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Overview MLB· live NFL· week report NBA· Official Forecast record Parlays· pending snapshots

Results · one day

Thursday, October 8

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 1–1 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 1 call paused on the site or not shown before the game.

CLE @ CWS
Final · CLE 9 – 5 CWS
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner CLE (away) Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 7.5 Loss
Run line (simulated ±1.5) CWS +1.5 Loss
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 26–12 →

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	CLE (away)	Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	UNDER 7.5	Loss
Run line (simulated ±1.5)	CWS +1.5	Loss

NFL · 0–1 game winners

Full NFL record →

Model Performance:Winner →

TB @ DAL

Final · TB 24 – 16 DAL

Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official final score

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	DAL (home)	Loss

Player ranges · 22 of 29 finals landed inside the printed range

A coverage record, not wins and losses: a range is “inside” when the player's final landed within it as printed.

Player	Stat	Range	Final	Inside?
Javonte Williams · DAL	Receptions	0–6	2	Inside
Javonte Williams · DAL	Receiving yards	0–47	17	Inside
Javonte Williams · DAL	Rushing yards	23–103	45	Inside
CeeDee Lamb · DAL	Receptions	3–14	2	Outside
CeeDee Lamb · DAL	Receiving yards	26–148	9	Outside
Bucky Irving · TB	Receptions	0–5	2	Inside
Bucky Irving · TB	Receiving yards	0–48	10	Inside
Bucky Irving · TB	Rushing yards	18–92	165	Outside
Malik Davis · DAL	Rushing yards	0–45	—	Not graded
George Pickens · DAL	Receptions	1–8	9	Outside
George Pickens · DAL	Receiving yards	8–96	130	Outside
Jake Ferguson · DAL	Receptions	0–5	3	Inside
Jake Ferguson · DAL	Receiving yards	0–49	19	Inside
Emeka Egbuka · TB	Receptions	1–7	6	Inside
Emeka Egbuka · TB	Receiving yards	6–82	38	Inside
Kenny Gainwell · TB	Receptions	0–5	3	Inside
Kenny Gainwell · TB	Receiving yards	0–44	10	Inside
Kenny Gainwell · TB	Rushing yards	0–27	18	Inside
Ryan Flournoy · DAL	Receptions	1–7	3	Inside
Ryan Flournoy · DAL	Receiving yards	2–64	90	Outside
Cade Otton · TB	Receptions	1–8	3	Inside
Cade Otton · TB	Receiving yards	7–82	25	Inside
Chris Godwin Jr. · TB	Receptions	1–8	3	Inside
Chris Godwin Jr. · TB	Receiving yards	5–76	37	Inside
Tyler Goodson · DAL	Rushing yards	0–35	—	Not graded
Ted Hurst III · TB	Receptions	0–5	—	Not graded
Ted Hurst III · TB	Receiving yards	0–66	—	Not graded
Dak Prescott · DAL	Rushing yards	0–33	0	Inside
Dak Prescott · DAL	Passing yards	136–381	316	Inside
Sean Tucker · TB	Rushing yards	0–32	18	Inside
Jalon Daniels · TB	Rushing yards	0–39	23	Inside
Tez Johnson · TB	Receptions	0–3	1	Inside
Tez Johnson · TB	Receiving yards	0–42	64	Outside

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

Published Wed, Oct 7, 10:17 PM ET · first kickoff Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

1. Javonte Williams DAL v TBScored
Projection 72.5% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 2 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
2. CeeDee Lamb DAL v TBDid not score
Projection 46.8% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 2 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
3. Bucky Irving TB v DALScored
Projection 37.8% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
4. Malik Davis DAL v TBVoid · did not play
Projection 25.2% to score · no book line captured
No earlier 2026 game on our boards
Game receipt →
5. George Pickens DAL v TBScored
Projection 24.5% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →

NFL · Receptions · top 5

1. CeeDee Lamb DAL v TBOutside the range · 2
Projection 7 rec (3–14) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 17 · 7 · 8 rec
Game receipt →
2. George Pickens DAL v TBOutside the range · 9
Projection 4 rec (1–8) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 2 · 7 · 6 rec
Game receipt →
3. Cade Otton TB v DALInside the range · 3
Projection 4 rec (1–8) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 4 · 3 · 5 rec
Game receipt →
4. Chris Godwin Jr. TB v DALInside the range · 3
Projection 4 rec (1–8) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 6 · 3 · 3 rec
Game receipt →
5. Emeka Egbuka TB v DALInside the range · 6
Projection 3 rec (1–7) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 2 · 5 · 3 rec
Game receipt →

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

1. CeeDee Lamb DAL v TBOutside the range · 9
Projection 75 yds (27–145) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 189 · 112 · 153 yds
Game receipt →
2. George Pickens DAL v TBOutside the range · 130
Projection 41 yds (8–95) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 75 · 82 · 40 yds
Game receipt →
3. Cade Otton TB v DALInside the range · 25
Projection 35 yds (7–82) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 37 · 56 · 38 yds
Game receipt →
4. Emeka Egbuka TB v DALInside the range · 38
Projection 34 yds (6–82) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 13 · 62 · 16 yds
Game receipt →
5. Chris Godwin Jr. TB v DALInside the range · 37
Projection 33 yds (5–76) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 31 · 25 · 46 yds
Game receipt →

Not eligible that day: Rushing yards (estimate only), Passing yards (estimate only).

MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

Bank Builder · lane A
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Bank Builder · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane A
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

Suggested Parlays published this day

The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.

Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
High Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Longshot
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB

68.4%

26–12 on 38

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBBrenton DoyleOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+25.3pp edgeactual 2
MLBChase MeidrothOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.9pp edgeactual 3
MLBMunetaka MurakamiOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+22.7pp edgeactual 2
MLBBrenton DoyleOver 0.5 Hits+18.1pp edgeactual 1
MLBMiguel VargasOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.2pp edgeactual 4

Biggest misses

MLBBrayan RocchioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+24.1pp edgeactual 1
MLBKyle TeelOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.4pp edgeactual 0
MLBBraden MontgomeryOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+15.7pp edgeactual 0
MLBBraden MontgomeryOver 0.5 Hits+15.7pp edgeactual 0
MLBRandal GrichukOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+14.4pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

CLE @ CWS

26–1238 dec68.4%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Steven Kwan	Hits	Over 0.5	1.11	1	+2.9%	Medium	Win
Chase DeLauter	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	1	+1.1%	Low	Win
Chase Meidroth	Hits	Over 0.5	1.26	1	+13.6%	High	Win
Jo Adell	Hits	Over 0.5	0.96	1	+3.3%	Medium	Win
Miguel Vargas	Hits	Over 0.5	0.91	1	+3.9%	Medium	Win
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	2	+1.0%	Low	Win
Randal Grichuk	Hits	Over 0.5	0.84	0	+5.9%	High	Loss
Brayan Rocchio	Hits	Over 0.5	1.04	0	+13.7%	High	Loss
Travis Bazzana	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	1	+2.1%	Low	Win
Patrick Bailey	Hits	Over 0.5	0.61	2	-1.6%	Low	Win
Braden Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	1.00	0	+15.7%	High	Loss
Munetaka Murakami	Hits	Over 0.5	0.87	1	+10.9%	High	Win
Colson Montgomery	Hits	Over 0.5	0.52	2	-2.5%	Low	Win
Kyle Teel	Hits	Over 0.5	0.67	0	+4.7%	Medium	Loss
Brenton Doyle	Hits	Over 0.5	0.94	1	+18.1%	High	Win
Tommy Pham	Hits	Under 0.5	0.25	0	+2.9%	Medium	Win
Steven Kwan	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.83	3	+3.8%	Medium	Win
Chase DeLauter	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.97	2	+7.1%	High	Win
Jo Adell	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.92	3	+5.9%	High	Win
Chase Meidroth	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.60	3	+22.9%	Low	Win
Miguel Vargas	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.39	4	+17.2%	High	Win
Nathaniel Lowe	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.45	2	+3.5%	Medium	Win
Munetaka Murakami	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.45	2	+22.7%	Low	Win
Brayan Rocchio	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.30	1	+24.1%	Low	Loss
Travis Bazzana	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.45	3	+6.7%	High	Win
Randal Grichuk	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.97	0	+14.4%	High	Loss
Patrick Bailey	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	6	+7.5%	High	Win
Braden Montgomery	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.80	0	+15.7%	High	Loss
Kyle Teel	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.97	0	+17.4%	High	Loss
Colson Montgomery	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	3	+6.9%	High	Win
Brenton Doyle	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.87	2	+25.3%	Low	Win
Tommy Pham	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	0.92	0	+7.5%	High	Loss
Jo Adell	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.46	1	+7.0%	High	Loss
Chase DeLauter	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.70	1	+13.2%	High	Loss
Steven Kwan	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.33	1	+4.8%	Medium	Loss
Parker Messick	Strikeouts	Under 5.5	5.46	5	+5.4%	High	Win
Hagen Smith	Strikeouts	Under 1.5	1.76	0	+1.7%	Low	Win
Parker Messick	Strikeouts	Under 6.5	5.46	5	+3.9%	Medium	Win

all settled dates

Game by game

MLB · 1–1 game calls

CLE @ CWS

NFL · 0–1 game winners

TB @ DAL

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

NFL · Receptions · top 5

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

Product cards settled this day

Bank Builder · lane A

Bank Builder · lane B

Moonshot · lane A

Moonshot · lane B

Suggested Parlays published this day

Low Risk

Medium Risk

High Risk

Longshot

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks