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Overview MLB· live NFL· week report NBA· Official Forecast record Parlays· pending snapshots

Results · one day

Thursday, October 1

Game by game

Every forecast graded for this day against the official result, by sport and game. Each sport keeps its own record — they are never added into one percentage. Pushes and voids are never losses.

MLB · 1–1 game calls

Full MLB record →

Model Performance:Winner →Total runs →Run line →

Not in this record, but still graded below: 1 call paused on the site or not shown before the game.

PHI @ ATL
Final · PHI 2 – 6 ATL
Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · MLB official linescore
Call Pick Outcome
Winner ATL (home) Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick UNDER 7.5 Loss
Run line (simulated ±1.5) PHI +1.5 Loss
Player-prop leans · model research, market context · 18–19 · 2 void →

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	ATL (home)	Win
Total runspaused on the site · not a public pick	UNDER 7.5	Loss
Run line (simulated ±1.5)	PHI +1.5	Loss

NFL · 0–1 game winners

Full NFL record →

Model Performance:Winner →

PIT @ CLE

Final · PIT 24 – 27 CLE

Official Forecast (pregame) →Verified final · official final score

Call	Pick	Outcome
Winner	PIT (away)	Loss

Player ranges · 31 of 35 finals landed inside the printed range

A coverage record, not wins and losses: a range is “inside” when the player's final landed within it as printed.

Player	Stat	Range	Final	Inside?
Jaylen Warren · PIT	Receptions	0–5	3	Inside
Jaylen Warren · PIT	Receiving yards	0–59	33	Inside
Jaylen Warren · PIT	Rushing yards	15–151	93	Inside
Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE	Receptions	1–8	3	Inside
Harold Fannin Jr. · CLE	Receiving yards	10–86	27	Inside
Quinshon Judkins · CLE	Receptions	0–5	6	Outside
Quinshon Judkins · CLE	Receiving yards	0–48	43	Inside
Quinshon Judkins · CLE	Rushing yards	11–106	53	Inside
KC Concepcion · CLE	Receptions	1–7	5	Inside
KC Concepcion · CLE	Receiving yards	8–78	64	Inside
KC Concepcion · CLE	Rushing yards	0–17	0	Inside
Denzel Boston · CLE	Receptions	1–6	4	Inside
Denzel Boston · CLE	Receiving yards	4–90	89	Inside
DK Metcalf · PIT	Receptions	1–7	5	Inside
DK Metcalf · PIT	Receiving yards	6–81	115	Outside
Roman Wilson · PIT	Receptions	1–5	3	Inside
Roman Wilson · PIT	Receiving yards	1–67	74	Outside
Pat Freiermuth · PIT	Receptions	0–5	3	Inside
Pat Freiermuth · PIT	Receiving yards	0–62	17	Inside
Raheim Sanders · CLE	Receptions	0–4	2	Inside
Raheim Sanders · CLE	Receiving yards	0–51	7	Inside
Raheim Sanders · CLE	Rushing yards	0–29	9	Inside
Michael Pittman Jr. · PIT	Receptions	0–4	2	Inside
Michael Pittman Jr. · PIT	Receiving yards	0–57	15	Inside
Dylan Sampson · CLE	Rushing yards	0–35	—	Not graded
Deshaun Watson · CLE	Rushing yards	4–81	22	Inside
Deshaun Watson · CLE	Passing yards	111–338	268	Inside
Jerry Jeudy · CLE	Receptions	0–5	3	Inside
Jerry Jeudy · CLE	Receiving yards	0–58	36	Inside
Darnell Washington · PIT	Receptions	0–4	3	Inside
Darnell Washington · PIT	Receiving yards	0–52	27	Inside
Germie Bernard · PIT	Receptions	0–4	2	Inside
Germie Bernard · PIT	Receiving yards	0–51	11	Inside
Aaron Rodgers · PIT	Rushing yards	0–26	0	Inside
Aaron Rodgers · PIT	Passing yards	113–334	299	Inside
Travis Homer · PIT	Rushing yards	0–22	-1	Outside
Shedeur Sanders · CLE	Rushing yards	0–23	—	Not graded

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

Each board is published once, before the day's first kickoff, from public model families only — never chosen after the results, never revised. A board shows fewer than five when fewer players qualify.

