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MLB model board · 2026-10-23

1 MLB games · 38 model-vs-market reads

Projections for pitcher strikeouts and batter markets only. Home runs live on Homer Nukes because the variance profile is different.

Market context, not picks. Calibration notice (audit 2026-07-21): across 18,659 settled leans, none of these markets' model probabilities out-predict the market on Brier or log loss — the model is overconfident (its high-confidence reads under-perform). Treat the model number as a market-anchored research signal, not a proven advantage; the market price is the better probability. Paper / review / educational only — never a bet. Total bases is disabled for prediction and is not listed here; its settled history stays on Results.

SCHEDULEliveMODEL LEANSavailableUPDATEDOct 23, 5:28 AM ETeducational analytics only
Gap ≥ 5 pp
27
model vs market · context
Gap 2.5–5 pp
1
model vs market · context
Small gap
8
2 anomalies shown separately
Sample too small
0
no projection emitted
Strikeouts1 gap ≥ 5 pp·2 totalHits11 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 totalHits + Runs + RBIs15 gap ≥ 5 pp·18 total
Highest model probabilities · 8 shown
Market context · no model anomalies
Chandler Simpson
Chandler SimpsonTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+9.4%
proj 1.24-223 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny DelucaTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+17.1%
proj 1.89-154 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice TurangMIL vs TB
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+8.1%
proj 1.17-211 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.TB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+14.3%
proj 1.8-148 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson ChourioMIL vs TB
Small gap
HitsOver 0.5+1.3%
proj 1.15-256 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan ArandaTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+8.9%
proj 1.65-177 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam HicksTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
Hits + Runs + RBIsOver 0.5+13.4%
proj 1.7-144 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior CamineroTB vs MIL
Gap ≥ 5 pp
HitsOver 0.5+9.2%
proj 0.97-162 · draftkings
Filters · 38 of 38 leans
Market
Gap size
Team
Sort
Density
American Family Field38 leansFinal · graded

TB@MIL

Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers

first pitch
8:00 PM ET
Game details · probable pitchers
Nick Martinez
probable · awayNick Martinez
TB
Jacob Misiorowski
probable · homeJacob Misiorowski
MIL
Strikeouts
Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez
TBvsMILPitcherStrikeouts
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER3.5
Projection3.6
Edge+7.4%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 3.7 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 3.5 K across 31 starts
+122 · draftkings
Jacob Misiorowski
Jacob Misiorowski
MILvsTBPitcherStrikeouts
Small gap
UNDER6.5
Projection6.71
Edge−1.9%
  • Recent formLast 3 starts averaging 5.3 strikeouts
  • SeasonSeason average 8.4 K across 30 starts
+106 · draftkings
Batter markets · hits + total bases
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.15
Edge+19.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.29 across 162 games
+135 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.54
Edge+17.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.39 across 150 games
-106 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.89
Edge+17.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 1.79 across 104 games
-154 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.04
Edge+16.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.88 across 148 games
+111 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.8
Edge+14.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 73 games
-148 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor Walls
TBvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.7
Edge+14.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
+122 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.7
Edge+13.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.40
  • SeasonSeason average 2.00 across 142 games
-144 · draftkings
Jonny Deluca
Jonny Deluca
TBvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.95
Edge+12.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 104 games
-134 · draftkings
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks
TBvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.88
Edge+11.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.96 across 142 games
-118 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.62
Edge+11.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.70
  • SeasonSeason average 2.54 across 127 games
-132 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.06
Edge+11.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.32 across 154 games
+104 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie Palacios
TBvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge+11.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.69 across 118 games
+100 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection2.12
Edge+11%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.00
  • SeasonSeason average 2.24 across 147 games
+102 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.79
Edge+10.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.98 across 117 games
+122 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.71
Edge+10.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.60
  • SeasonSeason average 1.82 across 72 games
+128 · draftkings
Victor Mesa Jr.
Victor Mesa Jr.
TBvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.87
Edge+9.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 73 games
-127 · draftkings
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson
TBvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+9.4%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.18 across 148 games
-223 · draftkings
Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero
TBvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+9.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.05 across 162 games
-162 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.96
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.80
  • SeasonSeason average 2.12 across 144 games
+102 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.65
Edge+8.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 2.09 across 155 games
-177 · draftkings
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.24
Edge+8.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.38 across 114 games
-138 · draftkings
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
MILvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection1.17
Edge+8.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.30
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 150 games
-211 · draftkings
Cooper Pratt
Cooper Pratt
MILvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.94
Edge+7.6%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.00
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 72 games
-163 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER1.5
Projection1.5
Edge+7.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.20
  • SeasonSeason average 1.81 across 144 games
+135 · draftkings
David Hamilton
David Hamilton
MILvsTBBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.71
Edge+6.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 0.73 across 114 games
-112 · draftkings
Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda
TBvsMILBatterHits
Gap ≥ 5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.86
Edge+6.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.03 across 155 games
-146 · draftkings
Jake Bauers
Jake Bauers
MILvsTBBatterHits
Gap 2.5–5 pp
OVER0.5
Projection0.84
Edge+2.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.80
  • SeasonSeason average 0.88 across 144 games
-167 · draftkings
Taylor Walls
Taylor WallsModel anomaly
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.6
Edge+25.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.50 across 118 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-103 · draftkings
Richie Palacios
Richie PalaciosModel anomaly
TBvsMILBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Anomaly · gap too large to trust
OVER0.5
Projection1.84
Edge+23.9%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 2.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.58 across 118 games
  • Calibration watchEdge above anomaly threshold — capped to Low confidence
-117 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsTBBatterHits + Runs + RBIs
Small gap
UNDER1.5
Projection1.06
Edge−3.2%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.41 across 109 games
-180 · draftkings
Yandy Diaz
Yandy Diaz
TBvsMILBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.93
Edge−2.7%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.70
  • SeasonSeason average 1.17 across 154 games
-217 · draftkings
Sal Frelick
Sal Frelick
MILvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
UNDER0.5
Projection0.56
Edge+2.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.40
  • SeasonSeason average 0.72 across 109 games
+122 · draftkings
Christian Yelich
Christian Yelich
MILvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.74
Edge−1.8%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.89 across 117 games
-168 · draftkings
William Contreras
William Contreras
MILvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.97
Edge+1.5%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.90
  • SeasonSeason average 1.04 across 147 games
-201 · draftkings
Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio
MILvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection1.15
Edge+1.3%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 1.10
  • SeasonSeason average 1.20 across 127 games
-256 · draftkings
Garrett Mitchell
Garrett Mitchell
MILvsTBBatterHits
Small gap
OVER0.5
Projection0.72
Edge+0.1%
  • Recent formLast 10 games averaging 0.60
  • SeasonSeason average 0.84 across 144 games
-144 · draftkings
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Home runs live on the Power Board

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HR markets are high-variance and rated on a separate power-profile scale (barrel + park + matchup), not the standard High / Medium / Low tiers used here.

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