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26–12 on 38 decisive picks · 68.4%2026-10-08
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MLB model board · 2026-10-08

1 MLB games · 39 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 8, 5:26 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
17
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
8
model vs market · context
Small gap
6
4 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
4
no projection emitted
Strikeouts1 gap ≥ 5 pp·3 totalHits6 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 totalHits + Runs + RBIs10 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+13.6%
proj 1.26-201 · draftkings
Randal Grichuk
Randal GrichukCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+14.4%
proj 1.97-180 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden MontgomeryCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+15.7%
proj 1.8-159 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle TeelCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+17.4%
proj 1.97-148 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven KwanCLE vs CWS
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+2.9%
proj 1.11-240 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioCLE vs CWS
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+13.7%
proj 1.04-146 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden MontgomeryCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+15.7%
proj 1-130 · draftkings
Brenton Doyle
Brenton DoyleCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+18.1%
proj 0.94-107 · draftkings
Filters · 39 of 39 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Rate Field39 leansFinal · graded

CLE@CWS

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Parker Messick
probable · awayParker Messick
CLE
Hagen Smith
probable · homeHagen Smith
CWS
Strikeouts
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
CLEvsCWSPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER5.5
Projection5.46
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.0 K across 32 starts
+121 · draftkings
Parker Messick
Parker Messick
CLEvsCWSPitcherStrikeouts
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER6.5
Projection5.46
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.0 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 6.0 K across 32 starts
-170 · fanduel
Hagen Smith
Hagen Smith
CWSvsCLEPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.76
Edge+1.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 1.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 2.3 K across 18 starts
+139 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Brenton Doyle
Brenton Doyle
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+18.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.67 across 73 games
-107 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+17.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 39 games
-148 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+17.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 159 games
+106 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+15.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 92 games
-159 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+15.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 92 games
-130 · draftkings
Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.97
Edge+14.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.45 across 112 games
-180 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+13.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-146 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+13.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 154 games
-201 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 127 games
-127 · draftkings
Tommy Pham
Tommy Pham
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.92
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 15 games
-121 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-164 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
-108 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+6.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
-145 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+6.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
+136 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
-107 · draftkings
Randal Grichuk
Randal Grichuk
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.68 across 112 games
-148 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 39 games
-114 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+3.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 159 games
-183 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+3.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
-118 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+3.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
+120 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-191 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-240 · draftkings
Tommy Pham
Tommy Pham
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.25
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.20 across 15 games
-142 · draftkings
Brenton Doyle
Brenton DoyleModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.87
Edge+25.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.34 across 73 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-126 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+24.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+133 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.6
Edge+23%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 154 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+104 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka MurakamiModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.45
Edge+22.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 127 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+129 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−2.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 153 games
-115 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-138 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−1.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-131 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-206 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-151 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLE @ CWSBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CLE @ CWSBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLE @ CWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CLE @ CWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
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HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.

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