Published Wed, Sep 30, 8:33 PM ET · first kickoff Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

1. Jaylen Warren PIT v CLEDid not score
Projection 35.8% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
2. Harold Fannin Jr. CLE v PITScored
Projection 35% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
3. Quinshon Judkins CLE v PITScored
Projection 32.5% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 3 games on our boards
Game receipt →
4. KC Concepcion CLE v PITDid not score
Projection 29% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 0 of his last 2 games on our boards
Game receipt →
5. Denzel Boston CLE v PITDid not score
Projection 28.2% to score · no book line captured
Scored in 1 of his last 2 games on our boards
Game receipt →

NFL · Receptions · top 5

1. Harold Fannin Jr. CLE v PITInside the range · 3
Projection 4 rec (1–7) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 7 · 5 · 2 rec
Game receipt →
2. DK Metcalf PIT v CLEInside the range · 5
Projection 3 rec (1–6) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 3 · 4 · 4 rec
Game receipt →
3. Jerry Jeudy CLE v PITInside the range · 3
Projection 3 rec (1–6) · no book line captured
Last 2 games on our boards: 0 · 2 rec
Game receipt →
4. Pat Freiermuth PIT v CLEInside the range · 3
Projection 2 rec (0–4) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 2 · 4 · 5 rec
Game receipt →
5. Quinshon Judkins CLE v PITOutside the range · 6
Projection 2 rec (0–4) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 2 · 5 · 2 rec
Game receipt →

NFL · Rushing yards · top 5

1. Jaylen Warren PIT v CLEInside the range · 93
Projection 59 yds (15–151) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 127 · 43 · 46 yds
Game receipt →
2. Quinshon Judkins CLE v PITInside the range · 53
Projection 42 yds (11–106) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 70 · 21 · 33 yds
Game receipt →
3. Deshaun Watson CLE v PITInside the range · 22
Projection 25 yds (4–81) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 45 · 22 · 38 yds
Game receipt →
4. Dylan Sampson CLE v PITVoid · did not play
Projection 5 yds (0–35) · no book line captured
Last 1 game on our boards: 0 yds
Game receipt →
5. Raheim Sanders CLE v PITInside the range · 9
Projection 2 yds (0–29) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 17 · 4 · 1 yds
Game receipt →

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

1. Harold Fannin Jr. CLE v PITInside the range · 27
Projection 37 yds (7–85) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 51 · 54 · 21 yds
Game receipt →
2. DK Metcalf PIT v CLEOutside the range · 115
Projection 35 yds (5–84) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 31 · 27 · 40 yds
Game receipt →
3. Jerry Jeudy CLE v PITInside the range · 36
Projection 31 yds (5–76) · no book line captured
Last 2 games on our boards: 0 · 26 yds
Game receipt →
4. Pat Freiermuth PIT v CLEInside the range · 17
Projection 15 yds (0–52) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 30 · 32 · 46 yds
Game receipt →
5. Darnell Washington PIT v CLEInside the range · 27
Projection 14 yds (0–48) · no book line captured
Last 3 games on our boards: 67 · 7 · 18 yds
Game receipt →

Not eligible that day: Passing yards (estimate only).

MLB: no qualifying board — Player props are market context only — no MLB prop model has passed its bar, so none can make a board.
Premier League: no qualifying board — No player-prop model — Premier League forecasts are match results only.
UFC: no qualifying board — No fight-prop model — UFC forecasts are fight winners only.

Product cards settled this day

Every Bank Builder and Moonshot lane, each leg with its official score and grade — the receipts the product records are built from. Source: MLB Stats API official box score (feed/live), joined by gamePk. Paper-only.

Bank Builder · lane A
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Bank Builder · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane A
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.
Moonshot · lane B
No card placed
No card was placed for this lane on this day — it was awaiting its next qualified card, so nothing settled.

Suggested Parlays published this day

The MLB cards as published (one per risk level), each graded from the lab’s settled receipt — the same cards the published record counts. A card not yet settled is pending, never a loss. Paper-only.

Low Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Medium Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
High Risk
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.
Longshot
No card was published — no priced card in this tier on today's slate.

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks

Projection vs actual for every settled prop lean, graded for transparency and model development.

