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Results · one day

Friday, October 23

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 2–0 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 1 call paused on the site or not shown before the game.

Premier League · 0–1 match results

Full Premier League record →

Model Performance:Match result →

  • Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest

    Final · Result: draw (1-1)

    Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official result

    CallPickOutcome
    Match resultaway winLoss

NBA · Official Forecast vs final

Each game's official winner side as it was frozen before tip, against the official final. A game with no final yet is pending and a disputed final is held — neither is ever counted as a miss. The model's NBA single picks are graded in the model suggestions record.

Model Performance · season to date: the official side won 44 and lost 27 of 71 decided games · 10 pending.

Counts, not an accuracy claim: the preregistered minimum before any judgment of the winner side is 300 graded games, and this is 71. The Elo-derived estimate shown on the boards is not a validated probability, and no calibration is claimed.

Fri, Oct 23 · 12 games · side won 4, lost 8
Official winner side vs final, Fri, Oct 23
GameOfficial sideFinalResult
CHI @ MILtip 4:00 PM ETMILfrozen 8:23 AM ETCHI 132 – 125 MILSide lost
NY @ BOStip 7:00 PM ETNYfrozen 10:12 AM ETNY 103 – 107 BOSSide lost
ATL @ CHAtip 7:00 PM ETCHAfrozen 10:12 AM ETATL 128 – 81 CHASide lost
DAL @ INDtip 7:00 PM ETINDfrozen 10:12 AM ETDAL 121 – 105 INDSide lost
MIN @ ORLtip 7:00 PM ETORLfrozen 10:12 AM ETMIN 115 – 93 ORLSide lost
TOR @ WSHtip 7:00 PM ETTORfrozen 10:12 AM ETTOR 112 – 102 WSHSide won
DET @ MIAtip 8:00 PM ETDETfrozen 10:12 AM ETDET 128 – 111 MIASide won
HOU @ SAtip 9:30 PM ETSAfrozen 10:12 AM ETHOU 114 – 110 SASide lost
NO @ UTAHtip 9:30 PM ETNOfrozen 10:12 AM ETNO 119 – 120 UTAHSide lost
MEM @ GStip 10:00 PM ETGSfrozen 10:12 AM ETMEM 111 – 108 GSSide lost
LAC @ LALtip 10:00 PM ETLALfrozen 10:12 AM ETLAC 117 – 125 LALSide won
POR @ SACtip 10:00 PM ETPORfrozen 10:12 AM ETPOR 128 – 120 SACSide won

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

No qualifying board was frozen for Friday, October 23.

  • MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
  • Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
  • UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

  • Bank Builder · lane A

    No card placed

    No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

  • Bank Builder · lane B

    No card placed

    No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

  • Moonshot · lane A

    No card placed

    No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

  • Moonshot · lane B

    No card placed

    No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

Suggested Parlays published this day

The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.

  • Low Risk

    No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

  • Medium Risk

    No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

  • High Risk

    No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

  • Longshot

    No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB
55.0%
22–18 on 40
Full MLB audit →
Biggest hits
  • MLBChandler SimpsonOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.7pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBVictor Mesa Jr.Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+14.3pp edgeactual 1
  • MLBLiam HicksOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+13.4pp edgeactual 2
  • MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+11.3pp edgeactual 4
  • MLBJackson ChourioOver 1.5 Total Bases+11.3pp edgeactual 2
Biggest misses
  • MLBTaylor WallsOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+25.2pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBBrice TurangOver 1.5 Total Bases+17.6pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBBrice TurangOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.3pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBJonny DelucaOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+17.1pp edgeactual 0
  • MLBYandy DiazOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+11.2pp edgeactual 0
MLB settled games · projection vs actual
TB @ MIL
22–1840 dec2 void55.0%
PlayerMarketLean / LineProjActualEdgeConfOutcome
Nick MartinezStrikeoutsOver 3.53.605+7.4%HighWin
Jacob MisiorowskiStrikeoutsUnder 6.56.713-1.9%LowWin
Jackson ChourioHitsOver 0.51.152+1.3%LowWin
Chandler SimpsonHitsOver 0.51.242+9.4%HighWin
Yandy DiazHitsOver 0.50.930-2.7%LowLoss
Brice TurangHitsOver 0.51.170+8.1%HighLoss
William ContrerasHitsOver 0.50.972+1.5%LowWin
Christian YelichHitsOver 0.50.741-1.8%LowWin
Jake BauersHitsOver 0.50.841+2.8%MediumWin
Cooper PrattHitsOver 0.50.940+7.6%HighLoss
Junior CamineroHitsOver 0.50.971+9.2%HighWin
Sal FrelickHitsUnder 0.50.561+2.1%LowLoss
Jonathan ArandaHitsOver 0.50.863+6.2%HighWin
Garrett MitchellHitsOver 0.50.720+0.1%LowLoss
Jonny DelucaHitsOver 0.50.950+12.9%HighLoss
Victor Mesa Jr.HitsOver 0.50.871+9.7%HighWin
Liam HicksHitsOver 0.50.880+11.7%HighLoss
David HamiltonHitsOver 0.50.711+6.5%HighWin
Richie PalaciosHitsOver 0.50.74—+11.1%HighVoid
Taylor WallsHitsOver 0.50.700+14.3%HighLoss
Jackson ChourioHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.624+11.3%HighWin
Brice TurangHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.540+17.3%HighLoss
Jake BauersHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.961+8.9%HighLoss
William ContrerasHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.123+11.0%HighWin
Yandy DiazHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.060+11.2%HighLoss
Chandler SimpsonHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.042+16.7%HighWin
Christian YelichHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.793+10.9%HighWin
Cooper PrattHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.711+10.7%HighLoss
Garrett MitchellHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.51.500+7.5%HighLoss
Junior CamineroHits + Runs + RBIsOver 1.52.151+19.7%HighLoss
Sal FrelickHits + Runs + RBIsUnder 1.51.061-3.2%LowWin
Jonathan ArandaHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.654+8.8%HighWin
Jonny DelucaHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.890+17.1%HighLoss
Victor Mesa Jr.Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.801+14.3%HighWin
Liam HicksHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.702+13.4%HighWin
David HamiltonHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.241+8.8%HighWin
Richie PalaciosHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.84—+23.9%LowVoid
Taylor WallsHits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.51.600+25.2%LowLoss
Jackson ChourioTotal BasesOver 1.51.852+11.3%HighWin
Brice TurangTotal BasesOver 1.52.020+17.6%HighLoss
Yandy DiazTotal BasesOver 1.51.290+5.2%HighLoss
Chandler SimpsonTotal BasesOver 1.51.442+10.3%HighWin
all settled dates
each record stands alone · pushes and voids are never losses · educational use only · not betting advice