Today · Oct 3 · 18 events Games under way Settled· Sep 30

Regular season · week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET

Indianapolis ColtsatWashington CommandersEXPERIMENTAL

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWashington CommandersSaved on this device

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

IND @ WSH

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

IND 25 — 26 WSH

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

IND 48.7% · WSH 48.3%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.0%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 34 and 68

WSH winning margin

a minus means IND wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -17 and 16

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

IND: 25 (49% pregame win chance)
WSH: 26 (48% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 3, 2:37 PM ET. It does not change during the game.

Model details

From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

IND 25 — 26 WSHwin chance IND 48.7% · WSH 48.3%total 51 (34–68)margin 0

IND

Likely TD scorers

Jonathan Taylor 71.7%

Tyler Warren 32.0%

Josh Downs 24.9%

Passing

Daniel Jones 206 pass yds (113–338)

Rushing — withheld for IND: the players' modelled shares add up to 118% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

Tyler Warren 5 rec · 37 yds

Josh Downs 4 rec · 46 yds

Jonathan Taylor 2 rec · 19 yds

WSH

Likely TD scorers

Stefon Diggs 40.1%

Terry McLaurin 34.4% · questionable

Austin Ekeler 32.8%

Passing

Marcus Mariota 151 pass yds (76–264)

Rushing — withheld for WSH: the players' modelled shares add up to 110% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

Stefon Diggs 3 rec · 34 yds

Terry McLaurin 3 rec · 39 yds · questionable

Antonio Williams 2 rec · 17 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (10)

Rushing IND — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Anthony Richardson IND — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Keenan Allen IND — Not playing: Listed Out.
Alec Pierce IND — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Darius Slayton IND — Role not yet observed: no game for IND yet this season — role at IND not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 14 games for NYG, 2.6 rec · 38.4 rec yds per game.
Riley Leonard IND — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Rushing WSH — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Jayden Daniels WSH — Not playing: Listed Out.
Rachaad White WSH — Not playing: Listed Out.
Van Jefferson WSH — Role not yet observed: no game for WSH yet this season — role at WSH not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 17 games for TEN, 1.9 rec · 26.6 rec yds per game.

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Indianapolis Colts	14	25	38
Washington Commanders	13	26	37

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (IND – WSH)	Chance
27–24	0.71%
24–27	0.69%
23–20	0.64%
20–17	0.64%
27–30	0.56%
17–20	0.53%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	10.3%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	6.4%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.5%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.7%	4.4%
Any of the four	26.9%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

IND touchdowns

2.8

WSH touchdowns

2.7

IND field goals

1.9

WSH field goals

1.9

Tied after regulation

3.7%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

48.3%

WSH to win

Sportsbook win chance

35.5%

WSH to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

+12.8 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

51 vs 46.5

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.

Prices captured 2026-10-03T18:08:15Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 20 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Jonathan TaylorMatchupIND vs WSHStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -330Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks71.7%
Stefon DiggsMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +185Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks40.1%
Terry McLaurinMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETquestionableMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks34.4%
Austin EkelerMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +700Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks32.8%
Jacory Croskey-MerrittMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -105Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks32.6%
Tyler WarrenMatchupIND vs WSHStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +160Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks32.0%
Josh DownsMatchupIND vs WSHStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +145Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks24.9%
Antonio WilliamsMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +450Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.5%
Jeremy McNicholsMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks17.9%
D.J. MontgomeryMatchupIND vs WSHStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks17.1%
Chig OkonkwoMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +350Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks15.4%
Anthony RichardsonMatchupIND vs WSHStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks14.7%
Treylon BurksMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +600Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks14.4%
Dyami BrownMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +600Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks13.0%
Kaytron AllenMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +425Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks9.7%
DJ GiddensMatchupIND vs WSHStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +2000Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks9.7%
Daniel JonesMatchupIND vs WSHStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +390Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks9.1%
Marcus MariotaMatchupWSH vs INDStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +400Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks8.2%
Seth McGowanMatchupIND vs WSHStartSun 9:30 AM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +900Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks8.1%

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (10)

Rushing IND — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Anthony Richardson IND — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Keenan Allen IND — Not playing: Listed Out.
Alec Pierce IND — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Darius Slayton IND — Role not yet observed: no game for IND yet this season — role at IND not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 14 games for NYG, 2.6 rec · 38.4 rec yds per game.
Riley Leonard IND — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Rushing WSH — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Jayden Daniels WSH — Not playing: Listed Out.
Rachaad White WSH — Not playing: Listed Out.
Van Jefferson WSH — Role not yet observed: no game for WSH yet this season — role at WSH not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 17 games for TEN, 1.9 rec · 26.6 rec yds per game.

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 19 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

71.7% Jonathan Taylor · IND
40.1% Stefon Diggs · WSH
34.4% Terry McLaurin · WSH · questionable
32.8% Austin Ekeler · WSH
32.6% Jacory Croskey-Merritt · WSH
32.0% Tyler Warren · IND

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 7a9c5dfce91ad44f
generated: 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z
kickoff: 2026-10-04T13:30Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.