Tuesday, October 6
Game by game
Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.
MLB · 3–1 game calls
Full MLB record →Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →
Not in this record, but still graded below: 2 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.
LAD @ ATL
Final · LAD 3 – 1 ATLOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 15–15 · 2 void →Call Pick Outcome Winner LAD (away) Win Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 6 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) ATL +1.5 Loss MIL @ SD
Final · MIL 3 – 4 SDOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 18–23 →Call Pick Outcome Winner SD (home) Win Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7 Push Run line (simulated ±1.5) MIL +1.5 Win
Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff
Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.
No qualifying board was frozen for Tuesday, October 6.
- MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
- Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
- UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.
Product cards settled this day
Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.
Bank Builder · lane A
LostLeg Official Grade San Diego Padres to win · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres 3-4 Won Over 6 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves 4 Lost Bank Builder · lane B
LostLeg Official Grade Over 7 · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres 7 Push Atlanta Braves to win · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves 3-1 Lost Moonshot · lane A
WonLeg Official Grade Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves 3-1 Won Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres 3-4 Won Moonshot · lane B
No card placedNo card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Suggested Parlays published this day
The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.
Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
High Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Longshot
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks
Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.
- MLBJake CronenworthOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.3pp edgeactual 4
- MLBMookie BettsOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+20.2pp edgeactual 2
- MLBNick PivettaOver 3.5 Strikeouts+18.9pp edgeactual 4
- MLBAndy PagesOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.4pp edgeactual 3
- MLBWill SmithOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.2pp edgeactual 1
- MLBDustin HarrisOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+24.5pp edgeactual 0
- MLBTommy EdmanOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+15.7pp edgeactual 0
- MLBJake BauersOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+14.9pp edgeactual 0
- MLBMax MuncyOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+14.3pp edgeactual 0
- MLBFernando Tatis Jr.Over 1.5 Total Bases+11.5pp edgeactual 0
LAD @ ATL15–1530 dec2 void50.0%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.25 | 2 | +10.2% | High | Win |
| Michael Harris II | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.21 | 1 | +9.9% | High | Win |
| Drake Baldwin | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.32 | 0 | +15.9% | High | Loss |
| Matt Olson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.98 | 1 | +8.2% | High | Win |
| Shohei Ohtani | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.88 | 0 | +2.5% | Low | Loss |
| Freddie Freeman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 1 | +5.4% | High | Win |
| Kyle Tucker | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.01 | 1 | +10.6% | High | Win |
| Will Smith | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | 1 | +14.2% | High | Win |
| Andy Pages | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | 2 | +15.0% | High | Win |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.65 | 1 | +1.4% | Low | Win |
| Tommy Edman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.78 | 0 | +5.9% | High | Loss |
| Max Muncy | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 0 | +11.0% | High | Loss |
| Austin Riley | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.69 | 0 | +4.8% | Medium | Loss |
| Sean Murphy | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.50 | — | -3.0% | Low | Void |
| Mike Yastrzemski | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.5% | Low | Loss |
| Michael Harris II | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.30 | 1 | +16.6% | High | Loss |
| Mookie Betts | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.57 | 2 | +20.2% | Low | Win |
| Drake Baldwin | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 1 | +20.8% | Low | Loss |
| Shohei Ohtani | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 0 | +7.8% | High | Loss |
| Matt Olson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.13 | 1 | +17.1% | High | Loss |
| Freddie Freeman | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.72 | 3 | +10.9% | High | Win |
| Kyle Tucker | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.08 | 1 | +13.3% | High | Win |
| Will Smith | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.09 | 1 | +16.2% | High | Win |
| Andy Pages | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.33 | 3 | +16.4% | High | Win |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.34 | 1 | +7.3% | High | Win |
| Tommy Edman | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.90 | 0 | +15.7% | High | Loss |
| Max Muncy | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.85 | 0 | +14.3% | High | Loss |
| Austin Riley | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.52 | 0 | +13.2% | High | Loss |
| Sean Murphy | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | — | +4.9% | Medium | Void |
| Mike Yastrzemski | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.33 | 0 | +12.9% | High | Loss |
| Chris Sale | Strikeouts | Over 7.5 | 7.55 | 7 | +3.5% | Medium | Loss |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 | 6.78 | 10 | +5.8% | High | Win |
MIL @ SD18–2341 dec43.9%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 5.30 | 4 | +23.5% | Low | Loss |
| Dustin May | Strikeouts | Over 2.5 | 4.11 | 3 | +13.8% | High | Win |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Hits | Over 1.5 | 1.17 | 0 | +2.6% | Medium | Loss |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.15 | 0 | +3.1% | Medium | Loss |
| Manny Machado | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.71 | 1 | +3.6% | Medium | Loss |
| Ty France | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.11 | 0 | +5.0% | Medium | Loss |
| William Contreras | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 3 | +0.0% | Low | Win |
| Jackson Merrill | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 1 | +3.3% | Medium | Win |
| Brice Turang | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 1 | +10.1% | High | Win |
| Sal Frelick | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.56 | 1 | +4.8% | Medium | Loss |
| Xander Bogaerts | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 1 | +6.1% | High | Win |
| Dustin Harris | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 0 | +13.6% | High | Loss |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 2 | +10.4% | High | Win |
| Jake Bauers | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.84 | 0 | +6.2% | High | Loss |
| Christian Yelich | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 2 | +2.7% | Medium | Win |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 0 | +1.1% | Low | Loss |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 2 | +13.6% | High | Win |
| Ethan Salas | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.81 | 0 | +13.0% | High | Loss |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 1 | +8.3% | High | Loss |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 1 | +14.7% | High | Loss |
| Manny Machado | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.80 | 2 | +3.5% | Medium | Win |
| Ty France | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.22 | 0 | +10.7% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.12 | 6 | +9.8% | High | Win |
| Jackson Merrill | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.20 | 2 | +12.4% | High | Win |
| Brice Turang | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 1 | +21.1% | Low | Loss |
| Xander Bogaerts | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 2 | +15.2% | High | Win |
| Sal Frelick | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.06 | 1 | -0.6% | Low | Win |
| Jake Bauers | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.96 | 0 | +14.9% | High | Loss |
| Dustin Harris | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.29 | 0 | +24.5% | Low | Loss |
| Christian Yelich | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.79 | 3 | +10.5% | High | Win |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.71 | 3 | +10.7% | High | Win |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.50 | 0 | +5.2% | High | Loss |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.30 | 4 | +21.3% | Low | Win |
| Ethan Salas | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.71 | 0 | +16.8% | High | Loss |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 0 | +11.5% | High | Loss |
| Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 0 | +10.6% | High | Loss |
| Manny Machado | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.36 | 1 | +4.0% | Medium | Loss |
| Ty France | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 0 | +11.9% | High | Loss |
| Jackson Merrill | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 1 | +12.3% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 6 | +8.5% | High | Win |
| Nick Pivetta | Strikeouts | Over 3.5 | 5.30 | 4 | +18.9% | High | Win |