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64–77 on 141 decisive picks · 45.4%2026-10-07
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MLB model board · 2026-10-07

4 MLB games · 144 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 7, 5:26 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
77
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
13
model vs market · context
Small gap
30
8 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
16
no projection emitted
Strikeouts3 gap ≥ 5 pp·4 totalHits29 gap ≥ 5 pp·70 totalHits + Runs + RBIs45 gap ≥ 5 pp·70 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinATL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+17.6%
proj 1.32-172 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+11.6%
proj 1.26-220 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler SimpsonTB vs NYY
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+9%
proj 1.24-227 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs SD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+10.7%
proj 1.17-188 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie BettsLAD vs ATL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+5.8%
proj 1.25-234 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris IIATL vs LAD
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+12.6%
proj 1.21-168 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam AntonacciCWS vs CLE
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+7.5%
proj 1.13-209 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD vs MIL
Gap 2.5–5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+2.9%
proj 1.17-254 · draftkings
Filters · 144 of 144 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
Rate Field32 leansFinal · graded

CLE@CWS

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

first pitch
4:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Daniel Espino
probable · awayDaniel Espino
CLE
Sean Newcomb
probable · homeSean Newcomb
CWS
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.45
Edge+17.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.99 across 127 games
+105 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+14.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.85 across 39 games
+121 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.14
Edge+13.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 139 games
-102 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.39
Edge+12.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.18 across 159 games
-114 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase Meidroth
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.26
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 154 games
-220 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 92 games
+121 · draftkings
Braden Montgomery
Braden Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1
Edge+10.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 92 games
-164 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan Rocchio
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.04
Edge+9.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 153 games
-171 · draftkings
Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.13
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 139 games
-209 · draftkings
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+6.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 127 games
-152 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+6.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.27 across 104 games
-174 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 133 games
-115 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+4.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.80 across 124 games
+126 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+4.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 153 games
-159 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.76 across 150 games
-121 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.92
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.94 across 159 games
-120 · draftkings
Chase Meidroth
Chase MeidrothModel anomaly
CWSvsCLEBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.6
Edge+22.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.01 across 154 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+101 · draftkings
Brayan Rocchio
Brayan RocchioModel anomaly
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+21.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 153 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+118 · draftkings
Colson Montgomery
Colson Montgomery
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 153 games
-108 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 123 games
-177 · draftkings
Patrick Bailey
Patrick Bailey
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.62 across 104 games
-137 · draftkings
Kyle Teel
Kyle Teel
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.67
Edge−2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.64 across 39 games
-151 · draftkings
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.01 across 150 games
-251 · draftkings
Nathaniel Lowe
Nathaniel Lowe
CLEvsCWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.45
Edge+1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.61 across 123 games
+112 · draftkings
Jo Adell
Jo Adell
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.96
Edge−1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.91 across 159 games
-233 · draftkings
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge−0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 133 games
-226 · draftkings
Miguel Vargas
Miguel Vargas
CWSvsCLEBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.91
Edge+0.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.92 across 159 games
-212 · draftkings
Travis Bazzana
Travis Bazzana
CLEvsCWSBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 124 games
-150 · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLE @ CWSBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CLE @ CWSBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jose Ramirez
CLE @ CWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Angel Martinez
CLE @ CWSBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Truist Park38 leansFinal · graded

LAD@ATL

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

first pitch
6:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Tyler Glasnow
probable · awayTyler Glasnow
LAD
Tyler Mahle
probable · homeTyler Mahle
ATL
Strikeouts
Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle
ATLvsLADPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection4.67
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 4.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.1 K across 27 starts
+128 · draftkings
Tyler Glasnow
Tyler GlasnowModel anomaly
LADvsATLPitcherStrikeouts
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER6.5
Projection8.53
Edge+32.8%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 9.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 7.5 K across 13 starts
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+101 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+19.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 133 games
+124 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.3
Edge+18.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.19 across 155 games
+120 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.32
Edge+17.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.13 across 138 games
-172 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+15.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 159 games
-127 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.13
Edge+14.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.15 across 162 games
+108 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.57
Edge+13.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.14 across 123 games
-116 · draftkings
Mike Yastrzemski
Mike Yastrzemski
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.33
Edge+13.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.25 across 138 games
-128 · draftkings
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.9
Edge+13.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.90 across 83 games
+127 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.08
Edge+13.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.87 across 153 games
+108 · draftkings
Michael Harris II
Michael Harris II
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.21
Edge+12.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.12 across 155 games
-168 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.85
Edge+12.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.89 across 148 games
+127 · draftkings
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.08
Edge+11.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 133 games
-158 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.09
Edge+11.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 73 games
-105 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.24 across 33 games
-109 · draftkings
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.98
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.97 across 162 games
-172 · draftkings
Will Smith
Will Smith
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.07
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-199 · draftkings
Austin Riley
Austin Riley
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.69
Edge+8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 159 games
-103 · draftkings
Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.01
Edge+7.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.82 across 153 games
-174 · draftkings
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.83 across 148 games
-139 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.72
Edge+6.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.03 across 153 games
+109 · draftkings
Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+5.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.00 across 123 games
-234 · draftkings
Sean Murphy
Sean Murphy
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.5
Edge+3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.61 across 33 games
+114 · draftkings
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
LADvsATLBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.09 across 153 games
-186 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.34
Edge+3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 162 games
-178 · draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Drake BaldwinModel anomaly
ATLvsLADBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.46
Edge+21.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.60
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 138 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+115 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge−2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.07 across 135 games
-216 · draftkings
Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani
LADvsATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge−2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 2.33 across 135 games
-126 · draftkings
Ozzie Albies
Ozzie Albies
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.65
Edge−1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.90 across 162 games
-140 · draftkings
Mike Yastrzemski
Mike Yastrzemski
ATLvsLADBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.54
Edge+0.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.50
  • SeasonSeason average 0.59 across 138 games
-104 · draftkings
Tommy Edman
Tommy Edman
LADvsATLBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.78
Edge+0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.87 across 83 games
-154 · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
LAD @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
LAD @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
LAD @ ATLBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Teoscar Hernandez
LAD @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Ronald Acuna Jr.
LAD @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Mauricio Dubon
LAD @ ATLBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yankee Stadium38 leansFinal · graded

