Regular season · week 4 · Thursday, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · started
Pittsburgh Steelersat
Cleveland BrownsEXPERIMENTAL
Huntington Bank Field
This game has kicked off. Everything below is exactly what was published before kickoff and has not been changed since — that is the point of keeping it.
Live game state
Live betaThe left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.
Live now
Checking the live feed…
Pregame GameTime · frozen
- PIT
- 20 (54% pregame win chance)
- CLE
- 19 (43% pregame win chance)
Forecast frozen at Oct 1, 6:30 PM ET. It does not change during the game.
No simulation story for this event: No NFL event with a published simulation for this date.
What our model expects
10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1
Projected score
PIT 20 — 19 CLE
the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final
Win chance
PIT 54.4% · CLE 42.5%
how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 3.1%
Total points (both teams)
39
8 in 10 simulations landed between 22 and 56
CLE winning margin
-2
a minus means PIT wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -18 and 15
Model details
From the margin-of-victory Elo win head, published exactly as evaluated on held-out 2006–2021 — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-01T22:30:25Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.
Projected scorecard
expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game PIT
Likely TD scorers
Jaylen Warren 35.8%
DK Metcalf 27.7%
Roman Wilson 20.6%
Passing
Aaron Rodgers 204 pass yds (113–334)
Rushing leaders
Jaylen Warren 59 rush yds (15–151)
Aaron Rodgers 2 rush yds (0–26)
Receiving leaders
DK Metcalf 3 rec · 34 yds
Roman Wilson 3 rec · 25 yds
Jaylen Warren 2 rec · 20 yds
CLE
Likely TD scorers
Harold Fannin Jr. 35.0%
Quinshon Judkins 32.5%
KC Concepcion 29.0%
Passing
Deshaun Watson 203 pass yds (111–338)
Rushing leaders
Quinshon Judkins 42 rush yds (11–106)
Deshaun Watson 25 rush yds (4–81)
Receiving leaders
Harold Fannin Jr. 4 rec · 39 yds
KC Concepcion 4 rec · 35 yds
Denzel Boston 3 rec · 35 yds
pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (5)
- Rico Dowdle PIT — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Isaiah Hodgins PIT — Role not yet observed: no game for PIT yet this season — role at PIT not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for NYG, 1.7 rec · 19.2 rec yds per game.
- Dylan Sampson CLE — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- Shedeur Sanders CLE — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Dillon Gabriel CLE — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
How wide the outcomes are
the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score
| Team | Low (10th) | Projected | High (90th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 9 | 20 | 32 |
| Cleveland Browns | 7 | 19 | 31 |
Us versus the sportsbooks
two independent reads, shown side by side
Our win chance
42.5%
CLE to win
Sportsbook win chance
42.6%
CLE to win, read from 9 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed
Difference
0 pp
ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation
Total points: ours vs sportsbooks
39 vs 37.5
our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line
The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.
Prices captured 2026-10-01T19:45:24Z — before kickoff.
The player board
Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.
Every receiving family for one player on one row, ranked by expected receptions.
| Player | Team | Availability | Receptions (10th–90th) | Rec yards (10th–90th) | TD chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE | 4 (1–8) | 39 (10–86) | 35.0% | |
| KC Concepcion | CLE | 4 (1–7) | 35 (8–78) | 29.0% | |
| Denzel Boston | CLE | 3 (1–6) | 35 (4–90) | 28.2% | |
| DK Metcalf | PIT | 3 (1–7) | 34 (6–81) | 27.7% | |
| Roman Wilson | PIT | 3 (1–5) | 25 (1–67) | 20.6% | |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT | 2 (0–5) | 20 (0–59) | 35.8% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE | 2 (0–5) | 15 (0–48) | 32.5% | |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT | 2 (0–5) | 23 (0–62) | 19.2% | |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE | 2 (0–4) | 16 (0–51) | 17.6% | |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT | 2 (0–4) | 18 (0–57) | 16.0% | |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE | 2 (0–5) | 20 (0–58) | 13.3% | |
| Germie Bernard | PIT | 2 (0–4) | 15 (0–51) | 11.0% | |
| Darnell Washington | PIT | 1 (0–4) | 15 (0–52) | 11.1% |
Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (5)
- Rico Dowdle PIT — Not playing: Listed Out.
- Isaiah Hodgins PIT — Role not yet observed: no game for PIT yet this season — role at PIT not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for NYG, 1.7 rec · 19.2 rec yds per game.
- Dylan Sampson CLE — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
- Shedeur Sanders CLE — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
- Dillon Gabriel CLE — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)
- pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
- First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities
Scoring outlooktop 6 of 18 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab
- 35.8% Jaylen Warren · PIT
- 35.0% Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE
- 32.5% Quinshon Judkins · CLE
- 29.0% KC Concepcion · CLE
- 28.2% Denzel Boston · CLE
- 27.7% DK Metcalf · PIT
Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.
What these numbers mean
- Projected score
- The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
- Win chance
- How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
- 80% range
- Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
- pp (percentage points)
- The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
- Experimental
- Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.
Where this came from
- model
- nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
- simulations
- 10,000
- input hash
- 83755ca2b744df92
- generated
- 2026-10-01T22:30:25Z
- kickoff
- 2026-10-02T00:15Z
- state
- SETTLED
Player-family model provenance (4 published)
- Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
- Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
- Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).
Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.
Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.
Other games with a simulation
- IND @ WSHSunday, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
- NE @ BUFSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- NYJ @ CHISunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- JAX @ CINSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- ARI @ NYGSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- LAR @ PHISunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- GB @ TBSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- TEN @ BALSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- DAL @ HOUSunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
- MIA @ MINSunday, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
- KC @ LVSunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- DEN @ SFSunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- LAC @ SEASunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
- DET @ CARSunday, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
- ATL @ NOMonday, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET