Wednesday, October 7
Game by game
Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.
MLB · 5–3 game calls
Full MLB record →Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →
Not in this record, but still graded below: 4 calls paused on the site or not shown before the game.
CLE @ CWS
Final · CLE 9 – 3 CWSOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 20–13 →Call Pick Outcome Winner CWS (home) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 8 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) CLE +1.5 Win LAD @ ATL
Final · LAD 4 – 1 ATLOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 9–26 →Call Pick Outcome Winner LAD (away) Win Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7.5 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) LAD -1.5 Win TB @ NYY
Final · TB 4 – 3 NYYOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 19–14 · 3 void →Call Pick Outcome Winner NYY (home) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 7 Push Run line (simulated ±1.5) TB +1.5 Win MIL @ SD
Final · MIL 3 – 1 SDOfficial Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 16–24 →Call Pick Outcome Winner SD (home) Loss Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick OVER 7.5 Loss Run line (simulated ±1.5) MIL +1.5 Win
Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff
Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.
No qualifying board was frozen for Wednesday, October 7.
- MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
- Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
- UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.
Product cards settled this day
Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.
Bank Builder · lane A
LostLeg Official Grade Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres 3-1 Won Chicago White Sox +1.5 · Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox 9-3 Lost Bank Builder · lane B
WonLeg Official Grade Los Angeles Dodgers to win · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves 4-1 Won Over 7 · Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees 7 Push Moonshot · lane A
LostLeg Official Grade Over 8 · Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox 12 Won Over 7.5 · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves 5 Lost Moonshot · lane B
LostLeg Official Grade Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 · Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees 4-3 Won San Diego Padres -1.5 · Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres 3-1 Lost
Suggested Parlays published this day
The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.
Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
High Risk
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
Longshot
No card was published — every candidate on today's slate uses a market-context family (Hits) — the model behind it was demoted and is not a published GameTime projection, so no card is offered.
Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks
Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.
Biggest hits
- MLBGeorge Lombard Jr.Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+24.7pp edgeactual 3
- MLBTaylor WallsOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+23.4pp edgeactual 1
- MLBChase MeidrothOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.2pp edgeactual 2
- MLBBrayan RocchioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.1pp edgeactual 3
- MLBMax FriedOver 4.5 Strikeouts+19.9pp edgeactual 7
Biggest misses
- MLBTyler GlasnowOver 6.5 Strikeouts+32.8pp edgeactual 5
- MLBSamad TaylorOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+24.8pp edgeactual 0
- MLBJake CronenworthOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.3pp edgeactual 0
- MLBDrake BaldwinOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+21.4pp edgeactual 0
- MLBMookie BettsOver 1.5 Total Bases+19.3pp edgeactual 0
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
CLE @ CWS20–1333 dec60.6%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.11 | 1 | +2.0% | Low | Win |
| Jo Adell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.96 | 2 | -1.0% | Low | Win |
| Chase DeLauter | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.98 | 1 | -0.9% | Low | Win |
| Chase Meidroth | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.26 | 1 | +11.6% | High | Win |
| Miguel Vargas | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.91 | 1 | +0.6% | Low | Win |
| Sam Antonacci | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.13 | 1 | +7.5% | High | Win |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 0 | -2.8% | Low | Loss |
| Brayan Rocchio | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.04 | 2 | +9.9% | High | Win |
| Braden Montgomery | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.00 | 0 | +10.1% | High | Loss |
| Munetaka Murakami | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 0 | +6.5% | High | Loss |
| Kyle Teel | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.67 | 1 | -2.2% | Low | Win |
| Travis Bazzana | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 0 | +0.1% | Low | Loss |
| Patrick Bailey | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.61 | 2 | -2.7% | Low | Win |
| Colson Montgomery | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.52 | 0 | -2.9% | Low | Win |
| Steven Kwan | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.83 | 3 | +3.2% | Medium | Win |
| Jo Adell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.92 | 5 | +3.0% | Medium | Win |
| Chase DeLauter | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 3 | +5.6% | High | Win |
| Miguel Vargas | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.39 | 1 | +12.4% | High | Loss |
| Sam Antonacci | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.14 | 3 | +13.3% | High | Win |
| Chase Meidroth | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.60 | 2 | +22.2% | Low | Win |
| Munetaka Murakami | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.45 | 0 | +17.6% | High | Loss |
| Nathaniel Lowe | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.45 | 1 | +1.8% | Low | Loss |
| Brayan Rocchio | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.30 | 3 | +21.1% | Low | Win |
| Braden Montgomery | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.80 | 1 | +11.6% | High | Loss |
| Kyle Teel | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 2 | +14.1% | High | Win |
| Travis Bazzana | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.45 | 2 | +4.8% | Medium | Win |
| Patrick Bailey | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.33 | 3 | +6.1% | High | Win |
| Colson Montgomery | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.33 | 0 | +4.7% | Medium | Loss |
| Jo Adell | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.46 | 4 | +4.3% | Medium | Win |
| Miguel Vargas | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.68 | 1 | +9.8% | High | Loss |
| Steven Kwan | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.33 | 1 | +3.3% | Medium | Loss |
| Chase DeLauter | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.70 | 1 | +13.3% | High | Loss |
| Sam Antonacci | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.43 | 1 | +7.7% | High | Loss |
LAD @ ATL9–2635 dec25.7%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.25 | 0 | +5.8% | High | Loss |
| Shohei Ohtani | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.88 | 0 | -2.7% | Low | Loss |
| Will Smith | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | 0 | +8.1% | High | Loss |
| Freddie Freeman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | +3.2% | Medium | Loss |
| Kyle Tucker | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.01 | 1 | +7.7% | High | Win |
| Drake Baldwin | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.32 | 0 | +17.6% | High | Loss |
| Matt Olson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.98 | 0 | +8.2% | High | Loss |
| Michael Harris II | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.21 | 2 | +12.6% | High | Win |
| Andy Pages | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.08 | 2 | +11.9% | High | Win |
| Tommy Edman | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.78 | 0 | +0.4% | Low | Loss |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.65 | 1 | -1.3% | Low | Win |
| Max Muncy | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 1 | +7.2% | High | Win |
| Mike Yastrzemski | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.54 | 0 | +0.9% | Low | Loss |
| Austin Riley | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.69 | 0 | +8.0% | High | Loss |
| Sean Murphy | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.50 | 0 | +3.3% | Medium | Loss |
| Shohei Ohtani | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 1 | -2.0% | Low | Loss |
| Mookie Betts | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.57 | 0 | +13.9% | High | Loss |
| Will Smith | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.09 | 0 | +11.6% | High | Loss |
| Kyle Tucker | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.08 | 1 | +13.2% | High | Loss |
| Matt Olson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.13 | 0 | +14.5% | High | Loss |
| Freddie Freeman | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.72 | 0 | +6.9% | High | Loss |
| Drake Baldwin | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.46 | 0 | +21.4% | Low | Loss |
| Michael Harris II | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.30 | 3 | +18.6% | High | Win |
| Andy Pages | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 4 | +19.5% | High | Win |
| Max Muncy | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 3 | +12.2% | High | Win |
| Tommy Edman | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.90 | 1 | +13.3% | High | Loss |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.34 | 1 | +3.0% | Medium | Win |
| Mike Yastrzemski | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.33 | 0 | +13.4% | High | Loss |
| Austin Riley | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.52 | 0 | +15.2% | High | Loss |
| Sean Murphy | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.07 | 0 | +10.4% | High | Loss |
| Shohei Ohtani | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.39 | 0 | -0.1% | Low | Loss |
| Mookie Betts | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 0 | +19.3% | High | Loss |
| Will Smith | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.88 | 0 | +17.4% | High | Loss |
| Tyler Glasnow | Strikeouts | Over 6.5 | 8.53 | 5 | +32.8% | Low | Loss |
| Tyler Mahle | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 4.67 | 4 | +9.7% | High | Loss |
TB @ NYY19–1433 dec3 void57.6%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | Strikeouts | Over 3.5 | 3.60 | 3 | +9.5% | High | Loss |
| Max Fried | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 | 5.46 | 7 | +19.9% | High | Win |
| Cody Bellinger | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | -2.6% | Low | Loss |
| Chandler Simpson | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.24 | — | +9.0% | High | Void |
| Ben Rice | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.99 | 1 | +1.1% | Low | Win |
| Junior Caminero | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 1 | +4.2% | Medium | Win |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.95 | 0 | +4.9% | Medium | Loss |
| Jonathan Aranda | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.86 | 1 | +0.5% | Low | Win |
| George Lombard Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.03 | 2 | +11.1% | High | Win |
| Spencer Jones | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.68 | 1 | -3.4% | Low | Loss |
| Anthony Volpe | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.84 | 2 | +6.2% | High | Win |
| Liam Hicks | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.88 | 0 | +7.2% | High | Loss |
| Trent Grisham | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.52 | 0 | +0.8% | Low | Win |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 1 | +7.5% | High | Win |
| Austin Wells | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.61 | 0 | -0.8% | Low | Loss |
| Ryan Vilade | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.52 | 1 | -2.1% | Low | Win |
| Taylor Walls | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.70 | 1 | +13.2% | High | Win |
| Ben Rice | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.25 | 2 | +7.6% | High | Win |
| Cody Bellinger | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 0 | +5.3% | High | Loss |
| Junior Caminero | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.15 | 2 | +12.5% | High | Win |
| Chandler Simpson | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.04 | — | +15.0% | High | Void |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.81 | 0 | +7.9% | High | Loss |
| Spencer Jones | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.68 | 3 | +7.1% | High | Win |
| Jonathan Aranda | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.65 | 2 | +6.8% | High | Win |
| George Lombard Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.51 | 3 | +24.7% | Low | Win |
| Trent Grisham | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.29 | 0 | +1.0% | Low | Loss |
| Anthony Volpe | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.52 | 4 | +5.9% | High | Win |
| Liam Hicks | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.70 | 0 | +8.9% | High | Loss |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.80 | 4 | +11.7% | High | Win |
| Austin Wells | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.40 | 0 | +11.7% | High | Loss |
| Ryan Vilade | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.25 | 3 | +8.3% | High | Win |
| Taylor Walls | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.60 | 1 | +23.4% | Low | Win |
| Ben Rice | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 2.14 | 1 | +14.6% | High | Loss |
| Cody Bellinger | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.56 | 0 | +5.8% | High | Loss |
| Junior Caminero | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.70 | 1 | +11.8% | High | Loss |
| Chandler Simpson | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.44 | — | +10.7% | High | Void |
MIL @ SD16–2440 dec40.0%
| Player | Market | Lean / Line | Proj | Actual | Edge | Conf | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 1 | +2.9% | Medium | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.15 | 1 | +1.5% | Low | Win |
| William Contreras | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.97 | 2 | +0.4% | Low | Win |
| Manny Machado | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.71 | 1 | +0.2% | Low | Loss |
| Brice Turang | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.17 | 1 | +10.7% | High | Win |
| Ty France | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.11 | 0 | +8.3% | High | Loss |
| Sal Frelick | Hits | Under 0.5 | 0.56 | 1 | +5.3% | High | Loss |
| Austin Hays | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.87 | 0 | +2.2% | Low | Loss |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 1 | +5.7% | High | Win |
| Jackson Merrill | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.05 | 1 | +7.1% | High | Win |
| Jake Bauers | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.84 | 1 | +2.7% | Medium | Win |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.72 | 2 | -3.3% | Low | Win |
| Xander Bogaerts | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 0 | +8.2% | High | Loss |
| Christian Yelich | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.74 | 1 | +0.1% | Low | Win |
| Joey Ortiz | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.02 | 0 | +12.5% | High | Loss |
| Luis Campusano | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.75 | 0 | +3.6% | Medium | Loss |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits | Over 0.5 | 0.94 | 0 | +13.0% | High | Loss |
| Samad Taylor | Hits | Over 0.5 | 1.06 | 0 | +19.4% | High | Loss |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.33 | 3 | +9.6% | High | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.62 | 2 | +12.8% | High | Win |
| William Contreras | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.12 | 2 | +9.1% | High | Win |
| Manny Machado | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.80 | 1 | +5.6% | High | Loss |
| Ty France | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.22 | 0 | +13.8% | High | Loss |
| Brice Turang | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.54 | 1 | +19.9% | High | Loss |
| Jackson Merrill | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 2.20 | 1 | +14.3% | High | Loss |
| Jake Bauers | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.96 | 2 | +10.6% | High | Win |
| Austin Hays | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.83 | 0 | +10.4% | High | Loss |
| Sal Frelick | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Under 1.5 | 1.06 | 3 | +0.8% | Low | Loss |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.71 | 1 | +8.4% | High | Loss |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 4 | +4.3% | Medium | Win |
| Christian Yelich | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.79 | 1 | +11.5% | High | Loss |
| Xander Bogaerts | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.95 | 0 | +16.6% | High | Loss |
| Joey Ortiz | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 0 | +18.2% | High | Loss |
| Luis Campusano | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 1.48 | 0 | +8.1% | High | Loss |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.30 | 0 | +22.3% | Low | Loss |
| Samad Taylor | Hits + Runs + RBIs | Over 0.5 | 2.23 | 0 | +24.8% | Low | Loss |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.97 | 4 | +11.7% | High | Win |
| Jackson Chourio | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.85 | 1 | +9.6% | High | Loss |
| Manny Machado | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.36 | 1 | +5.3% | High | Loss |
| William Contreras | Total Bases | Over 1.5 | 1.50 | 2 | +8.3% | High | Win |