

Jaylen Waddle 27.4%

Passing

Bo Nix 206 pass yds (113–340)

Rushing — withheld for DEN: the players' modelled shares add up to 108% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

RJ Harvey 3 rec · 27 yds

Jaylen Waddle 3 rec · 37 yds

Courtland Sutton 3 rec · 28 yds

Likely TD scorers

Christian McCaffrey 64.7%

George Kittle 45.4%

Mike Evans 37.8% · questionable

Passing

Brock Purdy 251 pass yds (138–415)

Rushing — withheld for SF: the players' modelled shares add up to 120% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

Christian McCaffrey 3 rec · 30 yds

George Kittle 3 rec · 36 yds

Mike Evans 3 rec · 27 yds · questionable

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (10)

Rushing DEN — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Jarrett Stidham DEN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Tyler Badie DEN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Nate Adkins DEN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Jonah Coleman DEN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN — Left the roster: not on DEN's current roster.
Rushing SF — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Jordan Watkins SF — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Demarcus Robinson SF — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Brandin Cooks SF — Role not yet observed: no game for SF yet this season — role at SF not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for BUF, 1.7 rec · 32 rec yds per game.

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Denver Broncos	10	22	34
San Francisco 49ers	12	24	36

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (DEN – SF)	Chance
17–20	0.69%
20–17	0.68%
27–24	0.67%
24–27	0.63%
20–23	0.57%
20–24	0.56%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	10.2%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	6.6%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.8%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.9%	4.4%
Any of the four	27.5%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

DEN touchdowns

2.5

SF touchdowns

2.6

DEN field goals

1.7

SF field goals

1.8

Tied after regulation

4.0%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

54.7%

SF to win

Sportsbook win chance

57.1%

SF to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-2.4 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

46 vs 48

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.

Prices captured 2026-10-03T18:08:15Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 26 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Christian McCaffreyMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -180Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks64.7%
George KittleMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +160Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks45.4%
Mike EvansMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETquestionableMarketDraftKingsYes +150Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks37.8%
RJ HarveyMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +235Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks35.0%
Brandon AiyukMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks34.8%
J.K. DobbinsMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +115Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks30.7%
Jaylen WaddleMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +190Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks27.4%
Deebo Samuel Sr.MatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +155Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks26.2%
Ricky PearsallMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks25.9%
Courtland SuttonMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +205Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks23.4%
Kaelon BlackMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +300Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks23.3%
Bo NixMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +360Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks17.6%
Pat BryantMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +350Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks16.2%
Brock PurdyMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +310Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks14.7%
Evan EngramMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +475Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks14.3%
Kyle JuszczykMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +650Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks13.5%
Jordan JamesMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks13.0%
Marvin Mims Jr.MatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +950Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks11.4%
Jake TongesMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks11.2%
Nate AdkinsMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1200Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10.7%
Troy FranklinMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +950Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10.6%
Jordan WatkinsMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +700Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10.2%
Tyler BadieMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1000Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks10.2%
Mac JonesMatchupSF vs DENStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks7.6%
Jarrett StidhamMatchupDEN vs SFStartSun 4:25 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks7.2%

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (10)

Rushing DEN — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Jarrett Stidham DEN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Tyler Badie DEN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Nate Adkins DEN — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Jonah Coleman DEN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN — Left the roster: not on DEN's current roster.
Rushing SF — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Jordan Watkins SF — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Demarcus Robinson SF — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Brandin Cooks SF — Role not yet observed: no game for SF yet this season — role at SF not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for BUF, 1.7 rec · 32 rec yds per game.

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 25 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

64.7% Christian McCaffrey · SF
45.4% George Kittle · SF
37.8% Mike Evans · SF · questionable
35.0% RJ Harvey · DEN
34.8% Brandon Aiyuk · SF
30.7% J.K. Dobbins · DEN

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 484cdedb55297d63
generated: 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z
kickoff: 2026-10-04T20:25Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.