TB@NYY

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Nick Martinez
probable · awayNick Martinez
TB
Max Fried
probable · homeMax Fried
NYY
Strikeouts
Max Fried
Max Fried
NYYvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER4.5
Projection5.46
Edge+19.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 5.2 K across 20 starts
-108 · draftkings
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
TBvsNYYPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER3.5
Projection3.6
Edge+9.5%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.5 K across 31 starts
+133 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+15%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
+104 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+13.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
+117 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+12.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
+101 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+11.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
-165 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.4
Edge+11.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.10 across 121 games
-153 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.03
Edge+11.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.86 across 42 games
-165 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-227 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.7
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
-174 · draftkings
Ryan Vilade
Ryan Vilade
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.25
Edge+8.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 93 games
-137 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.81
Edge+7.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.71 across 136 games
+106 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.25
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 154 games
-123 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-139 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+7.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-142 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.68
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.67 across 84 games
+114 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.65
Edge+6.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
+116 · draftkings
Anthony Volpe
Anthony Volpe
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 69 games
-144 · draftkings
Anthony Volpe
Anthony Volpe
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.52
Edge+5.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.54 across 69 games
-181 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+5.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 132 games
-114 · draftkings
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+4.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 136 games
-188 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+4.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-201 · draftkings
George Lombard Jr.
George Lombard Jr.Model anomaly
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER1.5
Projection2.51
Edge+24.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.93 across 42 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
+120 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor WallsModel anomaly
TBvsNYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+23.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-111 · draftkings
Spencer Jones
Spencer Jones
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.68
Edge−3.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.76 across 84 games
+122 · draftkings
Cody Bellinger
Cody Bellinger
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge−2.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 132 games
-254 · draftkings
Ryan Vilade
Ryan Vilade
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge−2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.65 across 93 games
-113 · draftkings
Ben Rice
Ben Rice
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.99
Edge+1.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.98 across 154 games
-222 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
OVER1.5
Projection1.29
Edge+1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.78 across 120 games
+122 · draftkings
Austin Wells
Austin Wells
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.61
Edge−0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.51 across 121 games
-127 · draftkings
Trent Grisham
Trent Grisham
NYYvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.52
Edge+0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.30
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 120 games
+107 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsNYYBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+0.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-186 · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
TB @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TB @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TB @ NYYBatterHits
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Luis Garcia Jr.
TB @ NYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
TB @ NYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line1.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
TB @ NYYBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Sample too small
Line0.5
Projection—
Edge—
  • Sampletoo small to project (0 games of log data)
no recent trend
— · draftkings
Petco Park36 leansFinal · graded

MIL@SD

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

first pitch
10:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
probable · awayTBD
MIL
Walker Buehler
probable · homeWalker Buehler
SD
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+20%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
+105 · draftkings
Samad Taylor
Samad Taylor
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.06
Edge+19.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 47 games
-116 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.97
Edge+18.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.64 across 119 games
+135 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.95
Edge+16.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.60 across 153 games
+126 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.2
Edge+14.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.30
  • SeasonSeason average 2.10 across 157 games
+107 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.22
Edge+13.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.04 across 128 games
+104 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake Cronenworth
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+13%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.79 across 108 games
-130 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+12.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-124 · draftkings
Joey Ortiz
Joey Ortiz
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.02
Edge+12.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 119 games
-150 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+11.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
+125 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-188 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.96
Edge+10.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
+109 · draftkings
Austin Hays
Austin Hays
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.83
Edge+10.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.55 across 38 games
+111 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.33
Edge+9.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.26 across 159 games
-131 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+9.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
-106 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+8.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
+117 · draftkings
Ty France
Ty France
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.11
Edge+8.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.02 across 128 games
-188 · draftkings
Xander Bogaerts
Xander Bogaerts
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+8.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.78 across 153 games
-160 · draftkings
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.48
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 1.56 across 71 games
-170 · draftkings
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.05
Edge+7.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 0.99 across 157 games
-175 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+5.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-177 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.8
Edge+5.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.91 across 158 games
-101 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+5.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+139 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.5
Edge+4.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
+119 · draftkings
Luis Campusano
Luis Campusano
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.75
Edge+3.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.80 across 71 games
-136 · draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDvsMILBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+2.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.14 across 159 games
-254 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsSDBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-168 · draftkings
Samad Taylor
Samad TaylorModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.23
Edge+24.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.50
  • SeasonSeason average 1.96 across 47 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-141 · draftkings
Jake Cronenworth
Jake CronenworthModel anomaly
SDvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection2.3
Edge+22.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 3.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.59 across 108 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-165 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge−3.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-166 · draftkings
Austin Hays
Austin Hays
SDvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+2.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.74 across 38 games
-183 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-253 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsSDBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge+0.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-152 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+0.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-211 · draftkings
Manny Machado
Manny Machado
SDvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+0.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.81 across 158 games
+147 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsSDBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-155 · draftkings
Open MLB model audit · partial →
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