MLB

48.6%

18–19 on 37

Full MLB audit →

Biggest hits

MLBMichael Harris IIOver 1.5 Total Bases+17.6pp edgeactual 4
MLBMatt OlsonOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+14.3pp edgeactual 4
MLBMichael Harris IIOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+13.3pp edgeactual 5
MLBAustin RileyOver 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+10.7pp edgeactual 1
MLBJ.T. RealmutoUnder 0.5 Hits+9.4pp edgeactual 0

Biggest misses

MLBDrake BaldwinOver 1.5 Total Bases+21.2pp edgeactual 0
MLBBryson StottOver 1.5 Total Bases+17.2pp edgeactual 0
MLBDrake BaldwinOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+16.0pp edgeactual 0
MLBDrake BaldwinOver 0.5 Hits+11.5pp edgeactual 0
MLBBryson StottOver 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+10.7pp edgeactual 0

MLB settled games · projection vs actual

PHI @ ATL

18–1937 dec2 void48.6%

Player	Market	Lean / Line	Proj	Actual	Edge	Conf	Outcome
Trea Turner	Hits	Under 1.5	1.05	0	-3.0%	Low	Win
Alec Bohm	Hits	Under 0.5	0.86	1	-2.7%	Low	Loss
Drake Baldwin	Hits	Over 0.5	1.32	0	+11.5%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits	Over 0.5	1.21	1	+6.5%	High	Win
Bryce Harper	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	1	+1.1%	Low	Win
Bryson Stott	Hits	Over 0.5	1.09	0	+8.2%	High	Loss
Kyle Schwarber	Hits	Under 0.5	0.68	2	-0.1%	Low	Loss
Ozzie Albies	Hits	Under 0.5	0.65	1	+0.6%	Low	Loss
Matt Olson	Hits	Over 0.5	0.98	1	+7.2%	High	Win
Brandon Marsh	Hits	Under 0.5	0.69	0	-3.1%	Low	Win
J.T. Realmuto	Hits	Under 0.5	0.40	0	+9.4%	High	Win
Justin Crawford	Hits	Over 0.5	0.74	0	+1.4%	Low	Loss
Austin Riley	Hits	Over 0.5	0.69	0	+2.6%	Medium	Loss
Sean Murphy	Hits	Under 0.5	0.50	—	-2.6%	Low	Void
Bryan De La Cruz	Hits	Over 0.5	0.55	1	-2.0%	Low	Win
Mike Yastrzemski	Hits	Over 0.5	0.54	0	-2.0%	Low	Loss
Trea Turner	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.85	1	+0.2%	Low	Loss
Kyle Schwarber	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.65	3	+0.1%	Low	Win
Alec Bohm	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.64	2	+0.9%	Low	Win
Bryce Harper	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.89	1	+5.9%	High	Loss
Drake Baldwin	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.46	0	+16.0%	High	Loss
Michael Harris II	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.30	5	+13.3%	High	Win
Bryson Stott	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.99	0	+10.7%	High	Loss
Matt Olson	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	2.13	4	+14.3%	High	Win
Ozzie Albies	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.34	4	+0.4%	Low	Win
J.T. Realmuto	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Under 1.5	1.02	0	-1.3%	Low	Win
Brandon Marsh	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 1.5	1.48	0	+4.9%	Medium	Loss
Justin Crawford	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.24	0	+6.8%	High	Loss
Austin Riley	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.52	1	+10.7%	High	Win
Mike Yastrzemski	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.33	0	+10.1%	High	Loss
Bryan De La Cruz	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.17	1	+7.8%	High	Win
Sean Murphy	Hits + Runs + RBIs	Over 0.5	1.07	—	+3.5%	Medium	Void
Trea Turner	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.43	0	+1.5%	Low	Loss
Kyle Schwarber	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.34	2	+1.8%	Low	Win
Bryce Harper	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.57	2	+8.9%	High	Win
Alec Bohm	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.16	1	+0.5%	Low	Loss
Drake Baldwin	Total Bases	Over 1.5	2.11	0	+21.2%	Low	Loss
Michael Harris II	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.94	4	+17.6%	High	Win
Bryson Stott	Total Bases	Over 1.5	1.74	0	+17.2%	High	Loss

all settled dates

Game by game

MLB · 1–1 game calls

PHI @ ATL

NFL · 0–1 game winners

PIT @ CLE

Daily Top 5 · frozen before kickoff

NFL · Anytime touchdown · top 5

NFL · Receptions · top 5

NFL · Rushing yards · top 5

NFL · Receiving yards · top 5

Product cards settled this day

Bank Builder · lane A

Bank Builder · lane B

Moonshot · lane A

Moonshot · lane B

Suggested Parlays published this day

Low Risk

Medium Risk

High Risk

Longshot

Model research · player-prop leans, not public picks