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MLB model board · 2026-10-06

2 MLB games · 73 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 6, 5:27 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
43
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
11
model vs market · context
Small gap
7
6 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
6
no projection emitted
Strikeouts3 gap ≥ 5 pp·5 totalHits17 gap ≥ 5 pp·34 totalHits + Runs + RBIs23 gap ≥ 5 pp·34 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Will Smith
Will SmithLAD vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+16.2%
proj 2.09-185 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinATL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+15.9%
proj 1.32-185 · draftkings
Nick Pivetta
Nick PivettaSD vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
StrikeoutsOver 3.5+18.9%
proj 5.3-164 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy PagesLAD vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+16.4%
proj 2.33-166 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle TuckerLAD vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+13.3%
proj 2.08-185 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs SD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.1%
proj 1.17-193 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie BettsLAD vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.2%
proj 1.25-191 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IIATL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+9.9%
proj 1.21-189 · draftkings
Filters · 73 of 73 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Truist Park38 leansFinal · graded

LAD@ATL

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

first pitch
6:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
probable · awayYoshinobu Yamamoto
LAD
Chris Sale
probable · homeChris Sale
ATL
Strikeouts
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
LADvsATLPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER6.5
Projection6.78
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.5 K across 28 starts
+103 · draftkings
Chris Sale
Chris Sale
ATLvsLADPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER7.5
Projection7.55
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 7.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.4 K across 27 starts
+111 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+17.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 162 games
+120 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+16.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.19 across 155 games
+111 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.33
Edge+16.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 133 games
-166 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.09
Edge+16.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 73 games
-185 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+15.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 138 games
-185 · draftkings
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.9
Edge+15.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 83 games
-141 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+15%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 133 games
-139 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.85
Edge+14.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 148 games
-140 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+14.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-153 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection2.08
Edge+13.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 153 games
-185 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+13.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 159 games
-138 · draftkings
Mike Yastrzemski
Mike Yastrzemski
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+12.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.25 across 138 games
-131 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 148 games
-119 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 153 games
+128 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 153 games
-154 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+10.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 123 games
-191 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 155 games
-189 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 162 games
-172 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.33 across 135 games
+118 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.34
Edge+7.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 162 games
-148 · draftkings
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 83 games
-123 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 153 games
-169 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 33 games
-136 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 159 games
-117 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinModel anomaly
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.46
Edge+20.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 138 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+112 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie BettsModel anomaly
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.57
Edge+20.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 123 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+111 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge−3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 33 games
-113 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 135 games
-172 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 162 games
-125 · draftkings
Mike Yastrzemski
Mike Yastrzemski
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.54
Edge−0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 138 games
-110 · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
LAD @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
LAD @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
LAD @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
LAD @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
LAD @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
LAD @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Petco Park35 leansFinal · graded

MIL@SD

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

first pitch
9:30 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Dustin May
probable · awayDustin May
MIL
Nick Pivetta
probable · homeNick Pivetta
SD
Strikeouts
Nick Pivetta
Nick Pivetta
SDvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER3.5
Projection5.3
Edge+18.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.2 K across 8 starts
-164 · draftkings
Dustin May
Dustin May
MILvsSDPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER2.5
Projection4.11
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 4.7 K across 31 starts
-158 · draftkings
Nick Pivetta
Nick PivettaModel anomaly
SDvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER4.5
Projection5.3
Edge+23.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.2 K across 8 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+140 · fanduel
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Ethan Salas
Ethan Salas
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+16.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.31 across 16 games
-131 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+15.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 153 games
+119 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.96
Edge+15%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
+130 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+14.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-115 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 108 games
-127 · draftkings
Dustin Harris
Dustin Harris
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 43 games
-152 · draftkings
Ethan Salas
Ethan Salas
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.81
Edge+13%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 16 games
-105 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.2
Edge+12.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 157 games
-101 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.71
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
-175 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.22
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 128 games
-109 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.79
Edge+10.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
-180 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-145 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-193 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+9.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
-103 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 159 games
-138 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-145 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 153 games
-175 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.5
Edge+5.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
-173 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 128 games
-218 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+136 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 158 games
+170 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+3.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 158 games
-110 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-207 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+3.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-235 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-139 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.17
Edge+2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 159 games
+189 · draftkings
Dustin Harris
Dustin HarrisModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.29
Edge+24.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 43 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+138 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake CronenworthModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+21.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 108 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-172 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangModel anomaly
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+21.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+110 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-138 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge−0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-161 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge0%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-215 · draftkings
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