Today · Oct 3 · 18 events Games under way Settled· Sep 30

Regular season · week 4 · Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET

Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati BengalsEXPERIMENTAL

Paycor Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati BengalsSaved on this device

69°F · 2 mph wind from the N · 1% chance of rain · mostly sunny — not used by the model; no weather term enters the numbers below.

Simulation story

5 chapters · read from the published artifact

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› Loading the matchup model› Reading the outcome distribution from 10,000 simulated games› Preparing the score scenariosPress Play to step through what the model expects, chapter by chapter, or read the report below.

JAX @ CIN

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium.

Simulation

What our model expects

10,000 simulated games · model nfl-regular-season-public-v1

Projected score

JAX 25 — 24 CIN

the middle of our simulated outcomes, not a call on the exact final

Win chance

JAX 50.4% · CIN 46.9%

how often each side won in 10,000 simulations · ties 2.7%

Total points (both teams)

8 in 10 simulations landed between 32 and 66

CIN winning margin

-1

a minus means JAX wins by that much · 8 in 10 between -19 and 17

Live game state

Live beta

The left side is what the live source reports right now. The right side is the GameTime forecast made before kickoff — it is frozen and does not change while the game is played.

Live now

Checking the live feed…

Pregame GameTime · frozen

JAX: 25 (50% pregame win chance)
CIN: 24 (47% pregame win chance)

Forecast frozen at Oct 3, 2:37 PM ET. It does not change during the game.

Model details

From the replay-validated Elo-logistic head, published exactly as evaluated on a held-out 2025 season — no shrink toward 50% is applied, and no claim to out-predict the sportsbook market is made. Generated 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z under model nfl-regular-season-public-v1 and frozen pre-kickoff; every forecast is settled against the official result.

Projected scorecard

expected statistical summaries · not one simulated game

JAX 25 — 24 CINwin chance JAX 50.4% · CIN 46.9%total 49 (32–66)margin -1

JAX

Likely TD scorers

Parker Washington 45.7%

Bhayshul Tuten 44.1%

Jakobi Meyers 31.6%

Passing

Trevor Lawrence 219 pass yds (119–366)

Rushing leaders

Bhayshul Tuten 41 rush yds (9–113)

Chris Rodriguez Jr. 18 rush yds (2–66)

Receiving leaders

Parker Washington 5 rec · 60 yds

Jakobi Meyers 3 rec · 34 yds

Brenton Strange 3 rec · 25 yds

CIN

Likely TD scorers

Chase Brown 48.2%

Ja'Marr Chase 46.5%

Tee Higgins 36.6%

Passing

Joe Burrow 231 pass yds (131–371)

Rushing — withheld for CIN: the players' modelled shares add up to 103% of the team's carries, more than exists — shown again once the shares are reconciled

Receiving leaders

Ja'Marr Chase 5 rec · 50 yds

Tee Higgins 4 rec · 44 yds

Chase Brown 2 rec · 17 yds

pass interceptions · First/last/2+ touchdown — withheld, with the exact bar each failed

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)

Bhayshul Tuten JAX — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Josh Cameron JAX — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Quinn Ewers JAX — Role not yet observed: no game for JAX yet this season — role at JAX not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 7 games for MIA, 0.1 rec · -0.9 rec yds · 2.6 rush yds · 127.9 pass yds per game.
Rushing CIN — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Joe Flacco CIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Andrei Iosivas CIN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Josh Johnson CIN — Role not yet observed: no game for CIN yet this season — role at CIN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for WSH, 8.3 rush yds · 108.5 pass yds per game.

Range

How wide the outcomes are

the 10th to 90th percentile of each team's simulated score

Team	Low (10th)	Projected	High (90th)
Jacksonville Jaguars	12	25	37
Cincinnati Bengals	11	24	36

Exact score

The likeliest final scores

from an event-based simulation of touchdowns and field goals, solved onto the median margin and total above

Score (JAX – CIN)	Chance
24–27	0.70%
23–20	0.69%
20–17	0.65%
27–24	0.64%
20–23	0.63%
17–20	0.61%

No single scoreline is likely — these are the most common of hundreds. The projected score above is derived from the medians and answers a different question: the middle of the distribution, not its most common point.

Key numbers

How often it lands on 3, 7, 10 or 14

football's margins pile up on those four — this is the one thing a normal-draw model cannot show you

Margin	This game	Last 3 regular seasons
Decided by exactly 3	10.2%	14.2%
Decided by exactly 7	6.4%	8.3%
Decided by exactly 10	5.4%	4.2%
Decided by exactly 14	4.7%	4.4%
Any of the four	26.7%	31.1%

The right-hand column is what actually happened across 816 regular-season games (2023, 2024, 2025) — the same finals this engine was fitted to. It gets the shape right, with 3 the most common margin by a distance, and it is not calibrated to the number: it puts less weight on 3 and more on 10 than those seasons did.

JAX touchdowns

2.7

CIN touchdowns

2.6

JAX field goals

1.8

CIN field goals

1.8

Tied after regulation

3.6%

Comparison

Us versus the sportsbooks

two independent reads, shown side by side

Our win chance

46.9%

CIN to win

Sportsbook win chance

56.8%

CIN to win, read from 8 sportsbooks' odds with their built-in margin removed

Difference

-9.9 pp

ours minus the sportsbooks', in percentage points — not a recommendation

Total points: ours vs sportsbooks

49 vs 51.5

our projected total against the sportsbooks' over/under line

The sportsbook numbers are the books' own, shown for context. A difference is a difference — this model is not validated to out-predict the sportsbook market.

Prices captured 2026-10-03T18:08:15Z — before kickoff.

Player projections · 21 modelled

The player board

Every modelled player, with his availability. Players listed out carry no volume projection.

Chase BrownMatchupCIN vs JAXStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -155Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks48.2%
Ja'Marr ChaseMatchupCIN vs JAXStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes -115Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks46.5%
Parker WashingtonMatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +135Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks45.7%
Bhayshul TutenMatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +100Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks44.1%
Tee HigginsMatchupCIN vs JAXStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +135Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks36.6%
Jakobi MeyersMatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +240Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks31.6%
Brenton StrangeMatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +265Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks24.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.MatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +300Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks23.8%
Brian Thomas Jr.MatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +340Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks22.4%
Samaje PerineMatchupCIN vs JAXStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +400Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks19.9%
Mike GesickiMatchupCIN vs JAXStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +320Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks18.9%
Ameer AbdullahMatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +1000Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks15.6%
Josh CameronMatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +700Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks13.0%
Trevor LawrenceMatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +340Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks12.2%
Dohnte MeyersMatchupCIN vs JAXStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +450Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks12.2%
Nick MullensMatchupJAX vs CINStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks8.3%
Joe BurrowMatchupCIN vs JAXStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketDraftKingsYes +900Captured Sat 12:52 PM ETModelGameTimePicks6.4%
Joe FlaccoMatchupCIN vs JAXStartSun 1:00 PM ETMarketNot offeredModelGameTimePicks4.5%

Model detail — who this forecast leaves out (7)

Bhayshul Tuten JAX — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Josh Cameron JAX — No receiving projection: the receiving model's usage pool does not include his 2026 role here yet.
Quinn Ewers JAX — Role not yet observed: no game for JAX yet this season — role at JAX not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 7 games for MIA, 0.1 rec · -0.9 rec yds · 2.6 rush yds · 127.9 pass yds per game.
Rushing CIN — Withheld for this game: the players' modelled shares add up to more of the team's opportunity than exists; these numbers are not renormalised to fit.
Joe Flacco CIN — Not this team's passer: backup quarterback — the passing projection belongs to the depth chart's starter.
Andrei Iosivas CIN — Not playing: Listed Injured Reserve.
Josh Johnson CIN — Role not yet observed: no game for CIN yet this season — role at CIN not yet observed.Historical prior, not used in these numbers: 6 games for WSH, 8.3 rush yds · 108.5 pass yds per game.

Families not shown, and the exact bar each failed (2)

pass interceptions: RESEARCH_ONLY
First/last/2+ touchdown: DISABLED — no ordering model and no calibration receipt of their own; never derived from anytime probabilities

Scoring outlooktop 6 of 18 by TD chance · full list in the board’s TD tab

48.2% Chase Brown · CIN
46.5% Ja'Marr Chase · CIN
45.7% Parker Washington · JAX
44.1% Bhayshul Tuten · JAX
36.6% Tee Higgins · CIN
31.6% Jakobi Meyers · JAX

Anytime-scorer probability means scoring a touchdown — never throwing one. Void if the player does not play; questionable players carry their state above.

Reading key

What these numbers mean

Projected score: The middle outcome across every simulated game — not a prediction of the exact final.
Win chance: How often each side won across the simulations, after the calibration described above.
80% range: Eight in ten simulated games landed inside this band. Real games land outside it too.
pp (percentage points): The plain difference between two percentages. A gap is a difference, not an advantage.
Experimental: Published while its out-of-sample record is still accumulating. Every forecast is frozen before kickoff and graded against the official result.

Provenance

Where this came from

model: nfl-regular-season-public-v1 v2
simulations: 10,000
input hash: 6766ed6bfc0a4735
generated: 2026-10-03T18:37:22Z
kickoff: 2026-10-04T17:00Z
state: UPCOMING

Player-family model provenance (4 published)

Rushing yards: Share-level model: cleared every bar when re-tested on 2014–2021 (14,502 player-games) — a second look at seasons examined once before, not a blind test. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (216 graded player-games so far).
Receiving yards: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Receptions: props-v1 evaluation: n=3575, all promotion bars pass
Anytime touchdown: Opportunity touchdown model: cleared every bar on a blind test of 2014–2021 (35,128 player-games never used to build it). Probabilities condition on playing — a player who does not play settles void. Each week's forecast is frozen before the first kickoff and graded; its blind 2026 record is still accumulating (524 graded player-games so far).

Our win chances come from a team rating that weights how decisively teams win. Tested on 4,281 past games it had never seen (2006–2021), it scored 0.629 on log loss (lower is better) — better than our previous rating's 0.642 and a coin flip's 0.693, but short of the sportsbooks' own odds at 0.610. It has NOT been shown to beat the sportsbook market. Where our win and margin ratings disagree on the favourite, the previous rating is used for that game. The 2026 season evaluation still runs under bars frozen in August, so every forecast stays experimental. These ratings are built from results, not from who is playing: they do not know that a starting quarterback has been ruled out. Our player projections do remove players who cannot play; the team win chance beside them does not. We tested whether adding that would help, using perfect hindsight about whether each team's main quarterback actually played — on 855 games from 2023 to 2025 it improved the win rating on average but was WORSE in one of the three seasons, so it did not clear the bar we hold these ratings to and we left the rating alone.

Educational and paper-only — not betting advice.